Sunflower Seeds market report can be viewed here >> Sunflower Seed 16.7.18 <<
UK shipments of Californian Raisins for June 2018 are down 86% against June 2017. Only 115mt were shipped in the month of June against 825mt from the previous year!
The Raisin Administrative Commitee June 2018 shipment report of Natural (sun-dried) Seedless (NS) Raisins shows that domestic shipments (including Canada) were 10,806 packed tons, compared to 17,715 tons in 2017 (-39%). Year-to-date domestic shipments are 152,937 packed tons compared to 180,214 tons at this time in 2017 (-15%).
NS export shipments (without Canada) for June 2018 were 5,440 packed tons, compared to 9,008 tons in 2017 (-40%). YTD export shipments are 82,881 packed tons, compared to 100,087 tons a year ago, a decrease of -17%.
NS shipments to all destinations year-to-date are 235,808 packed tons, compared to 280,302 packed tons for last year (-16%).
Top 20 Destinations for June
|June Rank||Destination||Tonnage||Previous Rank||YTD Tonnage
Chelmer Foods is now importing and supplying Cashew Nuts
The cashew market has been taking an upwards turn now after it recently hit bottom, many factories have gone under as there is no liquidity available in the market, good kernel quality is still very difficult to come by.
Shippers have now come back to renegotiate pricing on raw seed that has been left sitting at the port.
Buyers are urged to proceed with caution when approaching small – midsize shippers as quality can drastically vary.
We are expecting to see this market move higher as negotiations continue on raw seed and each day shippers have been withdrawing offers for higher levels.
The US market has started their purchasing for 4th quarter and will continue in the coming weeks.
Please let us know if you have any demand you are seeking.
The Almonds Board of California has released the June Almond Position Report with shipments of +156.7 million pounds compared to last year’s 177 million pounds for a decrease of -11.5 percent. This report has been expected to be slightly lower, as last year we had extremely large shipments and this year our inventory is lacking and limited at this time due to our strong shipments throughout this past season.
- Domestic 62.28 million lbs -4.6%
- Export 94.49 million lbs -15.4%
- New sales in June were 104,350,755 lbs
- Crop plus carry in is now 92.6% sold
YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS: Are now + 2.107 billion pounds compared to last years’ 1.946 billion pounds for a whopping increase of +8.26 percent!
Crop receipts are holding steady at 2.259 billion pounds for the 2017 crop.
The 2018 Crop estimate is now at 2.45 billion pounds, up from the subjective crop estimate in May of 2.30 billion pounds. Harvest appears to be 5-7 days later than recent years by some growers estimations.
With the higher crop estimate, we have seen all prices weaken by 5-10 cents per lbs. in the past week. Inventories of current crop SSR/STD material is extremely limited and there is better availability of larger size NPX/NPS at this time. Buyers and sellers have started participating in new crop sales with these newer price levels to spread some risks and organise some contracts on the books.
The shipments for July should be strong/solid as most packers are cleaning out their inventories and buyers are attempting to lock in shipments for the transition period with the expected later harvest.
Domestic sales in America have dropped by 35 % last month (31% down overall). If sales continue to drop it is likely that we will see some kind of price correction in January/February. This is likely to be welcome news to exports markets. However this may be too late for processors to adjust grower contracts and in turn it may be a case that they will be forced into high priced grower contracts at very high prices and the results may be continued market share losses in all markets.
Right now we are looking at about 70,000 ton carryout on July 31. Not all of this tonnage is marketable. It can be estimated that about 30% is not marketable. Therefore, there should be about 50,000 tons that is good fruit. Almost 40% of this fruit belongs to Sun-Maid so the balance of around 30,000 tons will be split between the other 12 or so processors. Everyone is going to be running on fumes by the end of July and going forward will only be worse until the new crop is delivered and in the hands of the processors.
Prices will remain high until California on the whole realises the higher prices are causing huge losses in market share.
Field prices are being reported near $2400-$2600 per short ton for new crop. This would put the selling prices near $1.70-$1.80. This could be another disastrous year for 2018 in the California Raisin Industry.
The forecast for the 2018 crop will be near 240,000 tons. Given the carryout at 70,000 tons, the total availability will be 310,000 tons. This is still 30,000 tons less than last year.
- Exports in June were 3,967 tons, compared to 4,981 tons last year
- Exports year to date are 91,386 tons compared to 82,822 tons last year
- Average export price for whole apricots for June was $3096/ton FOB compared to $3220/ton last year.
Exports are tapering off as remaining quantity of clean apricots comes to an end. Only small fruit and blemished fruit remains. Expectation for the final exported tonnage to be 96,000 tons with 10,000 tons domestic consumption and a carryover of small and industrial fruit of 10,000 to 15,000 tons only.
Harvest is in full swing. The weather dried up just in time, and current and forecast weather is perfect for drying. Roughly half the crop is blemished with hail and speckling due to the stormy weather during May and June.
Prices offered by juice companies for blemished fruit are once again very low, and some of the worst quality is not being harvested. There will again be a higher proportion of the crop un sulphured as blemishes are less visible on natural apricots, therefore a lower percentage of sulphured apricots available.
Prices for unblemished fresh fruit have been trading at almost double last years prices, at a healthy Tl 2 to Tl 3 per Kg depending on size and quality.
Of the 100,000 to 110,000 tons dry equivalent that we think will be harvested, 30% will be natural, and of the remaining 70% there will be 50,000 to 60,000 tons of clean fruit.
We see a similar scenario as last year developing where clean fruit becomes increasingly harder to find as the season progresses, and prices rise as a result, with lower quality and industrial prices lagging behind. Natural apricots are likely to continue to trade at a discount to sulphured. Prices have opened higher than last years opening but lower than the mid season prices, we think the market is well priced at this level, and buyers of quality fruit are advised to book early.
A few small lots of new crop have come to market this week, and have seen strong demand at the same prices as old crop finished off, in the region of $3300 for size 4.
The government continues to develop its price support scheme where apricots may be delivered by growers to a central depot against an official receipt that they will be able to borrow against, meaning growers are not forced to sell to raise cash at times they believe prices are low. The warehouse is expected to be ready towards the end of the calendar year. Similar schemes in the distant past have not been a great success, but in the short term they may further reduce the amount of apricots in the market.
The elections are passed, and the ruling party has consolidated it position. The currency was initially buoyed by the results but gains have reversed this week as the international markets are unhappy with the choice of ministers just announced. Rating agencies are expected to react negatively, keeping pressure on the Lira. It is currently trading at 4.81 to the $.
Green banana deliveries has been less than half of the volume some packers have expected, the availability of bananas, have again, started to become short. The reasons behind the shortage is because of heavy rainfall in the farm areas and many farmers have held out harvesting their bananas to prevent prices from falling further. Green banana prices may have already found the bottom levels.
We can empathise with the farmers since they live mostly hand to mouth on a daily basis to feed their families. It is good business practice that there should be a reason and / or motivation for the farmers to go on with their banana cultivation, and not to cut down their planted bananas in favour of other fruits or crops due to falling banana prices.
Volatilities can spark “any day between now to August / September time” which is a nearby now.
Please note that those (Sept up to early 2019) are usually China peak season months leading to Chinese New Year (early 2019) wherein China purchases in full force. This is the traditional yearly peak season sales.
Additionally, the typhoon season months for the Philippines are July to September. These are big risks for volatility since one typhoon can game change the farm situation, as we have seen before in banana chip prices. It can be an impetus for the fresh fruit traders from Luzon to come back aggressively to buy bananas in the farms if their own crops in Luzon are devastated again by typhoons.
It would be a good time for you to lock in now, for August / September orders, while prices remain competative.
The 2018 californian almond objective estimate of 2.45 billion lbs is an increase on this years earlier subjective report in May, with a +6.5% boost, its also a 7.9% step-up on 2017 crop.
Production from non pareil variety is forcaste at 910 million lbs, the lowest since 2005 down 0.8% and 21% below the 20 year average. the Nonpareil variety represents 37% of Californias total almond production. This all demonstrates the inpact of February’s frosty weather on what could have been a larger crop.
2.45 is good news and will allow the industry to continue growing demand for Almonds, although many traders in Europe have been working on these estimations for some time.
The market generally remains unchanged in Turkey, however after the recent elections and and reelection of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the Lira recovered about 3%, which was less than the expectation. Prices in €/$ increased accordingly.
Exporters Union specialists are in the fields for the crop estimate which should be known within the next fortnight.
It’s already it’s reported that there are no special risks of cimiciato (hazelnut bug damage) nor mildew. The nuts seem to be of a larger size (less premium for 13/15 but less discount for small nuts can be expected).
We can be assured there will be plenty of availability of hazelnuts for the new crop.
The market drivers will be exchange rates, on one side the Lira, can it recover now the financial markets have less reason to fear political uncertainty and on the other side the politics of TMO; this will depend on the market price and social atmosphere at the time growers begin to market there new crop material; end August/September.
Pumpkin – Forecast to have significantly lower planting figures this crop due to low prices and weak market. Farmers likely to move into better cash crops such as Soya and Corn, particularly as they think the trade war with the US could see bean and corn prices rise.
Millet – Too early to tell what the plantings are going to be. A better picture will emerge in a couple of weeks.
Sunflower – Less acreage being planted, buoyant oilseed market, poor crop in Argentina, very dry conditions in Eastern Europe and the strong Dollar v Euros is all combining to put a bullish twist
Poppy – Lack of rain plus a bout of root weevil which attacks young plants early has pushed the market up €50/pmt since last week
Linseeds – YOY plantings will be very similar, although there will be no carry-over we expect the market to be similar.