Market Report wc 23-5-16 << click here for our PDF market report.
Chelmer Foods – Market Report 16.5.2016 << click here for our PDF market report.
UNEXPECTED RAIN AFFECTS THE CHILEAN WALNUT INDUSTRY
A few days ago, the country’s main walnut production areas were affected by intense precipitation,
which started on Thursday, April 14th and continued until Monday the 18th. Normally, during the
month of April the central part of Chile only experiences minor showers. According to the Chilean
Meteorology Department, in the region of Valparaíso, the average rainfall over the past 10 years has
been 13mm; in Santiago, 10mm; in O’Higgins, 21mm and in Maule, 32mm. The two weather fronts
that hit our country left behind precipitation far above the numbers mentioned above, with
maximum levels reaching 100mm in Valparaíso, 145mm in the Metropolitan Region, 362mm in
O’Higgins and 109mm in Maule.
The rain happened to coincide with harvesting season for the Chandler variety, which,
according to estimates from the Chilean Walnut Commission, represents over 70% of Chile’s
planted surface area when it comes to walnuts. Other varieties, such as Serr, had been 80%
harvested when the rain hit, which means they will be less affected.
Chandler harvesting had begun just one week ago, therefore, we estimate that only 25%
had been harvested before the rain. This indicates that the volume of walnuts that could
have been affected by the intense rainfall is between 35,000 and 40,000 tons.
One effect that must be taken into account due to the precipitation is a decrease in
production volume. The exact degree of this drop will be assessed over the next few weeks.
On the other hand, it is also important to note that the availability of the Extra Light color and
of lighter tones in general will also decrease because of this unexpected weather situation,
affecting both cracked and inshell walnuts. In addition, inshell walnuts’ exterior appearance
will also be affected.
Source: Chilean Walnut Commission
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The Walnut Board of California has released the March Monthly Shipment Report:
March of 2016 compared to March 2015 Shipments- March 2016 shipments were 47,955 Inshell equivalent tons compared to 49,863 Inshell equivalent tons last year. Representing an decrease of 4%.
Year to date Shipments 2015/2016 vs. 2014/2015 Marketing Year- Inshell Equivalent Tonnage for the 2015/2016 crop is 416,169 compared to 369,726 last year. Representing an increase of 46,443 inshell equivalent tons or +13%
Year to date Export Shipments – 298,107 Inshell tons, compared to 254,053 inshell tons last year, representing a 17% increase
CROP RECEIPTS- Receipts are 600,147 Inshell tons as of March 31st 2016. . The CASS Crop Estimate was at 575,000 Inshell tons.
New crop. Very early reports on the crop are that the earliest variety, the Serr’s are coming in very nicely and big. With that being said, it is way too early to predict the crop size on the new Walnut Crop.
Pricing –. All light material, LHP Chandler 20, 40% and 80% has risen in price over the last 2- 3 weeks. The demand for light material and very limited tonnage available has put some pressure on those items and some handlers have moved up their pricing ideas by 20-30 cents. There is still some light material available, but is being held back for contracts that are already on the books. The handlers that do not have cold storage have sold the last of their loads and are looking to be done by May or early June. If you need Chandler material, we would look to book those needs very soon before the HOT summer months in California.
Chile: Please advise us if you are wishing to inquire on either Chilean inshell or kernels, we can assist you.
The Almond Board of California has released the March Almond Position Report with shipments of +161million pounds compared to last year’s +190 million pounds for a decrease of 15.3 percent.
Last year, we had a record shipment month due to the resolution of the port slowdown/strike in the west coast of the USA. This shipment report is considered a good report when compared to the shipments of the past few years. The shipments of 161 million pounds is the third (3rd) highest shipment month we have ever had. Most industry experts expected a shipment number of 150 to 160 million pounds.
YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS: +1.153 billion pounds compared to last year +1.248 billion pounds for a decrease of 7.65 percent.
CURRENCY: The 1 Euro is now at $1.13 dollars.
NEW CROP: The new crop continues to develop with our excellent weather conditions in California. Temperatures in March and April have been relatively cool with sporadic rains each week providing excellent growing conditions. Kernels are developing and sizing at this time. Industry experts believe the pollinators , Carmel/Monterey/Butte/Padre/Cal varieties ,all look excellent while the Nonpareils are mentioned with some orchards looking good and others looking average. Industry experts offer various opinions on the new crop being between +2.0 to 2.15 billion pounds. An unofficial estimate was released today at +2.06 billion pounds.
INVENTORY: The California packers primarily have larger size Cal/Carmel and Nonpareil varieties remaining inventory. Most small sizes have been sold already.
PRICING: The market prices have stabilized during the recent weeks. Many markets have entered and are purchasing for near-by shipments and new crop shipments. The following markets have all been active in buying: USA, China, India, Europe, and Middle East. The unofficial crop estimate will stabilize the market and most likely firm the market by 5-10 cents per pound.
APRIL SHIPMENTS: Last year shipments were extremely strong as we were still catching up after the port strike/slowdowns in California. Thus, we expect the April shipments to be slightly lower than last years.
Exports for March were well ahead of expectations at 6,581 tons compared to 3,953 tons last year, an increase of 66%
Exports year to date are 58,494 tons compared to 36,825 last year, an increase of 59%
Total consumption including domestic is approximately 63,000 tons with total supply at 80,000 tons, leaving 17,000 tons for the last 4 months of the season. It looks tight.
Following three nights of frost during the middle of March, the weather has now settled down to normal. It is unclear how much damage has been done by the frost, with estimates ranging between 30% and 60%,and with another 3 weeks of potential frost risk, it is still to early to put a number on the new crop, but if things go well for the rest of April, then we would expect total availability to be a little ahead of last year.
Please see the below market information from one of our Turkish Apricot suppliers:
During Mid March we had a few serious frost in Malatya . Since the first incident more frost damage news/rumours have been heard from different regions. So it looks that we will be spending April with frost arguments as well. To understand real effects and size of the damage we must see the situation in May with a nice hot weather . Before we see the young fruit on the trees we can never be sure that which areas and which orchards are effected and which ones are good. Some says 20% some say 50% of the crop have been damaged. In fact these rates never make any sense. We are not sure about the size of a healthy unaffected crop so it is not easy to calculate at this stage.
It looks that majority of the growers also believe that enough fruit is there. Last week we saw plenty of raw material in the bazaar market and prices has declined. Although Turkish Lira is stronger sale prices compared to two weeks ago have decreased. Yesterday and today the market is more or less balanced. Delivered goods are sold in the bazaar market and growers are not in rush to sell their goods any more.
Until end of the April we still have additional frost risk. Today I can say it is very likely that we will have around 100.000 tons of Dried Apricots but it is indeed very early to make any well directed estimation.
From now on until new Crop we expect a a stable market with small fluctuations. Ramadan demand is approaching and we have more than enough big sizes to cover these demands. It is still very difficult to find small sizes and the quality is very bad.
On Saturday morning there was frost in several regions. We can say roughly 100 thousand acre (1000m2) was affected severely. This is 1/10 of the total region.
Considering the fact that this an early frost, the vineyards will most definitely give new births. The second births aren’t as productive as the first ones but most definitely they are going to save some serious part of the damage.
For the above reasons, we believe the frost didn’t really decrease the quantity of the crop. Other than that yet all looks well.
Due to the very warm weather conditions on February. Vineyards are early. After couple of days of cold weather last week the weather heated up again. So the vineyards are growing on full speed. The risk for frost remains until end of April. Please remember last year frost came 24th of April. And that the late frosts don’t recover with new births. For the short period ahead we don’t see a risk on the weather conditions.