News

South African Field Report January 2016

Vine Fruit:

The weather has been extremely hot the last month in Upington… and then it started to rain over the week end.

Since then it has been wet and cloudy, definitely not ideal conditions for the crop. Our initial view is that the crop may be reduced by 5 000 tons to 50 000 tons (vs 60 000 tons produced in 2015), but by next week, when dry weather has been forecasted we will have a better idea.fruit2

Initially we planned to offer some volumes this week, but it will be very risky, bearing in mind up to 150 mm has been reported in some areas. I would rather want to delay once we have a better picture regarding the crop.

Some exporters did offer volumes long in advance, but we would rather follow a more cautious approach as we do not want to offer significant volumes of product still to be harvested. Some product will be offered once we have a better feel what was the impact of the rain on the crop.  The rain will reduce availability of the lighter color product. The impact on quality will be determined by next week.

OR sultanas will be limited due to the lower grading farmers receive for this product. We do expect some WP sultanas to be dried this year.

The currant crop, produced in Vredendal, will be smaller than PY, due to hot weather experienced during blossom time.

 

Tree Fruit:

The apricot crop is much smaller than previous year and we are cautious in offering . The pear and peach volumes as well as quality should be similar vs PY. Limited volumes of mango will also be available this year.

date:  Jan 28, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on South African Field Report January 2016
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Dessicated Coconut market update

Market update from European traders:

Unchanged market

JANUARY 18, 2016coconut1

So crude oil continues to weaken even further and with news of Iran’s oil production will now enter the world market its moving even lower. Dropping on trading today below $28 a barrel. So whilst Palm Production is starting to slip mainly caused by ‘El Nino’ prices are falling as demand for edible oils weakens because of the crude oil price. Coconut oil prices are rising slightly as lower crops impacts prices but weaken edible oils in general is keeping prices from running away. Coconut oil does not share the same bio-fuel demand so its not as susceptible to weak crude as Palm Oil is. Low nuts supply is slowly forcing up prices.

Desiccated prices are slowly climbing as well. There have been rumors swirling round of a number of containers of desiccated contaminated with Salmonella in Germany which is driving some buyers to the safety of Philippine material. SO whilst prices from Indonesia are rising Philippine prices are rising faster. Only Sri Lanka price is dipping as very low freight rates and weak Middle East demand push there prices lower.

January 17, 2016

The market is overall firmer than it was last week. Philippines – Prices are definitely showing signs of firming up here. Many factories are are abstaining from offers. All factories are completely sold out for Jan deliveries and many are fully committed for Feb as well. In all likelihood should an order be placed today in the Philippines, if one is lucky a delivery would be made in Feb, but more than likely deliveries will either be 2nd half feb or roll over into March. Supplies are without doubt a problem with mills struggling to secure raw nuts for production of DC, Coconut oil and other coconut related products. Indonesia – the supply situation in Indonesia is even worse than that of the Philippines and all mills continue to struggle to secure adequate supplies of raw materials to run their factories. Many are producing intermittently based on arrival of raw nuts. Delays in shipments are being experienced and is to be expected further as we get on in the month. Like the Philippines, many factories are reluctant to quote but for those who are quoting, we are seeing a price escalation week on week of between USD100/mt to USD200/mt depending on the mill. Vietnam – supplies are low and they are dealing with huge demand coming from their behemoth of a neighbor China for the upcoming Chinese New Year festivities. Factories are having their limited available capacities taken up by Chinese demand which is usually a border based trade. Sri Lanka – prices here have shown some signs of ease. This however is not something to be surprised with because Sri Lankan pricing prior to the holidays were at record highs ie much higher than any other origin, and all that is happening now is that prices are rationalizing to more realistic market levels. The oil market remains firm, particularly that of Coconut oil which is outperforming even Palm Oil. One has to consider that in a period of relatively low demand which is typical at the beginning of a year, prices are still firming. What will happen when demand begins in earnest? All signs and signals still point to market prices moving northwards as we get on in the 1st quarter and we would think that if one has a requirement it is better to buy now than wait in anticipation of the market going down because on the face of it, this does not seem likely in any origin.

January 12, 2016

Looking at the nut and dried fruit markets over the last couple of years, many could be described as volatile, erratic or unstable. Almond prices continue to rise, driven by lack of rain in the main producer California. Hazelnut prices have fallen sharply, after rising to an all-time high in May. Turkish sultana prices are significantly higher this year due to a damaging spring frost. While dried apricot prices have been falling from last year’s peak. Desiccated coconut is no exception, with a largely unpredictable trend over the past couple of years.

desiccated coconut prices

The Philippines is the main global exporter of desiccated coconut, accounting for more than a third of exports. Early in 2014, Philippine desiccated coconut prices rose sharply in response to the destruction left by Typhoon Haiyan. The typhoon caused catastrophic damage to agriculture and infrastructure in the Philippines and resulted in a large number of fatalities. This year, prices have fallen to pre-Haiyan levels, plummeting 45% since the beginning of the year. To understand why the prices have fallen, we need to consider several factors.

The price of desiccated coconut closely follows the price of coconut oil. When the price of coconut oil rises, desiccated coconut prices will soon follow and vice versa, as they compete for the same raw material — raw coconut. The price of coconut oil is largely driven by price trends in other vegetable oil markets, in particular palm oil, due to the oil’s interchangeability. In addition, the price of crude oil can be a factor as vegetable oils are also used in renewable fuels.

With crude oil prices falling dramatically over the past eighteen months, the demand for vegetable oils as a source of biofuel has fallen. There has been a pressure from palm oil and palm kernel oil markets due to ample supplies, with prices of both oils falling by 55% and 50% between March 2014 and September 2015. The combination of these factors has contributed to lower coconut oil prices and consequently led to lower desiccated coconut prices.

There have also been some aggressive selling strategies from smaller producers in Indonesia, Sri Lanka or Vietnam, which have further supported the downward trend in the desiccated coconut markets.

In the past few weeks, however, the price fall has slowed, with El Niño cited as the main reason. Dry weather in parts of Southeast Asia has driven palm oil prices upwards and, with coconut trees believed to be affected by the lack of rain, the price of desiccated coconut seems to have plateaued for the time being.

Crude oil

JANUARY 11, 2016

At the moment crude oil seems to be driving the direction of the market. Crude oil rallied slightly last week but again issues with China are weighing heavily pushing prices down, In fact some analysts are now even talking about $20 a barrel being possible. So whilst Palm Oil crops are reducing so is the demand for Palm as a Bio Fuel. Some believe that this will only lead to a bigger jump in Palm oil prices later in the year. Coconut oil prices have been rising even with low Palm Oil prices as lower crops have been constricting supply.

Desiccated prices have been rising since the start of the year. Low supply of nuts has been pushing up prices since the end of last year and is continuing now. Today tales of price increases in Indonesia of $100-200 per mt. Only Sri Lanka has reported prices falling but prices there were much higher then other origins anyway.

date:  Jan 27, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Dessicated Coconut market update
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

What’s happening with Pumpkin?

Prices have dropped quickly these last months and many packers are searching for options to sell.

Quality is still good in the market and also for the packers it is quite easy to buy good raw material from the farmers.

At the moment we do not see any indications why prices should rise again, but there is a possibility that after Chinese new year more people will start with buying which will make the prices increase again.

If you need to cover material, we think it is a very interesting period to buy.

Also for longer spreads.hugh

Since business is unsure at the moment, packers are willing to close some long term contracts simply to ensure their businesses for a longer term.

As we move further into 2016, stocks will slowly come under pressure which will have influence on the price later on. We expect that this will be visible in the price after April.

 

In case you have questions of enquiries, do not hesitate and contact us via hugh@chelmerfoods.com

date:  Jan 25, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on What’s happening with Pumpkin?
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Update on the Sunflower market…

As we all know we had a warm first half of the winter season, due of tsunflowerhis warm period the sunflower demand decreased the last two months.

We have seen a price decrease of about 20 euro/mt during December and January.

Many packers and farmers are searching for opportunities to push there material these days.

Some of them are even offering near to there costs price to make sure the factories can keep running.

Last week it finally become more cold and maybe the real winter has arrived.

We expect that now winter is there the demand on the sunflower in increase again.

We believe that we have reached the bottom of the price for this crop and that we slowly get back to higher levels.

Our advise is to cover your sunflower in this period, to be ensured of material, good quality and a interesting price.

For any enquiries, contact hugh@chelmerfoods.com

date:  Jan 25, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Update on the Sunflower market…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Currant prices steady…

The Greek currant market remains unchanged with offers of good quality Provincial fruit available between EUR1,350-1,400 (USD1,462-1,517) per tonne fob Piraeus, with premium grades such as Vostizza at a premium of EUR100-150/tonne on this figure.019

The use of Greek currants has seen a resurgence over the past few months due to their very competitive price. Progress in the longer term seems likely to be slow as this year Greece has recorded a much smaller tonnage due to earlier weather problems. If present demand continues, there should be sufficient fruit available to meet forward orders until the new crop becomes available in September. Prices of Greek currants are expected to remain stable up until this time. The increase in the value of the euro against sterling has had a negative impact on the costs of currants for UK buyers, but even so currants still remain the cheapest of the three types of vine fruit traditionally used for Easter baking. This year sees the earliest Easter holiday for many years, which means that there will be a shorter time for retailers and manufacturers to market and sell traditional Easter bakery products such as hot cross buns. This may reduce demand for vine fruits but hot cross buns, Simnel cakes and other seasonal lines still retain their popularity.

Credit… Andrew Ciclitira

date:  Jan 22, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Currant prices steady…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish sultana sales start to pick up…

Sources in Izmir, Turkey, report that sales of Turkish sultanas have started to increase for the new year, which is positive news for the Turkish dried fruit industry.

Offers of Turkish sultanas vary from packer to packer and in some instances depend on a particular company’s strategy or willingness to sell. Some offersingredients2 of sultanas have now been seen below USD1,900 per tonne fob whilst others have risen above USD2,000/tonne fob. It is therefore difficult to predict where the market will go and much will depend on any information about the size and quality of this year’s new crop of sultanas and raisins. Pedictions are that the crop will be a larger one if weather conditions remain favourable. The downside is there is unlikely to be a significant carry-over of unsold fruit from the previous year, as was the case last season, so prices could theoretically open at the same levels as at the close of the season. If unsold fruit does start to become short in the coming months, both farmers and packers may have an opportunity to hold back their stocks, so increasing export prices. The volatility of the currency markets will also have a major impact going forward with most financial experts predicting a stronger US dollar against both the Turkish lira and sterling. Buyers do therefore need to consider their requirements of Turkish fruit up until the new crop as it would seem more probable for prices to increase rather than fall from today’s levels.

Credit… Andrew Ciclitira

date:  Jan 22, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish sultana sales start to pick up…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Inventory Position Reports for Raisins/Almonds/Walnuts from California from Fresh Pacific…

Raisins

The industry is still trying to finalize the 2016 field price. Between the August 1 beginning inventory of 132,000 tons plus deliveries by independent g019rowers, the packers have enough inventory to take them through February. This is why it has taken so long to arrive at a 2016 grower field prices.

Wholesale prices will be very close to $1.00 to $1.05 CNF Asian/Pacific Ports. We do forecast slow increases in prices as we head towards 2016 crop.

Another 20,000 acres will probably be pulled out this year. The steady decline in bearing acreage will leave less and less tonnage available for export.

Next year’s crop will probably be closer to 300,000 than to 350,000 tons. With these numbers the 2016 field will definitely be higher.

Current reduction in sales of 8% will be offset by increased government purchases. Right now the US government will be purchasing about 20,000 tons in total for the 2015/2016 marketing year.

 

WalnutsPicture 1089

December sales were very good. The walnut industry will also be the benefactors of a government purchase. We have not seen the US Government solicitation but it is estimated to be between 15,000 and 20,000 tons. With the increase in sales and the US Government purchase it should dramatically decrease the carryout inventory into 2016. If the industry was able to hold 15% increase in sales, the carryout would be closer to historical averages. The industry must remain competitive because the 2016 crop may also be a fairly large crop because of the new bearing acreage. Chandler prices should start strengthening slightly. Non-Chandler products remain very competitive.

Almonds

Almond sales continue to trend down over last year’s sales. At today’s average decline of 12% , the 2016 Carryout would be the highest ever at over 575 million pounds or 27% of the 1.8 billion pound estimate. Right now grower deliveries have slightly exceeded the 2015 estimate. Prices are now trending closer to $3.00 rather than $4.00. We expect the Almond prices to continue to decline but not as much as they have over the past couple months.

date:  Jan 13, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Inventory Position Reports for Raisins/Almonds/Walnuts from California from Fresh Pacific…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Almonds… Position Report and Global Update

Report >>December 2015 Position Report <<

The Almond Board of California has released the Almond Position Report for December with shipments of  135.4  million pounds compared to  148.1  million pounds last year for a decrease of   8.6% percent.

The shipment numbers were released yesterday evening ( local time ) , receipts are at 1.85 billion which is up by 2.47 %. Exports are down 7.4%, domestic is down by 11% total down by 8.6%.Commitments are up by 10% which came a bit of a surprise.

Shipments for December:

  • Domestic-                                  -11%
  • Export-                                        -7.4%nuts2

 Western Europe                      +2%

  • Asia/Pacific                               -5%
  • Middle East                               -26%
  • Spain-                                          -8%
  • Germany-                                   -17%
  • China-                                          +18%
  • India-                                           +2%
  • United Arab Emirates            -71%

 YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:  Are at 707 million pounds compared to last year at 803 million pounds for a decrease of   11.88 percent.

 CROP RECEIPTS:  +1.85 billion pounds.  We will most likely see the final crop in the range of 1.87- 1.88 billion pounds. The total crop may be between  1.88 and 1.92 billion pounds, if we take into account that last year we got receipts of 60 million pounds between Jan and Aug 2015.

 

CURRENCY:  The Euro is now at $1.09 dollars.  Dollar has strengthened against many of the emerging market currencies.

 

MARKETS:  Where to begin?  The world stock markets started the new year off with the largest 4 day drop in history, to see all stock markets take  a major drop!  Focus has shifted to the economies of many emerging markets.  Hopefully the over reactions has resolved themselves now.

 

PRICES:  We have witnessed a correction in the almond prices during the past month with almond prices slipping due to weaker shipment information combined with California now receiving rain and chill hours.  The lowering of almond prices has brought in a new wave of buyers taking advantage of these new levels.  Markets being active during the past week have been USA, China, Europe, and Middle East.

 

RAIN/SNOW:  The rains have started arriving weekly.  Parts of the valley are above average for their annual rainfall season to date and other areas are slightly behind.  The big news is the snow pack in the mountains which is ahead of schedule.  Snow pack will assist to fill the water reservoirs.  The mood in California is improving with each new storm which arrives.  We have another rain storm forecast for Wednesday and then another this coming weekend.

 

 

 

 

date:  Jan 13, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Almonds… Position Report and Global Update
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Sultanas Market Update…

We started new year with low price and this week the market price is getting higher again.

You can see below differences between weeks and years both price and quantity.ingredients2

Between 09/01/2015 and 09/01/2016 , The exported quantity have reached 82.316 mt with an average price of 2.141 usd / ton.  Last season  (2014 crop) at the same date, the exported quantity was 117.465 mt with an average price of 1.814 usd / ton.

Lets look at compare by week this year and last year first week of January;

03/01/ 2015-09/01/2015  ;  4.060 mt was exported with average price of usd 1.773 / ton.  And  same week  03/01/2016-09/01/2016 ; 1.962 mt was shipped with average price of  2.177 usd / ton.

The market results shows us crop quantity is affected the market price and the price is effected the exported range too much..

date:  Jan 12, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Sultanas Market Update…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

CALIFORNIA WALNUT REPORT +30% Shipments for December

The Walnut Board of California has released the December Monthly Shipment Report:

December of 2015 compared to December 2014 Shipments– December 2015 shipments were 66,315 Inshell equivalent tons compared to 51,085 Inshell equivalent tons last year. Representing an increase of 30%!

Year to date Shipments 2015/2016 vs. 2014/2015 Marketing Year– Inshell Equivalent Tonnage for the 2015/2016 crop is 274,122  compared to 246,811 last year.  Representing an increase of 27,311 inshell equivalent tons for + 11.0%.

–    North America Shipments – for the month of December 2015 were down 8.0%

–    Export Shipments – for the month of December 2015 were UP 53.0%

 –    Domestic US- Shelled  – for the month of December 2015 were down 11.25%nuts1

–    Europe- Shelled – for the month of December 2015 were  UP 41.06%

–    Middle East/Africa Shelled– for the month of December 2015 were UP 74.92%

–    Asia/Pacific Rim Inshell-– for the month of December 2015 were UP 39.23%

  CROP RECEIPTSReceipts are 598,311 Inshell tons as of December  31st , 2015.  The CASS Crop Estimate was at 575,000 Inshell tons. The actual crop was 3.9% larger than the estimate

Crop –  New crop harvest is complete and the crop receipts  on this report are good indication on overall crop size.

Rain: California continues to receive rain and snow this past week. Parts of the valley are ahead of schedule for rain compared to their annual averages at this time while others are  close to normal.  Snow pack in the mountains continues to grow with each new storm. The meteorologists are predicting another rain storm for Wednesday and then more rain is forecasted for next week.   They are estimating the next storms will bring another inch of rain to the Sacramento area.  The 9th biggest reservoir in California, Folsom Reservoir, raised 28.4 feet in the month of December.

 Pricing  – Pricing has leveled off over the past few weeks, and has been stable. China has been active on inshell and Europe/Middle East has begun to inquire and buy their LHP Chandler and Non-Chandler items.  Packers are in a nice sold position on their LHP Chandler material, especially LHP Chandler 80%, their Inshell Chandler, and Inshell Hartley’s.   The market has been steady on those items.

If you have any demand for any specific items please advise us so we may assist you.

 

date:  Jan 12, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on CALIFORNIA WALNUT REPORT +30% Shipments for December
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More
Page 10 of 23« First...89101112...20...Last »