News

Almonds June Shipment Report

The Almonds Board of California has released the June Almond Position Report with shipments of +156.7 million pounds compared to last year’s 177 million pounds for a decrease of -11.5 percent.  This report has been expected to be slightly lower, as last year we had extremely large shipments and this year our inventory is lacking and limited at this time due to our strong shipments throughout this past season.

  • Domestic             62.28 million lbs               -4.6%
  • Export                  94.49 million lbs               -15.4%
  • New sales in June were 104,350,755 lbs
  • Crop plus carry in is now 92.6% sold

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:  Are now + 2.107 billion pounds compared to last years’ 1.946  billion pounds for a whopping increase of  +8.26  percent!

Crop receipts are holding steady at 2.259 billion pounds for the 2017 crop.

The 2018 Crop estimate is now at 2.45 billion pounds, up from the subjective crop estimate in May of 2.30 billion pounds.  Harvest appears to be 5-7 days later than recent years by some growers estimations.

With the higher crop estimate, we have seen all prices weaken by 5-10 cents per lbs. in the past week. Inventories of current crop SSR/STD material is extremely limited and there is better availability of larger size NPX/NPS at this time. Buyers and sellers have started participating in new crop sales with these newer price levels to spread some risks and organise some contracts on the books.

The shipments for July should be strong/solid as most packers are cleaning out their inventories and buyers are attempting to lock in shipments for the transition period with the expected later harvest.

date:  Jul 12, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Almonds June Shipment Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Worrying times for Californian Raisins

Domestic sales in America have dropped by 35 % last month (31% down overall).  If sales continue to drop it is likely that we will see some kind of price correction in January/February. This is likely to be welcome news to exports markets. However this may be too late for processors to adjust grower contracts and in turn it may be a case that they will be forced into high priced grower contracts at very high prices and the results may be continued market share losses in all markets.

Right now we are looking at about 70,000 ton carryout on July 31. Not all of this tonnage is marketable. It can be estimated that about 30% is not marketable. Therefore, there should be about 50,000 tons that is good fruit. Almost 40% of this fruit belongs to Sun-Maid so the balance of around 30,000 tons will be split between the other 12 or so processors.  Everyone is going to be running on fumes by the end of July and going forward will only be worse until the new crop is delivered and in the hands of the processors.

Prices will remain high until California on the whole realises the higher prices are causing huge losses in market share.

Field prices are being reported near $2400-$2600 per short ton for new crop. This would put the selling prices near $1.70-$1.80.  This could be another disastrous year for 2018 in the California Raisin Industry.

The forecast for the 2018 crop will be near 240,000 tons. Given the carryout at 70,000 tons, the total availability will be 310,000 tons. This is still 30,000 tons less than last year.

date:  Jul 12, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Worrying times for Californian Raisins
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Malatya Apricot Update June 2018

2017 Crop

  • Exports in June were 3,967 tons, compared to 4,981 tons last year
  • Exports year to date are 91,386 tons compared to 82,822 tons last year
  • Average export price for whole apricots for June was $3096/ton FOB compared to $3220/ton last year.

Exports are tapering off as remaining quantity of clean apricots comes to an end. Only small fruit and blemished fruit remains. Expectation for the final exported tonnage to be 96,000 tons with 10,000 tons domestic consumption and a carryover of small and industrial fruit of 10,000 to 15,000 tons only.

 2018 Crop

Harvest is in full swing. The weather dried up just in time, and current and forecast weather is perfect for drying. Roughly half the crop is blemished with hail and speckling due to the stormy weather during May and June.

Prices offered by juice companies for blemished fruit are once again very low, and some of the worst quality is not being harvested. There will again be a higher proportion of the crop un sulphured as blemishes are less visible on natural apricots, therefore a lower percentage of sulphured apricots available.

Prices for unblemished fresh fruit have been trading at almost double last years prices, at  a healthy Tl 2 to Tl 3 per Kg depending on size and quality.

Of the 100,000 to 110,000 tons dry equivalent that we think will be harvested, 30% will be natural, and of the remaining 70% there will be 50,000 to 60,000 tons of clean fruit.

We see a similar scenario as last year developing where clean fruit becomes increasingly harder to find as the season progresses, and prices rise as a result, with lower quality and industrial prices lagging behind. Natural apricots are likely to continue to trade at a discount to sulphured. Prices have opened higher than last years opening but lower than the mid season prices, we think the market is well priced at this level, and buyers of quality fruit are advised to book early.

A few small lots of new crop have come to market this week, and have seen strong demand at the same prices as old crop finished off, in the region of $3300 for size 4.

The government continues to develop its price support scheme where apricots may be delivered by growers to a central depot against an official receipt that they will be able to borrow against, meaning growers are not forced to sell to raise cash at times they believe prices are low.  The warehouse is expected to be ready towards the end of the calendar year. Similar schemes in the distant past have not been a great success, but in the short term they may further reduce the amount of apricots in the market.

The Lira

The elections are passed, and the ruling party has consolidated it position. The currency was initially buoyed by the results but gains have reversed this week as the international markets are unhappy with the choice of ministers just announced. Rating agencies are expected to react negatively, keeping pressure on the Lira. It is currently trading at 4.81 to the $.

date:  Jul 12, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Malatya Apricot Update June 2018
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Market Update on Banana Chips from the Philippines

Green banana deliveries has been less than half of the volume some packers have expected, the availability of bananas, have again, started to become short. The reasons behind the shortage is because of heavy rainfall in the farm areas and many farmers have held out harvesting their bananas to prevent prices from falling further. Green banana prices may have already found the bottom levels. 

We can empathise with the farmers since they live mostly hand to mouth on a daily basis to feed their families. It is good business practice that there should be a reason and / or motivation  for the farmers to go on with their banana cultivation, and not to cut down their planted bananas in favour of other fruits or crops due to falling banana prices.

Volatilities can spark  “any day between now to August / September time”  which is a nearby now.

Please note that those (Sept up to early 2019)  are usually China peak season months leading to Chinese New Year (early 2019)  wherein China purchases in full force. This  is the traditional yearly peak season sales.

Additionally,  the typhoon season months for the Philippines are July to September.  These are big risks for volatility since one typhoon can game change the farm situation,  as we have seen before in banana chip prices. It can be an impetus for the fresh fruit traders from Luzon to come back aggressively to buy bananas in the farms if their own crops in Luzon are devastated again by typhoons.

It would be a good time for you to lock in now,  for August / September orders,  while prices remain competative.

date:  Jul 09, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Market Update on Banana Chips from the Philippines
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

2018 Californian Almond Objective Estimate

The 2018 californian almond objective estimate of 2.45 billion lbs is an increase on this years earlier subjective report in May, with a +6.5% boost, its also a 7.9% step-up on 2017 crop.

Production from non pareil variety is forcaste at 910 million lbs, the lowest since 2005 down 0.8% and 21% below the 20 year average. the Nonpareil variety represents 37% of Californias total almond production. This all demonstrates the inpact of February’s frosty weather on what could have been a larger crop.

2.45 is good news and will allow the industry to continue  growing demand for Almonds, although many traders in Europe have been working on these estimations for some time.

 

date:  Jul 06, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on 2018 Californian Almond Objective Estimate
by:  Tom Ames category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Hazelnut Market update

The market generally remains unchanged in Turkey, however after the recent elections and and reelection of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan  the Lira recovered about 3%, which was less than the expectation. Prices in €/$ increased accordingly.

Weather conditions have been near perfect up until now and the crop is developing extremely well.

Exporters Union specialists are in the fields for the crop estimate which should be known within the next fortnight.

It’s already it’s reported that there are no special risks of cimiciato (hazelnut bug damage) nor mildew. The nuts seem to be of a larger size (less premium for 13/15 but less discount for small nuts can be expected).

We can be assured there will be plenty of availability of hazelnuts for the new crop.

The market drivers will be exchange rates, on one side the Lira, can it recover now the financial markets have less reason to fear political uncertainty and on the other side the politics of TMO; this will depend on the market price and social atmosphere at the time growers begin to market there new crop material; end August/September.

date:  Jul 04, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Hazelnut Market update
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Snapshot update on Seeds

Pumpkin – Forecast to have significantly lower planting figures this crop due to low prices and weak market. Farmers likely to move into better cash crops such as Soya and Corn, particularly as they think the trade war with the US could see bean and corn prices rise.

Millet – Too early to tell what the plantings are going to be. A better picture will  emerge in a couple of weeks.

Sunflower  – Less acreage being planted, buoyant oilseed market, poor crop in Argentina, very dry conditions in Eastern Europe and the strong Dollar v Euros is all combining to put a bullish twist

Poppy – Lack of rain plus a bout of root weevil which attacks young plants early has pushed the market up €50/pmt since last week

Linseeds – YOY plantings will be very similar, although there will be no carry-over we expect the market to be similar.

Sesame – The market in India is very strong at the moment due to lack of raw material, and a large demand from both Korea and China.

date:  Jul 03, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Snapshot update on Seeds
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Pecan Nuts Market report

The Pecan crop estimate for the 2018 / 2019 season was released at the Tri-state growers conference last week at 300 million lbs which would mean a fairly sizeable crop in the US.

It is also expected that the Mexican crop will be large too. Whilst there is no official number, it is widely expected to be over 250 million lbs. Despite the promisingg numbers, it is important to note that it remains very early in the growing season. These numbers should give us a fair indication, taking into account the additional acreage, that has been planted over the last 10 years.

Most shippers are almost sold out and have very limited volume left to offer. Small volumes may be found however it is recommended that any short positions are covered as soon as possible to guarantee supply. Due to the South African crop size and availability, we have seen a very slight softening of prices within June.

With 3 months remaining before the beginning of the new crop North American harvest, there are numerous scenarios that can play out during this period, however if all goes well we can expect the new crop pricing level to be below the levels we have seen for this season.

date:  Jun 29, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Pecan Nuts Market report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

May 2018 Almond Position Report

The Almond Board of California has released the MAY ALMOND POSITION REPORT with shipments of  +158 million pounds compared to 170 million pounds last year for a decrease of 7.3 percent.

  • DOMESTIC          +66 million lbs   +13.1%
  • EXPORT               +92 million lbs   -17.9%

Shipments for the month of May were down approximately 7.3 percent versus last May, and year-to-date shipments were up double digits 10.24 percent.  Uncommitted inventory is about 19 million pounds or 5.4 percent more over last year. Some major export markets such as Germany, Spain, Netherlands, UK, UAE, Turkey, and China saw decreases in May shipments from 2017 to 2018.  New sales for the month of May reflected the market’s activity in general with new sales of only 76 million pounds.  This is a decrease of 47.38 percent versus last year.  New crop sales saw a decrease as well with sales totaling just over 80 million pounds versus 209 million pounds last year.

New sales in May were only 76.1 million pounds compared to last year at 144 million pounds.  The recent increase in Trade/Tariff wars with the USA have made many buyers around the world cautious on making new contracts for current and new crop.

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:  Are now at +1.950 billion pounds compared to 1.769 billion pounds for an increase of +10.24 percent.

CROP RECEIPTS:  The 2017 crop receipts are at +2.257 billion pounds compared to 2.134 billion pounds in 2016, and increase of +5.79% over last year.

OBJECTIVE CROP ESTIMATE: Will be announced in early July.  The Subjective Crop estimate is now at 2.3 billion pounds. Many growers/packers expect the Objective to be between 2.3 to 2.4 billion pounds.  Monterey and Independence Varieties look outstanding with a big crop of them coming.  The Nonpareil crop is averaging quantity looking on the trees.

NEW CROP SALES: Over 80 million pounds of new crop almond shave been sold by May 31 accounting for approximately 3.5% of the new crop has now been sold.

JUNE SHIPMENTS: We expect June shipments to be down approximately 5-10% as many packers are running low on many key items limiting what they may sell for current crop.

Market at a glance: Hesitance and unknowns filled the market the past 30 days resulting in subdued activity.  Prices on current crop, maintained levels above $3.00 per pound for sized California and Carmel Types while Nonpareil varied between sellers ranging between $3.35-$3.50 per pound.  Most recently new crop started to take shape with some consistent pricing, but buyers hesitated in large part to confirm new crop business due to pricing versus last year and the unknown political situations throughout the world and how that could impact their local trade.

This month’s shipment report is reflective of the market unknowns and lack of confidence for what the future holds in world trade. The fundamentals of the 2017 crop aren’t daunting by any means.  The projected carryout could be somewhere close to last year’s carry out figure, which as a percentage is a smaller percentage of total supply, and the total percent sold is right in line with last year (87% vs. 86%) at this time.  The sentiment of the market however is what might have more of an impact on how the market moves forward versus fundamentals of the market.  Cautious buyers will be even more cautious on purchasing opportunities as they arise, and buyers could wait until they sense the market has reached a fair equilibrium point with supply and demand before doing the next round of purchases.

Notable upcoming reports:            July 5th Objective Estimate            July 12th June Position Report

date:  Jun 12, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on May 2018 Almond Position Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

May 2018 – Walnut crop report and update

The May 2018  shipments versus the May 2017  shipments on an inshell equivalent were up approximately 4% for May.    41,354 tons versus 39,504 last year.     

The FINAL receipts reported on Dec. 31st, 2017  for the Walnut crop are at 627,798 tons.

Pricing/Market:    The California Walnut packers are coming ending the season where they are completely finished or only have a few loads left to offer.

Demand has been slow for current crop currently, and new crop has started in many markets.

New Crop:    Industry experts believe that this year’s new crop may not be as large as once expected.  Some Industry Experts are now predicting the crop to be 660,000 to 700,000 lbs.  They believe this may be an “OFF” year for the trees and they are not producing as heavy as once thought.

Both the Tulare and The Serr crop look to be up over last year. Unfortunately the industry experts are not as optimistic on the Howard’s and the Chandlers, as Howards are down after two good crops and Chandlers look average at best.  The bloom on the Chandlers was completed in 3 weeks and the sizes look to be uniform across all 3 sizes ( 30% Jumbo, 30% Large, 40% Small and Babies ).

Right now it is very early and mindsets could change as we get closer to harvest.  We will definitely keep you updated.

India: Has increased custom duties on both walnuts from 30%  to 100% from all origins.

Turkey:  Unofficially, the duty for CA almonds and walnuts  has increased from 15% to 20%.  They have also removed some import licenses which has sent some local importers scrambling.

China:  China looks to have a big crop, so will also buy less in 2018.  They are predicting a crop of 750,000 to 800,00 tons.

Chile: Chile continues to have interest in moving both inshell and kernels since they are undersold from the previous years.  With a crop up over 30% from last year, the Chilean packers that are looking to move  +30 and +32MM Chandler Inshell.  The bigger sizes of Chandler, +34MM, and +36MM look to be well sold as there were less of them than last year.

date:  Jun 08, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on May 2018 – Walnut crop report and update
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More
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