News

Californian Walnut Crop growers & packers estimate

On Monday 23rd of July 2018 Californian Walnut growers and packers estimated the new crop to be 691.000 short tons for the 2018  Walnut new crop.

This is lower than last years estimation of 699.000 short tons. But higher than last years production of about 630.000 short tons. Last year’s crop size was 627,000 tons.  This estimate comes in approx. 10% higher than last year’s total.

The way the estimation works is that everybody who participates makes an estimation of their production for new crop.
Of all these estimations, an average is taken. And based upon that average the crop size is estimated.
At the moment California is experiencing a heat wave. It is expected to last about 1,5 week. And it might effect the crop to some extend.
There have been some hot days earlier this season, but not with this intensity and for many consecutive days.

  • The Tulare Crop is expected to be much larger in quantity than last year.
  • The Chandler Crop will be larger in quantity, but similar in yield per acre to last year.
  • This year’s crop is coming from a larger acreage base compared to last year

The official 2018 Walnut Crop Estimate will be released in Early September.

In general the world has a plentiful supply of walnuts and we expect a season of stabilised competitive pricing to continue to grow volumes.

date:  Jul 25, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Californian Walnut Crop growers & packers estimate
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Hazelnuts update

We remain in the transition period between 2017 crop and soon to be available 2018 crop. Trade is thin as most shippers prefer to wait till 2018 crop is physically available before setting prices. 2017 crop is still available at 20.5 TL a price which hasn’t changed for the last three months.

New crop should start to appear from the lower farms about mid-August, then we will start to get a better idea as to size of the crop, quality and price farmers are prepared to sell at. With the harvest taking place over several weeks and dependent on weather conditions, these insights to the new crop will not be instant but will become apparent over time. We expect the crop to be about 650,000 mt (min 600 max 700,000 mt), the last Exporters Union figure was constant at 634,000 mt in shell.

Should we have no surprises with the crop the big unknowns will remain TMO policy and the Turkish lira.

The TMO probably won’t announce their intentions until they know more about the crop. How much they intend to buy and at what price will depend on the opening of the private market. Some speculators offer new crop on the basis of 24 – 24.5 TL

We can only work with what we know and that is 2017 crop at 20.5 TL.

Report received from our partner supply in Turkey.

 

date:  Jul 24, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Hazelnuts update
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Sultanas Market update July 2018

The Turkish Sultana market has shown some weakness in the last week due to some traders offering material across the market to packers, given activity and availability has been negligible in the last few weeks this unexpected move has led to raw material prices falling slightly. The export price has held somewhat firm due to the Lira v US Dollar rate fluctuating on a daily/hourly basis which of course makes packers nervous about having offers open for prolonged periods.

New crop development is progressing very well and harvest is still expected to begin between 10 to 14 days earlier than last year. Reports about the size of new crop from Turkey varies across packers & traders ranging from 270,000 tonnes up to 320,000 tonnes. The official crop estimate is due at some point during August, it came out mid-end August last year, and this will undoubtedly shape where prices will go. Demand for new crop shipments is expected to be as high as traditionally experienced and does usually force prices to increase initially after harvest. Once this demand has subsided everything we’re seeing at the moment would suggest prices have the capability to subsided end 2018, subject to currency in Turkey & here in the UK.

date:  Jul 20, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Sultanas Market update July 2018
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Californian Raisins – June shipments

JUNE SHIPMENTS

UK shipments of Californian Raisins for June 2018 are down 86% against June 2017. Only 115mt were shipped in the month of June against 825mt from the previous year!

The Raisin Administrative Commitee June 2018 shipment report of Natural (sun-dried) Seedless (NS) Raisins shows that domestic shipments (including Canada) were 10,806 packed tons, compared to 17,715 tons in 2017 (-39%). Year-to-date domestic shipments are 152,937 packed tons compared to 180,214 tons at this time in 2017 (-15%).

NS export shipments (without Canada) for June 2018 were 5,440 packed tons, compared to 9,008 tons in 2017 (-40%). YTD export shipments are 82,881 packed tons, compared to 100,087 tons a year ago, a decrease of -17%.

NS shipments to all destinations year-to-date are 235,808 packed tons, compared to 280,302 packed tons for last year (-16%).

Top 20 Destinations for June

Natural Seedless

Packed Tons

June Rank Destination Tonnage Previous Rank YTD Tonnage

8/01/17-6/30/18

1 United States 10,240 1 145,032
2 Japan 2,097 2 30,013
3 Canada 565 8 7,895
4 Philippines 505 6 3,786
5 China* 438 3 6,360
6 Germany 312 4 5,693
7 Malaysia 242 13 1,613
8 Norway 189 10 2,103
9 Taiwan 185 5 3,715
10 Sweden 167 7 2,979
11 Finland 139 (-) 1,045
12 South Korea 139 9 3,273
13 United Kingdom 115 17 5,382
14 Thailand 104 15 2,069
15 Indonesia 96 12 1,159
16 Mexico 95 19 1,137
17 Dominican Republic 85 (-) 973
18 Colombia 66 18 602
19 Hong Kong 64 14 1,190
20 Singapore 61 (-) 1,084

 

date:  Jul 17, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Californian Raisins – June shipments
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Cashew Nuts

Chelmer Foods is now importing and supplying Cashew Nuts

The cashew market has been taking an upwards turn now after it recently hit bottom, many factories have gone under as there is no liquidity available in the market, good kernel quality is still very difficult to come by.

Shippers have now come back to renegotiate pricing on raw seed that has been left sitting at the port.

Buyers are urged to proceed with caution when approaching small – midsize shippers as quality can drastically vary.

We are expecting to see this market move higher as negotiations continue on raw seed and each day shippers have been withdrawing offers for higher levels.

The US market has started their purchasing for 4th quarter and will continue in the coming weeks.

Please let us know if you have any demand you are seeking.

date:  Jul 13, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Cashew Nuts
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Almonds June Shipment Report

The Almonds Board of California has released the June Almond Position Report with shipments of +156.7 million pounds compared to last year’s 177 million pounds for a decrease of -11.5 percent.  This report has been expected to be slightly lower, as last year we had extremely large shipments and this year our inventory is lacking and limited at this time due to our strong shipments throughout this past season.

  • Domestic             62.28 million lbs               -4.6%
  • Export                  94.49 million lbs               -15.4%
  • New sales in June were 104,350,755 lbs
  • Crop plus carry in is now 92.6% sold

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:  Are now + 2.107 billion pounds compared to last years’ 1.946  billion pounds for a whopping increase of  +8.26  percent!

Crop receipts are holding steady at 2.259 billion pounds for the 2017 crop.

The 2018 Crop estimate is now at 2.45 billion pounds, up from the subjective crop estimate in May of 2.30 billion pounds.  Harvest appears to be 5-7 days later than recent years by some growers estimations.

With the higher crop estimate, we have seen all prices weaken by 5-10 cents per lbs. in the past week. Inventories of current crop SSR/STD material is extremely limited and there is better availability of larger size NPX/NPS at this time. Buyers and sellers have started participating in new crop sales with these newer price levels to spread some risks and organise some contracts on the books.

The shipments for July should be strong/solid as most packers are cleaning out their inventories and buyers are attempting to lock in shipments for the transition period with the expected later harvest.

date:  Jul 12, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Almonds June Shipment Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Worrying times for Californian Raisins

Domestic sales in America have dropped by 35 % last month (31% down overall).  If sales continue to drop it is likely that we will see some kind of price correction in January/February. This is likely to be welcome news to exports markets. However this may be too late for processors to adjust grower contracts and in turn it may be a case that they will be forced into high priced grower contracts at very high prices and the results may be continued market share losses in all markets.

Right now we are looking at about 70,000 ton carryout on July 31. Not all of this tonnage is marketable. It can be estimated that about 30% is not marketable. Therefore, there should be about 50,000 tons that is good fruit. Almost 40% of this fruit belongs to Sun-Maid so the balance of around 30,000 tons will be split between the other 12 or so processors.  Everyone is going to be running on fumes by the end of July and going forward will only be worse until the new crop is delivered and in the hands of the processors.

Prices will remain high until California on the whole realises the higher prices are causing huge losses in market share.

Field prices are being reported near $2400-$2600 per short ton for new crop. This would put the selling prices near $1.70-$1.80.  This could be another disastrous year for 2018 in the California Raisin Industry.

The forecast for the 2018 crop will be near 240,000 tons. Given the carryout at 70,000 tons, the total availability will be 310,000 tons. This is still 30,000 tons less than last year.

date:  Jul 12, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Worrying times for Californian Raisins
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Malatya Apricot Update June 2018

2017 Crop

  • Exports in June were 3,967 tons, compared to 4,981 tons last year
  • Exports year to date are 91,386 tons compared to 82,822 tons last year
  • Average export price for whole apricots for June was $3096/ton FOB compared to $3220/ton last year.

Exports are tapering off as remaining quantity of clean apricots comes to an end. Only small fruit and blemished fruit remains. Expectation for the final exported tonnage to be 96,000 tons with 10,000 tons domestic consumption and a carryover of small and industrial fruit of 10,000 to 15,000 tons only.

 2018 Crop

Harvest is in full swing. The weather dried up just in time, and current and forecast weather is perfect for drying. Roughly half the crop is blemished with hail and speckling due to the stormy weather during May and June.

Prices offered by juice companies for blemished fruit are once again very low, and some of the worst quality is not being harvested. There will again be a higher proportion of the crop un sulphured as blemishes are less visible on natural apricots, therefore a lower percentage of sulphured apricots available.

Prices for unblemished fresh fruit have been trading at almost double last years prices, at  a healthy Tl 2 to Tl 3 per Kg depending on size and quality.

Of the 100,000 to 110,000 tons dry equivalent that we think will be harvested, 30% will be natural, and of the remaining 70% there will be 50,000 to 60,000 tons of clean fruit.

We see a similar scenario as last year developing where clean fruit becomes increasingly harder to find as the season progresses, and prices rise as a result, with lower quality and industrial prices lagging behind. Natural apricots are likely to continue to trade at a discount to sulphured. Prices have opened higher than last years opening but lower than the mid season prices, we think the market is well priced at this level, and buyers of quality fruit are advised to book early.

A few small lots of new crop have come to market this week, and have seen strong demand at the same prices as old crop finished off, in the region of $3300 for size 4.

The government continues to develop its price support scheme where apricots may be delivered by growers to a central depot against an official receipt that they will be able to borrow against, meaning growers are not forced to sell to raise cash at times they believe prices are low.  The warehouse is expected to be ready towards the end of the calendar year. Similar schemes in the distant past have not been a great success, but in the short term they may further reduce the amount of apricots in the market.

The Lira

The elections are passed, and the ruling party has consolidated it position. The currency was initially buoyed by the results but gains have reversed this week as the international markets are unhappy with the choice of ministers just announced. Rating agencies are expected to react negatively, keeping pressure on the Lira. It is currently trading at 4.81 to the $.

date:  Jul 12, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Malatya Apricot Update June 2018
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Market Update on Banana Chips from the Philippines

Green banana deliveries has been less than half of the volume some packers have expected, the availability of bananas, have again, started to become short. The reasons behind the shortage is because of heavy rainfall in the farm areas and many farmers have held out harvesting their bananas to prevent prices from falling further. Green banana prices may have already found the bottom levels. 

We can empathise with the farmers since they live mostly hand to mouth on a daily basis to feed their families. It is good business practice that there should be a reason and / or motivation  for the farmers to go on with their banana cultivation, and not to cut down their planted bananas in favour of other fruits or crops due to falling banana prices.

Volatilities can spark  “any day between now to August / September time”  which is a nearby now.

Please note that those (Sept up to early 2019)  are usually China peak season months leading to Chinese New Year (early 2019)  wherein China purchases in full force. This  is the traditional yearly peak season sales.

Additionally,  the typhoon season months for the Philippines are July to September.  These are big risks for volatility since one typhoon can game change the farm situation,  as we have seen before in banana chip prices. It can be an impetus for the fresh fruit traders from Luzon to come back aggressively to buy bananas in the farms if their own crops in Luzon are devastated again by typhoons.

It would be a good time for you to lock in now,  for August / September orders,  while prices remain competative.

date:  Jul 09, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Market Update on Banana Chips from the Philippines
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More