Click Here >> Doraintrade August Sultanas Report 2015 << PDF report from Doraintrade with news on latest information from Turkish Vine Fruit Crop
The committee of the official survey group exporters union as announced their report as 2015 crop Turkish Dry Raisins / Sultanas is estimated at 196.000 mt.
This is pure estimation , but last year they estimate 328.000 mt. And now, we already reached to 322.000 mt.
So, it is nearly %100 accuracy. So, I believe them. New crop, will be %40 less than last year.
Presume nearly 25-35.000 mt carry over will be available.
But these stocks are in the hands of “hard sellers” which they don’t want to sell but wait.
On the following days before the harvest they will make one last tour around the region to see the final situation at the vineyards before the harvest.
Please keep in mind that, due to the fact that there is no homogeneity in the vineyards it is very difficult to make an accurate estimation this year.
Big variances are observed within the vineyards of the same region. Within the different rows in the same vineyards and even within the same rows different trees are showing big variances.
2 days ago, there was a heavy Summer rain at vine- yards. Also weather forecast expect rain this weekend. Hopefully these rains will not damage the fruit on bunches.
Harvest, did not started yet. We expect in 10 days, it will start. This means, crop is .. this year about 1 week late.
Everyone waiting new crop arrivals.
Presume , opening price can be around 2.300- 2.400.- US Doll Fob Pmt. But we will wait and see afterwards.Due to a difficult year, at 22-23 August 2015 a small survey group will go to fields once more second time for to make double –check of this announced crop size. It will be more accured to have this figures at 24 August 2015.
We will follow the situation very closely and update you about the last developments.
The rain seasons in Thailand delay by two months this year. Many plantation area are suffered from drought for this last two and half months, only ten days ago. Water shortage was so severe that even Bangkok have to reduce water supply and farming will be secondary priority. Therefore, there was no water for agriculture area for sometimes already. This have been affect on various crops.
Good news is nowadays, the raining season seem to start, but the figure of water reserve in many dams in Thailand are still in low level. We still have to wait and monitor on situation this year.
Re:- Market update # 03/2015
:- Pineapple, currently we can hardly find any raw material available for production especially item that need fresh raw material ie. Pineapple no cane sugar added, Pineapple with pineapple juice premium quality.
We expect season of pineapple will be delayed by one month. During October, we shall have good picture on crop size and quality of pineapple for year 2016. Due to pineapple plantation area do not have adequate water previously. This may cause damage and reduce crop size. We will update this information during October.
:- Pineapple core, as pineapple core will have the same effect as pineapple product. Therefore, availability and price will have similar affect with pineapple situation.
However, due to pineapple core raw material pricing is at high level for year 2015, we anticipate core price may not increase further as market may not accept.
:- White Papaya, for added color. Crop delay by one month with small quantity of raw material available. We are currently see much high price indication from supplier. New season should start in August but today offer price in market remain much higher price than last year.
However, we have good inventory for this item, therefore, we will have more time to wait to get best pricing of raw material.
:- Papaya natural red, currently raw material is not available due to drought. The season will be in October. This year will be a difficult year to anticipate pricing and availability.
Last year papaya crop size was small. However, raw material price remain soft due mainly to canneries (cocktail fruits) use less papaya in their mix.
This year, if cocktail fruits request papaya in their product, availability and price may have affect! Also farmer may not happy with pricing last year as crop size smaller but still could not making money!
:- Ginger, new season is about to start. Of course, due to delay of raining season, crop also delay by one month. By late August, raw material should become available, we were told that quality should be good, soft and young ginger. The price should also be good if other market are not interfere same as last year.
More information will be provide during September for ginger crop for yearly price 2015.
For mango no cane sugar added, Mango juice and Premium mango, these products will be available during November. As it is only a short period. Please consider to make enquiry before crop start.
For standard mango product, we expect stable price, stable quantity and we see no shortage of mango to March 2016. New mango crop will be April-June 2016.
:- Cantaloupe, currently is off season. However, raw material in our inventory will cover till new season arrive. Expect stable price.
:- Coconut, price stable, no problem with quality of raw material. However, during October will be shortage period for coconut. Therefore, to build up inventory to cover usage during October is recommended.
:- Guava, season will be in late August – September. Product is three months interval. We expect stable price also as demand is not large.
:- Starfruit, three months interval crop. We have more better control on raw material quality together with storage. Therefore, consistent quality and stable price for the whole year 2015.
:- Dragon fruit, small raw material available with very high price this year due to damage from drought. Even the rain just start but it may be too late as season is near finish. Please check availability and price before confirm order.
:- Hibicus, season will be in November. Currently, we no longer have raw material available. New crop will be in late November-December.
:- Strawberry, season is finished. We manage to reserve raw material for this season per last year demand. We are checking with quality. Sample of new crop should be able to forward in next two weeks. Price is little softer than last year. The size that we received are majority in medium to small size.
:- Peach, we book raw material base on last year demand. Stable price. First raw material shipment should arrive our factory by end August.
:- Kiwi, new crop will be in late August/September. Will advise new crop situation in September / October. Please advise demand in order us to reserve raw material.
:- Apple and Pear: New crop will be in late September / October. Please advise demand in order us to reserve raw material.
Note:- Chinwong Food and Unity Food will exhibit at ANUGA Fair this year. Our booth is located at Hall 11.3 Stand H-038
Market: Total supply situation as below:
|2014 crop estimate||20,000mt|
|Less packer retention (say average 12%)||2,400mt|
|Plus 2013 crop carry over||6,000mt|
|Estimated Total supply @ 1.9.14||23,600mt|
|Less anticipated export demand 1.9.14 to 31.8.15||17,000mt|
|Predicted carry over @ 31.8.15||6,600mt|
Unlike other origins, there is no official crop estimate for Greek Currants. Our own estimate of the new crop total, is 21,000mt (less 12% retention) = 18,480mt + 6,600mt carry over = total supply at 1.9.15 of 25,080 mt. Harvest will commence within the next 2-3 weeks. Development has generally been acceptable, however, temperatures in recent days have risen above 40C, with the prospect of storms, over the next week.
With total demand of less than 18,000mt this would point to a surplus of around 7,000mt by 31.8.16. However, in view of the significantly lower price of Currants at this time, compared to Raisins & Sultanas, we are already seeing increased interest in Currants. It is likely, therefore, that for the first time in many years, exports of Greek Currants may increase. Subject to the scale of that increase, we may see a resultant rise in raw material prices. Growers are desperate to secure better prices for their raw material, with prices having halved, during the last two years.
The Greek Stock Exchange re-opened, yesterday, immediately falling by almost 25% and closing the day some 16% lower. Value of the main Greek Banks fell by 30%. This was not unexpected following the recent turmoil, however, Greek manufacturing output for July, was the lowest on record. Greece is expected to fall back into recession this year, with the economy predicted to contract by at least 2%.
The IMF has made quite clear their concern (and possible reluctance to participate in) a third bailout, without restructuring of total Greek debt. Although Prime Minister Tsipras managed to secure the backing of the Greek Parliament for the implementation of the measures required to secure the third bailout, it remains entirely possible that there may be another election, this year and the situation remains volatile.
On Tuesday, July 28th, the California Walnut Handlers Coalition held their annual meeting to establish a subjective estimate for the
2015 California Walnut crop. Based on their findings, the 2015 California Walnut crop is estimated to be 607,000 in‐shell short tons. The
handlers, who span across all major growing regions, achieved this estimate by averaging their individual appraisals.
SHIPMENT AND MARKETING REPORT
The California Walnut Board’s Monthly Shipment Report released on July 13th indicated that shipments continue to exceed last year’s
performance both for the month of June (31,235 in‐shell equivalent tonnage) and YTD for this marketing year (459,263 v. 476,787). The
increase is consistent with the larger 2014 crop, currently reported as handlers’ receipts of 562,512 tons.
This month kernel shipments to the US moved above last year’s levels. June MOM was up 42.43% (10,317,024 vs. 14,694,839) and
could be a reflection of lower priced Light Amber material typically sold in the domestic market. The 2014 crop yielded a higher than average
% of this material pool and will likely make up the majority of the carry‐in inventory to the 2016 marketing year. We are currently tracking the
carry‐in to be slightly higher than 85,000 tons and <10% of the estimated 2015 total supply.
Export shipments are typically slower during the warm summer months; however, all geographic regions reported an increase in June
(with the exception of South America). Even with reports of heavy stocks, Korean shipments increased (2.06% MOM). While currency
challenges continue, it has not halted the growth of sales. Importers will be watching closely to see where the market opens in September. If
market conditions are favourable, then we would anticipate a continued increase in demand that will be closely matched with overall supply.
As reflected in the crop estimate, the trees are heavy with nuts and reported to be of good size and quality. California ttemperatures
have been relatively mild this summer. Weather conditions in the Southern San Joaquin Valley have been favourable with record rain falls for
July (from monsoons and tropical storms) and only a handful of days above 100°F. We are hopeful to move through August without concerns
and look to begin harvesting in‐line with historical norms.
To date, reports of dry wells or orchards without adequate irrigation resources have been limited in number and geographically
Old crop is all but sold out .New crop is at the moment growing in North Western and North Eastern China and our main shippers are visiting the main growing areas in Xinjiang Province and Inner Mongolia.
Due to the historically high prices for pumpkin this year quite a few farmers have switched from Sunflower and Corn to Pumpkin , so overall acreage is up from last year but we must wait until end August /September to see how the yields and quality will be..
As previously mentioned the crops were late this year in being planted due to the wet Spring so a slightly later than normal crop is expected, first shipments of Shine Skin will be available early October and for GWS mid /second half October, so new crop material will arrive mid/end November in the UK.
Demand continues to increase for seeds worldwide and especially domestically in China for roasting at the New Year holiday so we do not see prices dropping drastically when the crop becomes available this Autumn.
We will have a more definite idea of the crop size etc end August /early September.
Bulgaria is getting ready to start the harvest in about 2/3 weeks which is a little earlier than normal due to the very warm Summer they are having.
Rumours of a drought and a very small crop appear to be unfounded as our two main shippers both believe the crop will be a good average size, maybe about 7 pct down from last year’s very large crop that saw prices tumble last Autumn.
Demand is strong for oil crushing and for kernel production so we don’t see prices dropping a lot once the crop comes off the fields and initially there will be a big demand for seeds as there is no old crop left at all.
Generally feel that prices are at good levels and the chance of any significant drop is minimal from current levels, maybe maximum 30/50 Euros pmt but no more.
China continues to be very competitive against USA origin and signs are that the new crop will be a good size crop as well so don’t see any major changes in the market for the foreseeable future.
Would suggest taking cover forward into 2016 at current levels
Prices in India for hulled sesame have come off a bit in the last few weeks due to various reasons
1) Good Monsoon
2)There is a lack of demand for August/September shipment due to the economic crisis in Greece- Greece had been a very large buyer from India previously.
4)The Ocean freights to Europe have come down and are at historically low levels.
With the above and the improved Stg/USD exchange rate prices look attractive at the moment. Suggest cover up to November 2015.
Main new crop is being planted now and will be harvested mid /end October for early November 2015 shipment.
Prices look very attractive at the moment for both brown and yellow. New crops are progressing well in Russia, Kazakhstan and Moldavia and the harvest will commence in about 4/6 weeks time.
Hulled Millet seeds
New crop is again progressing well in the USA, prices have moved up a little over the last couple of months due to increased demand but still remain competitive and we expect no real change in levels in the coming months.
Expect new crop to arrive in October in the UK.
Market is relatively stable and the new harvest is just starting in the coming weeks. We expect a similar overall crop size to last year despite higher plantings this year. There has been some unfavourable weather in the Czech Republic and Eastern Europe in the past months, basically it has been too dry and some of the increased acreages even had to be re sown. So we expect prices to remain approximately where they are as long as the crop comes of the fields OK in the coming few week.
Hoping the above overview is of some use and if any firm offers etc are required, please do not hesitate to contact us.
The market is floating quietly and we are right at the start of the new harvest. Until a couple of weeks ago we were expecting a somewhat higher harvest than last year but the latest reports now point at a similar output. Weather/growing conditions have not been very favourable and where for example the Czech Rep increased their plantings by about 15%, the harvest is expected to show a similar figure as last year.
Various European areas have not had enough rain and the Czech Rep. even had to re-sow some areas. The situation is absolutely not alarming but looking at all information and figures at hand, we expect a similar total world crop as last year but still 10% below the long year average.
We therefore adjusted our earlier views from somewhat bearish towards firm to possibly somewhat dearer. Much depends on the weather conditions of the next couple of weeks which we obviously monitor closely. Right now we have a rather neutral approach to prices and therefore offer/sell current and new crop at the same price.
It would surprise us if the market would be lower in a few months time since any change we might see we expect to be upwards(?).
We look forward to any enquiry you may have.
Today our shipper returned back from a field tour through the south Bulgarian growing areas. He has seen a lot of poor fields with low yield expectation due to very dry and hot weather. The Bulgarian officials have reduced their new crop estimation down to 1,3 Million tons comparing with 2 Million tons in 2014. The harvest will start soon during week 33 ( 10.08.-16.08.2015 ) in the south of Bulgaria. The harvest will be at least 2 – 3 weeks later in the North of Bulgaria and in the south of Romania. The raw material quality is been expected very good because of the hot and dry weather. Sunflower will be shelled easier when the product is dry. Framers return per hectare / acre will be less than 2014 because of the reduced yields. Therefore framers asking already a higher price for new crop raw material.
We expecting further increases and do not share the still floating opinion in the market that prices will come down in September 2015. Worldwide demand for sunflowers is too strong and the shortage for the old crop will push the new crop as well. Beside of the sunflower situation we also have lower rape seed and linseed crops. Therefore vegetable oil markets are also firmer.
In Nut shell the low crop expectation for sunflowers in the Black Sea – Area, the current shortage for old crop in combination with firmer vegetable oil markets will end up in a firmer market prospect.
INDIAN WALNUT CROP REPORT 2015
The 2015 Walnut crop is progressing very well. Initially at the blossom time, there was some concern due to excessive rains but luckily they were not accompanied by snow. The temperature remained steady and there was no report of frost bite from any growing area. As the crop progressed the weather Gods remained very benevolent with the steady periodic rains during the months of May, June and July. This season the maximum temperature didn’t cross 33degrees which has helped the Walnuts to grow in size also. Since there was no dry spell during the growing period, at the moment size of Walnuts seem to be very good. We are expecting very little of babies this year.
The month of August is very critical for Walnuts. One or two rains are required before harvest. Going by the trend of rains this year over the growing areas, we expect normal rains during this period also. This will result in healthier kernels with more meat. Since there has been no dry spell over the past months and temperatures have remained moderate we expect more of light kernels this year, supply of ambers is likely to be restricted this season. Overall we expect good crop both quality and quantity wise.
The domestic market is expanding with a handsome growth of 10% the domestic consumption has risen to 35 to 40% of the crop. The festive season this year is late by 15 days. Diwali being on 11th November as against on 26th October last year, therefore we do not see pressure of domestic buyers during this period as there is enough time with the suppliers to push their goods. Besides there are some unsold stocks of inshell walnuts from old crop. This carryover of about 10-15% will also result in easing of domestic prices. There has been a growing trend of importing of Californian walnuts which cater to domestic market for inshell walnuts.
Overall we feel it will be a good season with domestic prices in check. Hopefully, there will be possibility of reviving our exports.