News

Market update on Greek Currants and potential impact on Euro zone crisis…

Market: Total supply situation as below:

 

2014 crop estimate 20,000mt
Less packer retention (say average 12%)   2,400mt
17,600mt
Plus 2013 crop carry over   6,000mt
Estimated Total supply @ 1.9.14 23,600mt
Less anticipated export demand 1.9.14 to 31.8.15 17,000mt
Predicted carry over @ 31.8.15   6,600mt

 

Estimated new crop total of 22,000mt (less 12% retention) = 19,360mt + 6,600mt carry over, would give an estimated  total supply at 1.9.15 of 25,960 mt.  With total demand of less than 18,000mt this would point to s surplus of around 8,000mt by 31.8.16.  HOWEVER, we anticipate that demand for Greek Currants next season, will increase significantly compared to this season, due to the fact that their price is now very attractive, compared to Sultanas & Raisins. It is quite possible that subject to the scale of any increase in demand, the market will once again start to rise, as the season progresses. This may be tempered to some degree, by the desire of growers to sell their product early, however, the raw materail price is presently HALF of the amount it was, just two years ago, supporting the view that any indication of an increase in demand, could trigger an immediate increase in prices, whilst still remaining competitive in the golbal Vine Fruits market.

 

The Greek Economy remains in a critical state, with debts of over EURO 10 Billion due to be paid to the IMF, ECB and EU Member states, over the next two months and emergency bank funding presently only being maintained, rather than increased.currants

Prime Minister Tsipras insists that Greece is being held to ransom by its creditors and points to his mandate to resist any further austerity measures. The latest proposals for continued funding of Greece by the EU, require additional austerity measures to be taken. The Syriza Government has said that the EU proposal is unacceptable and have called a Referendum to determine the view of the Greek Electorate, in that regard. This is seen by many commentators, as trying to force the hand of the EU. The referendum scheduled for Sunday 5.7.15. If the result is against the latest EU proposal, then this may cause the EU to re-consider its position, as it would result in default, should there be no further concessions from Greece’s creditors. Default would trigger an exit of Greece, from the Euro-zone.  A vote by the Greek Electorate in favour of the existing EU proposal would likely represent an untenable position for the Syriza Government  – almost certainly meaning another Greek General Election.

Banks in Greece are presently closed to prevent further withdrawal of capital.

Should Greece exit the Euro-zone and revert to their own Currency, the damage to not only the economies of Euro-zone members but also Worldwide, would be significant. Resistance by Greece, may also strengthen the will of Spain, Portugal and Italy, to react in the same way. Fear of this, would appear to be at the heart of the Greek Governments approach, in that they realise that its creditors are acutely aware of it.  Indeed, we understand that some concessions have been offered to Greece, by the EU Commission , this morning (debt relief and assistance for the poor) on the basis that the Greek Government accepts the majority of the proposal, made by the EU, last week and abandons any plans for the proposed referendum at the weekend. This is presently under consideration.

date:  Jun 30, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Market update on Greek Currants and potential impact on Euro zone crisis…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Latest market report on Turkish Apricots received from our partners BER Gida

As expected, maturation of Apricots delayed in Malatya . Although it is end of June we recently started to see Fresh Apricots in the market from the North East .

We have argued in our previous reports; we expect main Dried Apricot delivery to the market in  Augustapricots3

Malatya is never an important fresh apricots supplier but fresh apricots prices can be used as a good indicator for dried apricots prices. This season growers are extremely reluctant to sell their products fresh unless it goes at very high prices. It looks that they are quite sure that Dried prices will make them happy. Due to the high price expectations it is very likely that growers will do their best to keep their produce as long as possible. Increasing markets is a common belief among the growers and this may create a remarkable shortage during entire season .

We must take into account that, Government will subsidize the farmers due to their crop losses. By the help this support growers will have sufficient cash to keep their stock longer. It will not be easy to convince them to sell their apricots.

At the moment, fruit is clearly visible on the trees and we can surely say that in  Crop 2015 season  we will have mostly Size # 3 and bigger sizes . It will be very difficult to find small sizes .

We estimate that good quality small sizes will go at a premium and this will effect prices of all sizes. When growers see that small sizes are being sold at certain prices, they will ask higher prices for their big sizes as well.

Small size and big size price difference will not be so big but we believe  all sizes will be pricey.

Due to the rains and hail in the last two months, major growing areas are heavily damaged. SpecBER Gida Logokled and hail damaged berries will be much more than previous seasons.

Price difference between good quality and bad quality will be big, bigger than usual.

date:  Jun 29, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Latest market report on Turkish Apricots received from our partners BER Gida
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

CALIFORNIA NATURAL SEEDLESS RAISINS – Report received from National Raisin Company

CALIFORNIA NATURAL SEEDLESS RAISINS

Report received from National Raisin Company, USA019

Total industry 2014 crop year shipments for 10 months (August 1, 2014 through May 31, 2015) were down 11% compared to the same period a year ago, but relatively flat compared to the average shipments of the two previous crop years.

  • Shipments to Western Europe were down more, 39% overall; though down only 12% compared to the average shipments of the two previous crop years.

*  For the current crop year, California shipments were down due to the bumper crop and cheap prices from Turkey, as well as the weak Euro.

*   The opposite was true for the 2013 crop year.

  • Shipments to Japan were up 17% despite the weak Yen, due to raisins being used in the burgeoning granola and nutrition bar business there.

Cal Raisins Graph 25.6.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The California raisin grape crop is developing well.

  • While surface water deliveries have been significantly curtailed, nearly all growers have good access to groundwater.
  • However, growing costs have increased.

*   Digging more and deeper wells

*   Cost to pump and maintain the wells

  • At this point we can anticipate a total supply for the 2015 crop year of around 416,000 short tons vs. 443,000 for 2014. This includes a crop of 300,000 tons for 2015 vs. 305,000 for 2014.
  • Growers are looking to get a greater return this coming season.
date:  Jun 25, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on CALIFORNIA NATURAL SEEDLESS RAISINS – Report received from National Raisin Company
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

California Raisins raw material field pricing may be decided via arbitration!!

Raisins Update

The California RBA has proposed a growers price of $2,000 per ton for this year, this represents an increase of $225 per ton more than last year suggesting a 10 to 12 cents per Lb increase for packed product resulting in a nominal price in the region of $1.20 to $1.25 per Lb FOB. The packers counter proposal was to stick with last years prices.  This was rejected by the RBA on behalf of the growers.

Having failed to reach a compromise we expect the matter will be sent to arbitration, with a Federal Judge deciding the growers price for the 2015 harvest. The last time this occurred the price was not set until well over half way through the season, with packers unaware of their raw material input price for more than half of their years sales until months after they had been shipped. This caused packers to take a cautious approach to pricing, and in the medium term prices may increase as a result.
quality3
The California raisin industry is at a critical crossroads, it is trying to balance paying higher prices to growers to stop them from switching to more profitable tree nuts with keeping California competitive in world markets, with the backdrop of the ever worsening drought.

The shorter crop expected from Turkey this year, and increasing domestic consumption in China of their own material may give them some breathing space. Turkish prices already increased close to Californian prices, with more price increases likely as packers stocks diminish and they are forced to face Turkish growers higher price expectations based on the small crop.

Please let us know if you require any quotes.

date:  Jun 22, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on California Raisins raw material field pricing may be decided via arbitration!!
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

**SPECIAL DISCOUNTED OFFERS… Mixed Dried Fruit & Raw Chip Coconut***

We have some Dried Mixed Fruit and Dried Mixed Fruit with Peel available at a specially discounted price ofozgur

£1.28 per kg

coconut1

Also Raw Chip Coconut is available

£1.92 per kg

Both prices are ex-store, delivery is available at £50 per pallet

Enquiries to 01376 343500 or sales@chelmerfoods.com

(Prices subject final confirmation)

date:  Jun 22, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on **SPECIAL DISCOUNTED OFFERS… Mixed Dried Fruit & Raw Chip Coconut***
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Sunflower & Pumpkin Seeds Market Update…

Pumpkin Seeds –  Chinaseed3

RAW MATERIAL SUPPLY IS GETTING TIGHTER, PRICES NOT UNDER PRESSURE

The raw material is still scarce on the Chinese market and some packers are already sold out on the GWS kernels till the new crop. The Shine skin kernels have a better availability and are on a bit lower level then the GWS. During April, when stock in origin became less available , Chinese suppliers all raised their prices because everybody was afraid to run out of goods. Now in May we see that packers slowly have lowered their prices and the market is more stable. Of course, prices are still high, but there is still availability of good quality pumpkins in the market.

The expectation for new crop is that a lot of sunflower farmers will switch to plant pumpkin seeds this season. The export demand for pumpkin is high and also the profits are more attractive than for sunflower seeds.

Sunflower Market – Bulgaria

HIGH PRICES FOR NEW BULGARIAN SUNFLOWER CROPseed1

As we are getting near to the end of 2014 crop, stocks getting limited and new raw seeds for hulling getting more rare. We see hardly any offer for current Bulgarian crop. We only see some offer for limited quantities of sunflower kernels chips, which seems a good hedge for for the period until the end of September 2015.

Also important are the weather conditions for the new crop which are poor at the moment. Bulgaria has to deal with less rain. This dry weather ensures that the sunflower plants are behind there growing schedule. Because of these unsure circumstances about new crops quantity and quality we see prices going up very fast. Because of the emptiness / poor availability of the current crop we expect that on the first new crop shipments there will be a tremendous pressure on availability and there fore on prices.

we advise you to be very careful and to be covered until the end of September 2015 at the very least.

date:  Jun 18, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Sunflower & Pumpkin Seeds Market Update…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Ozgur Tarim latest Sultana export figures…

Ozgur advises That as of 13.06.2015, the exported quantity with Turkish sultanas has reached up to 211.166 tons with an average price of 1.791 usd / ton.  VLUU L100, M100  / Samsung L100, M100

 

 

Last year (2013 crop) during the same period of time the exported quantity was 136.920 tons with an average price of 2.580 usd / ton.

 

On a “weekly basis” , during the Calendar Week (CW) 24, 2015  (last week) ; 4.378 tons was exported with a weekly average price of usd 1.795 / ton.
During the Calender Week (CW) 24, 2014 ;  3.590 tons was shipped with a weekly average price of  2.313 usd / ton. 

 

Below you will find the export figures ( yearly / weekly ) of crop 2014.

>> Ozgur Export Report – 13.06.15 << Click Hereingredients2

date:  Jun 16, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Ozgur Tarim latest Sultana export figures…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Apricots historical data and market report on upcoming crop 2015…

You can find below last 10 years Average Dried Apricot export figures of Turkey . Details of these figures are available click here>>Apricots Data Last 10 years – World ( 2005-2014 )<<.

We do not have the numbers of Crop 2014’s last two months  yet .

Average World
From August to July next year
Quanity ton Total Amount $ Average Price $/kg
Whole 79.660 255.799.171 3,211
Diced 5.555 15.287.066 2,752
Industrial 11.480 17.235.229 1,501
Total 96.694 288.321.466 2,982

fruit1

 

 

 

 

As you can see on the above chart in an average value of last 10 years Turkey exports nearly 100.000 tons and with domestic market total demand is around 105.000 tons.

In Crop 2014 Season we have the lowest export quantity since Crop 1997 Season. Most  probably we will end up with an export quantity around 50.000 tons at end of July  .  This lowest quantity decrease the average export quantity  of last ten years a lot .

We foresee the Crop 2015 size as 92000 tons ( you can refer to my market report dated 27-05-2015). If we consider Turkey’s average demand ( exports + domestic ) as 105000 tons ,we estimate that  in Crop 2015 season Dried Apricots supply will be smaller than possible demand .

We will start Crop 2015 season with empty warehouses and  supermarket shelfs both in Turkey and importer countries. We do not expect any significant carry over from old crop to new crop  ( You can refer to my market report 13-05-2015 ) . Remaining quantity will be very poor quality and  for sure not for human consumption

Normally , we  see New Crop Dried Apricots in the market during mid July but this  season we expect intense new crop delivery to the market during mid August . This will create an important shortage at the begining of the Crop Season .

Closing prices of Crop 2014 wil have an influence on Crop 2015 prices . Growers will be reluctant to accept any lower prices  .

World’s biggest Dried Apricots market and Turkey’s second biggest Export partner is Russia. Middle Asian Countries Uzbekistan , Tajikistan , Kyrgyzstan are the  main supplier of this gigantic consumer.028

Due to the severe frost damage , Uzbekistan , Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan lost majority of their Apricots crop  . According the news we receive from that part of the world , the effect and size of the frost is as big as frost in Malatya in march 2013 which left Turkey without any fruit in Crop 2014 season.

Usually Russia imports around 15.000 tons of apricots from Turkey in a Crop Season  and much more than this amount from other sources .We expect that Russia will import minimum  its usual quantity from Turkey this season  as there will be no alternative sources .We beleive that Turkey will also receive additional demand from other countries like Ukraine , Belarussia etc .

If we consider that Turkey is almost the only Dried Apricots supplier in Crop 2015 season and its Crop is not even enough for its traditional markets , possibility of high prices during entire season is more than possibility of low prices .

Despite of above pessimistic indicators currency rates  may help us to lower our export price offers . Turkish lira is weak and  it is very likely that will lose further value by the help of FED and unstable political situation .

date:  Jun 16, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Apricots historical data and market report on upcoming crop 2015…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More
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