News

Subjective Almond Crop Estimate

The subjective production forecast for the 2015 California almond crop is 1.85 billion pounds, according to a survey conducted by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Forecasted almond2production is 1 percent below last year’s production of 1.87 billion pounds and 8 percent below 2013’s production of 2.01 billion pounds. Forecasted bearing acreage for 2015 is 890 thousand. The subjective production forecast is based on a telephone survey conducted from April 14 to April 29 from a sample of almond growers. Of the 485 growers sampled, 328 reported. Acreage from these reports accounted for 29 percent of the total bearing acreage.

The California almond bloom began in early February. The 2015 bloom was one of the earliest almond blooms in memory. In general, the bloom was fast and compact with Monterey and Fritz blooming earlier than Nonpareils. In several instances, the lower two-thirds of trees blossomed two weeks ahead of the top possibly indicating insufficient chilling hours. Nonpareil set appears to be less than optimal while pollinators were reported as looking good overall. Nuts were sizing well with the crop pace at least two weeks ahead of normal and also ahead of last year’s early crop. Insect pressure may exceed last year but remains manageable. Water is a problem for many growers with limited amounts available for purchase. Growers irrigating with well water expressed concern nuts2regarding salinity.

Please find below PDF Reports:

Almond Forecast 2015 < CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Almond Crop Estimate 2015 < CLICK HERE TO VIEW

date:  May 06, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Subjective Almond Crop Estimate
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Vine Fruit – The Frost Report – April 2015

There was a significant frost on the night of the 23rd April in the growing regions. The frost was wide spread and temperatures dropped between -1 to – 3 degrees between 4.00 and 6.00 am. There was already some dew on the vines at this time which resulted in a negative affect combined with the frost and this effectively burnt the developing bunches and leaves.

DSC_0149The damage is very severe with some vineyards losing 90% of their bunches. Although this is in the extreme cases, very few vineyards have escaped and the extent of damaged is different throughout the growing regions.

DSC_0073

In the regions of Ahmetli, Turgutlu, and Sahili the damage is around 50% on average. In Alasehir the damage is lower around 15 -20%. In the region of Saruhanli, Akisar and Golmamara the damage is in the region of 60%.

The above is an estimate and in some cases, one vineyard has no damage and some have 100%

Prior to the frost of the 23rd April there had been another frost a week before which did some limited damage, but critically hampered new births on the vines. This combined with the already developing bunches being damaged has had a huge impact. It is now very unlikely that the vines will now have a significant number of new births and those that are developing are male flowers and will not go on the develop fruit.

On speaking to growers their view is now more about damage limitation to the vines. In most case they have written off the crop from this year and will prune back the dead stems and treat the soil for the 2016 crop in order to protect the vines they have.

DSC_0124As you tour the various areas it is clear to see where the frost has damaged the vines as they have all turned brown. In the coming days there will be more new vine leaf growth and it will look like that the vines are more healthy again, however this is leaf development and not fruit, so although you can see healthy green vines the fruit has already been damaged and will not recover.

Typically the yields from a deciare of vines would be 500kg, last season this was much higher as it was a bumper crop, so we were seeing yields of up to 700kg. This year in the severely damaged vineyards they will not get more than 100kg.

The growing area is approximately 900,000 hectares, of this we estimate that 360,000 hectare has been lost due to frost damage, this is effectively 90,000mt of fruit. Those areas less effected such as Alasehir which also produce for fresh grape exports, typically 35% would be sold as fresh grapes. DSC_0139With losses of 20% this area will now account for half of its production as Fresh as this will take priority so the availability for dried will be less from this area.

Last year the crop was approximately 320,000 mt, this year based on an assessments of early development the crop was not looking as good and was estimated to be around 270,000mt as well the birth rates were lower.1

Using this as a starting point and applying the level of damage we do not expect to see a crop greater than 180,000 mt and this is an optimistic figure. We are expecting to see a carry in of around 35,000mt so the total available quantity will be around 215,000mt.

The industry, particularly that in Turkey has been much maligned for exaggerating the situation in the past, but this year there are very genuine reasons why we can expect a tough season.

Based on the area size last years and the yields, and what we have seen he have tried to estimate what the total crop will be. It has to be stressed that this our assessment and is only estimated

2014 Crop         2015 Crop      
 
 
Area KG/DA Yeild Tonnage   Area Yeild KG/DA Tonnage
                 
Menemen

30450

352

10718

  Menemen

30450

175

5328.75

Kemelpasa

28750

200

5750

  Kemelpasa

28750

175

5031.25

Toprbali

7900

300

2370

  Toprbali

7900

150

1185

Manisa

85638

355

30401

  Manisa

85638

200

17128

Suruhanli

85585

465

39797

  Suruhanli

85585

200

17117

Turgutlu

76800

385

29568

  Turgutlu

76800

200

15360

Ahmetli

50000

418

20900

  Ahmetli

50000

205

10250

Golmarmara

23200

544

12621

  Golmarmara

23200

200

4640

Akhisar

18000

500

9000

  Akhisar

18000

250

4500

Salhili (1)

108215

490

50374

  Salhili

108215

300

16232.25

Alasehir (2)

182500

520

61685

  Alasehir

182500

426

50158.06

Sarigol (3)

81523

688

28044

  Sarigol

81523

344

18093

Ruldan (4)

31700

640

8115

  Ruldan

31700

320

4610.909

Cal (5)

123000

174

14981

  Cal

123000

75

9225

Bekilli (6)

9940

174

1211

  Bekilli

9940

150

1146.923

Denizli (7)

41858

326

2631

  Denizli

41858

150

1255.74

 
Total

985059

………..

328166

  Total

985059

 

181261.3

(1) 50% deducted for fresh grape production
(2) 35% deducted for Fresh Grape production
(3) 50% deducted for Fresh Grape production
(4) 60% deducted for Fresh Grape production
(5) 33% deducted for Fresh Grape production
(6) 30% deducted for Fresh Grape production(7) 80% deducted for Fresh Grape production

 

date:  Apr 30, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Vine Fruit – The Frost Report – April 2015
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

The California Almond Acreage Report

California’s 2014 almond acreage is estimated at 1,020,000 acres, up 5% from the 2013 acreage of 970,000, according to a recent survey conducted by the National Agricultural Statistics Services.  Of the total acreage for 2014, 870,000 acres were bearing and 150,000 acres were non-bearing049

Preliminary bearing acreage for 2015 is estimated at 890,000 acres.

 Please find the attached historical almond production and bearing acres chart.

Please find the attached almond pricing charts for Stds-5% and NPS.

Price Almond record 042115

California Almond Acreage Production and Value 1995-2015

We received the following information this morning from the Almond Board of California about the 2014 Californian Acreage Report of the Californian Dried Fruit Association (CDFA) released by the National Agricultural Statistical Survey (NASS):

Today, the National Agricultural Statistical Survey from the USDA reported an increase in almond acreage planted this past year (see report in attachment). From the outside looking in, increasing acreage may seem counterintuitive to the current drought challenges facing our state. There are, however, a couple of facts that are key to understanding this report and what it means for our state’s most precious resource.

It is important to understand that the trees that were planted as part of this recent expansion in acreage were purchased over two years ago when the extent of this drought wasn’t fully known. Because tree nurseries don’t cultivate trees until they have orders, almond farmers must forecast their needs two years before they expect to put trees into the ground. Farmers who are finally receiving these orders are now left in the unenviable position of having to decide whether to plant these trees despite a significant lack of available water or lose their substantial investment.

While it may seem selfish to choose to plant instead of fallow their fields, there are several reasons why it makes sense to move forward even in the face of a severe drought.

First, while recent news reports make it seem like fallowing fields has no repercussions other than saving precious water, the reality is that there is a huge economic impact. Last year alone, the drought cost farmers more than $1.5 billion and caused the loss of 17,000 jobs.1 In fact, You might be surprised to know that the total amount of irrigated farmland in California has been decreasing in recent years.

Whether it’s an annual crop like tomatoes or a perennial crop like almonds, fallowing fields means laying off workers, reduced spending with service providers and lost income. While media reports have blamed almonds as a contributor to our current woes, the fact is that almonds make up a little more than 10 percent of the state’s irrigated farmland and use less than that percentage of California’s agricultural (not total) water. 3,4  Fallowing fields won’t solve our problems – only more rain will do that – but it will create substantial new ones.

Second, these new orchards do not use as much water as a fully established orchard. For the first three years, these young orchards require significantly less water as they establish themselves. So, in essence, farmers who are expanding their orchards are betting on the future. Should this drought continue and they can’t acquire water, they will ultimately lose their trees anyway. But, if we return to normal precipitation in the coming years, these trees will help the economy recover quicker by providing a crop that returns to California high economic value for the water it uses.

Finally, in some cases, newer trees are being used to replace older orchards and that presents a significant opportunity to create a more water efficient future. When an orchard is replaced a farmer can upgrade the irrigation system with the latest drip and micro sprinkler technology which conserve water by decreasing water runoff, applying water directly to the root zone to avoid waste, and for precise timing and rate of irrigation. Based on findings from the California Almond Sustainability program, more than 70 percent of almond orchards already use micro-irrigation systems.5 As a result, the almond industry has been able to reduce the amount of water it takes to grow a pound of almonds by 33 percent in the last 20 years. 6   Replanting can only help to improve those numbers.

We are committed to doing our part to help manage the current drought in a way that benefits all Californians. We need long-term, holistic solutions with input from all stakeholders. In the meantime, however, it makes no sense to let trees ordered two years ago die before they are put in the ground.

date:  Apr 30, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on The California Almond Acreage Report
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Hulled Sesame Seed update

UPDATE on Hulled Sesame Seed:—

The prices of Hulled Sesame Seed started dropping from US$ 2000 PMT CFR EMP in month of February 2015. The prices stopped at around US$ 1800 PMT towards end of March 2015. Around beginning of April The availability of the Raw Material tapered off suddenly. At around the same time Koreans came out with a Tender to buy 8000 Mts of Natural Sesame Seed. Indian exporters were awarded contracts for 5500 Metric Tons of Natural Sesame seed at prices. As a result Raw Material prices started going up.

The prices of Hulled Sesame Seed went  northwards to a level of about US$ 1925-1950 PMT CFR EMP. The demand from the customers was still bleak hence small volumes were traded.

As of now, Gujarat summer crop of Sesame Seed is expected to harvest around 15th May 2015. It is estimated that the crop size would be around 35-40,000 Metric Tons. Another important factor is Foreign Exchange. As you would know that US$ has become stronger against all the currencies including Indian Rupee. hugh

Considering all the important factors, the current price of Hulled Sesame Seed Premium Grade would be US$ 1850 PMT CFR Felixstowe for May 2015 shipment.

This in our opinion is a good price to consider buying. We are of the view that Hulled Sesame Seed prices will either remain around this level or may go up as and when we see a demand from the customers.

For any further information or buying interest, please contact Hugh@chelmerfoods.com

date:  Apr 29, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Hulled Sesame Seed update
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Apricots Market Update

Turkish Apricots Market Update

Written by:

G.Buttner & Co. B.V.
De Korf 54
2924 AH Krimpen aan den IJssel
The Netherlands

We would like to update you on the current state of the Turkish Apricot market, based on the information that we obtained from our first quality suppliers:KAYISI

The bloom for crop 2015 apricots was not satisfiying due to continuous frosts and heavy rains during March – April months. The weather conditions went quite unusual and the temperatures were lower than the seasonal averages for Malatya this year. There was another frost took place on 24th of April as the temperatures hit -3 C at Malatya while the fruit has came out of the flower which is the most risky stage for the product. Luckily, the frost of 24th of April didn’t effect the growing area as bad as the estimations. The freeze has seen at the same regions which were already damaged by the earlier frosts therefore the overall picture didn’t change so much. The regions which were in good conditions before 24th of April are still stabile without any serious damage so far.

The valley of Malatya is the place where big part of the crop is growing and the frosts effected some certain regions of the subject area. The frost damages at the valley is decreasing the total crop quantity directly as there are less apricots growing at the mountain regions of Malatya. The mountain area is just starting up therefore there is no damage reported at these fields so far…

There were also concerns from growers of heavy long rain periods in Malatya during the last two months has stopped some flowers to pollinate which is not turning into fruit. The subject situation will effect the crop quantity in a negative way as well. Actually, the starting point of the bloom was not so good as the frost of last year has left some permanent damages on the trees. There were less flowers than expected on the trees so the expectations for new crop were to be a regular one lıke 100.000 – 120.000 mtons range. The frost of last weekend decreased the crop quantity below 100.000 mtons for sure…

It seems like the frost risk on new crop apricots is over as the weather forecast shows sunny days for Malatya in the next 10 days time. The progress of the fruit during May will give us a concrete idea about next year’s crop quantity, quality, availability, etc… Especially the progress at the frost damaged gardens is very important for the next days…

We are expecting the new crop to be very well balanced in terms of the sizing of the fruit. All types will be available in the market. The bigger fruits will come from the frost damaged gardens and the small fruits will come from the mountain area and the gardens of valley which were not effected by the frost. The quality of new crop apricots will depend on the weather conditions during May – June months as the hail, rains, hot weathers, etc… will be the major factors effecting the quality of the fresh fruit…

There will not be any carry over quantity from this season to the next for sure. We think that all the goods in the market will be finished till July 2015 and the suppliers, raw material traders and farmers will start up the new season with “0” inventory. This is an unusual situation for the apricot market and never experienced within the last 20 years of time… The subject situation will create a huge demand on new crop apricots at the very beginning of the season as the suppliers will be trying to buy as much as fruits to start up the new season production… The subject activity will cause an increase on the raw material prices at the beginning of the season for sure…ağaçta kayısı 2

The US$ currency against TL will be a major factor effecting the apricot prices at the new season. The US$ reached 2,70 TL levels as of today and the expectations are an even higher currency in the next months. The subject increase of dollar against TL will create a pressure on the export prices in a positive way. Under normal market conditions, we are expecting the price of Type 4 apricots to be staying in the range of US$ 5.000 – 6.000.-/Mton during the new season.

The new crop will be delayed for about 20 days due to late start of the bloom and continuous rains during March – April months. The first shipments of the new season will take place after 15th of August this year. It seems like end July – early August shipments of new crop apricots will be impossible this season therefore the buyers should take their positions accordingly.

We are expecting a volatile market for current crop goods in the coming weeks cause the availability of the goods is getting less and less everyday. Especially the medium sizes like Type 4, 5 and 6’s are getting over in the market therefore we suggest our buyers to take their final position for the current crop goods asap.

We also would like to share the following statistics with you for the export quantities of dried apricots during the new season in comparision to last season.

DRIED APRICOT EXPORT TOTAL QUANTITYTURKEY 01.08.2013-25.04.2014 01.08.2014-25.04.2015
Quantity (mton)  Average Price (mton) Quantity (mton) Average Price (mton)
THE WHOLE APRICOTS 78.966 2.942 33.995 6.456
INDUSTRIAL APRICOTS 9.608 1.306 2.973 3.577
DICED APRICOTS 5.839 2.250 4.160 5.132
date:  Apr 28, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Apricots Market Update
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Frost…Frost…Frost…

Crop Development Update in Turkey

Over the last week in the growing region there has been a frost risk.  On the night of the 22nd there was a frost where temperatures dropped to -1 and some damage occurred in the vineyards. The tips and leaves have blackened and these will now not develop in to fruit.

Last night the temperature dropped to -4 and early indications are that there is significant damage,  it is being reported that in some areas the damage could be as high as 70% , but this has yet to be verified.

We have attached pictures of some of the damage from the night of the 22nd and we will give you a further update when we have more information and picture from the vineyards from last night’s damage

At this stage all offers have been withdrawn until a full assessment has been carried out.

22430_10153331158684063_459263747856664265_n 1907438_1029287770433632_6731712951828264066_n 10432534_10153331158924063_457636488840407597_n 11053170_1029287737100302_6338214866850673995_n 11163244_10153331158129063_933713174212215964_n 11173352_10153331157689063_6768696892427645238_n 11174823_1029287600433649_8790867750705233423_n 11175054_1029287800433629_2909897703682754667_n 11188189_1029287670433642_3139538943277816439_n

date:  Apr 24, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Frost…Frost…Frost…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Apricots Snapshot

There are frosts forecast for the next 2 or 3 nights so everyone is withdrawn and we will have to see how much damage they do.kayısı çiçeği 1

Already there have been losses of between 30 to 40% of the crop already with the potential to loose another 20 or 30% over the next few days.

Temperature is forecast to be lowest in Dogansehir and Hekiman which are the high altitude late flowering areas, currently in bloom

date:  Apr 23, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Apricots Snapshot
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More
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