News

Turkish Apricots historical data and market report on upcoming crop 2015…

You can find below last 10 years Average Dried Apricot export figures of Turkey . Details of these figures are available click here>>Apricots Data Last 10 years – World ( 2005-2014 )<<.

We do not have the numbers of Crop 2014’s last two months  yet .

Average World
From August to July next year
Quanity ton Total Amount $ Average Price $/kg
Whole 79.660 255.799.171 3,211
Diced 5.555 15.287.066 2,752
Industrial 11.480 17.235.229 1,501
Total 96.694 288.321.466 2,982

fruit1

 

 

 

 

As you can see on the above chart in an average value of last 10 years Turkey exports nearly 100.000 tons and with domestic market total demand is around 105.000 tons.

In Crop 2014 Season we have the lowest export quantity since Crop 1997 Season. Most  probably we will end up with an export quantity around 50.000 tons at end of July  .  This lowest quantity decrease the average export quantity  of last ten years a lot .

We foresee the Crop 2015 size as 92000 tons ( you can refer to my market report dated 27-05-2015). If we consider Turkey’s average demand ( exports + domestic ) as 105000 tons ,we estimate that  in Crop 2015 season Dried Apricots supply will be smaller than possible demand .

We will start Crop 2015 season with empty warehouses and  supermarket shelfs both in Turkey and importer countries. We do not expect any significant carry over from old crop to new crop  ( You can refer to my market report 13-05-2015 ) . Remaining quantity will be very poor quality and  for sure not for human consumption

Normally , we  see New Crop Dried Apricots in the market during mid July but this  season we expect intense new crop delivery to the market during mid August . This will create an important shortage at the begining of the Crop Season .

Closing prices of Crop 2014 wil have an influence on Crop 2015 prices . Growers will be reluctant to accept any lower prices  .

World’s biggest Dried Apricots market and Turkey’s second biggest Export partner is Russia. Middle Asian Countries Uzbekistan , Tajikistan , Kyrgyzstan are the  main supplier of this gigantic consumer.028

Due to the severe frost damage , Uzbekistan , Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan lost majority of their Apricots crop  . According the news we receive from that part of the world , the effect and size of the frost is as big as frost in Malatya in march 2013 which left Turkey without any fruit in Crop 2014 season.

Usually Russia imports around 15.000 tons of apricots from Turkey in a Crop Season  and much more than this amount from other sources .We expect that Russia will import minimum  its usual quantity from Turkey this season  as there will be no alternative sources .We beleive that Turkey will also receive additional demand from other countries like Ukraine , Belarussia etc .

If we consider that Turkey is almost the only Dried Apricots supplier in Crop 2015 season and its Crop is not even enough for its traditional markets , possibility of high prices during entire season is more than possibility of low prices .

Despite of above pessimistic indicators currency rates  may help us to lower our export price offers . Turkish lira is weak and  it is very likely that will lose further value by the help of FED and unstable political situation .

date:  Jun 16, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Apricots historical data and market report on upcoming crop 2015…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Hazelnut Market Info 15.6.15

TURKISH HAZELNUT MARKET

“Powdery mildew” in hazelnuts: Chamber of commerce in Altinordu, Metin Akyurek, said that it is very likely there would be loss in 2015 hazelnut crop since it is affected by “powdery mildew” disease that is white, powdery spreading patches of fungus on upper or lower leaf surfaces, flowers and fruit. Akyurek said that cold and rainy weather as well as high level of humidity during past one moth in Black sea region fastened the progress of this disease. According to Turan Karadeniz from Agricultural Department of University of Ordu, farmers should apply relevant chemicals in order to fight with the disease as soon as possible. Hazelnut crop matures gradually; this disease may cause immature nuts falling as well as post-harvest problems. Plant Protection Central Research Institute and General Directorate of Agricultural Research in Ankara also courage farmers to take the necessary steps to fight with the disease. (Source: hurriyet.com.tr)

PRICES047

Fluctuations in hazelnut prices at local level continue this week. Turkish hazelnut prices edge upwards in lira terms. On the other hand, Turkish lira is 4% weaker against the US dollar following this weekend’s election results that is not allowing forming a single-party government.

EXPORT

As the month of May, the 2014 season of exported hazelnut kernels the total amount of reached 177.923,0 MT and $2.247.066.906- Last year at this time the amount of exported hazelnut kernels were 214.815,3 MT and $1.550.339.178 (Source: iib.org.tr)

date:  Jun 16, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Hazelnut Market Info 15.6.15
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Californian Raisins Carry out estimates down sent to us by Fresh Pacific…

Exports are trending down at 21% and overall the sales are down 11%. With the reduced crop size the July 31, 2015 carryout should be about 100,000 tons. This carry out is about 23% less than last year which will give a good balance start to the 2015 crop.ingredients1

Packers appear to be more inclined to maintain the same grower price as last and very dedicated to firming up their selling prices. The 2015 crop does appear to have more mildew and mold problems created by the high humidity and light rains that occurred in May. Not enough rain to put a dent  in the drought but enough to be a nuisance for growers. We are recommending to several of our suppliers to continue purchasing 2014 crop for it may be a better quality overall than the early  2015 crop. The 2015 crop is still being projected to be over 300,000 tons. The wineries have advised growers that they have no interest in raisin varietal grapes from the approaching crop. This will put more acreage devoted to raisin production and offset the impact of the pullouts that were executed this year.

You will see in the report that there is a significant amount “Other Seedless” that will be carried into the 2015 crop year. We do expect to see some good pricing for this type of raisins. Possible price levels could be well  below $1.00 for this type of raisins.

 

                                   RAISIN INDUSTRY POSITION REPORT
                               Month: April 2013/14 and 2014/2015
NTS NTS DIPPED DIPPED GOLDEN GOLDEN ZANTE ZANTE OTHER OTHER
13-14 14-15 13-14 14-15 13-14 14-15 13-14 14-15 13-14 14-15
Packer Inventory 1 August 132,407 138,215 1,576 1,341 4,917 7,116 2,353 1,858 4,107 5786
USDA Certified Deliveries to Processors 16-May 345,684 298,017 5,050 3,907 21,228 19,034 2,651 3,069 10,045 13793
USDA Certified Deliveries to Processors  July 31 19,109 tba -125 tba 174 tba 234 tba 424 tba
Total Available Inventory 497,200 436,232 6,501 5,248 26,319 26,150 5,238 4,927 14,576 19579
Sales through May 31 31-May -285,868 -255,166 -2,258 -1,854 -14,883 -16,420 -2,493 -2,058 -7,399 (7683)
Processing Losses -17,152 -15,310 -135 -111 -893 -985 -499 -412 (444) (461)
Total Available Inventory May 31 31-May 194,180 165,756 4,108 3,283 10,543 8,745 2,246 2,457 6,733 11,435
Additional Sales through July 31 31-Jul -59,718 tba -1,297 -2,746 tba -380 -1,004 tba
Processing Losses -3,583 tba -78 -165 tba -76 -60 tba
Total Available Inventory July 31 31-Jul 130,879 tba 2,733 tba 7,632 tba 1,790 tba 5,669 tba
date:  Jun 15, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Californian Raisins Carry out estimates down sent to us by Fresh Pacific…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

May Almond Shipments +139.6 million lbs *Position Report*

*Special Price available for end June arrival – Californian Carmel Supreme Natural Almonds 25/26 – Can offer at £7.50 per kg* 

 

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:   +1.539 Billion pounds compared to  +1.652  billion pounds last year for a decrease of 6.83%.almond2

CROP RECEIPT:   Are at  1.886  billion pounds and last year was at 2.007 billion pounds for a decrease of 7%.

NET NEW SALES: The new sales during the month of May were 105 million pounds.

OVERALL: Crop is down 7% and shipments are off 6.83% so both are basically in balance at this time.

JUNE SHIPMENTS:  The shipments look slightly stronger than last year at this time.

CURRENT CROP:  With the continued strong shipments our ending carry out continues to be depleted.

NEW CROP:  The Objective Estimate will be announced on July 1. Most are predicting a crop in the range of 1.85 to 1.90 billion pounds. Chris Wilding

 

The Almond Board released its May 2015 Industry Position Report today, shipments for the month were 139.6 mil lbs versus 143.7 mil lbs in May 2014. Uncommitted inventory is 290 mil lbs versus 329 mil. US shipments were down, 52.35 versus 54.64 mil lbs. Exports were 87.25 mil vs. 89.1 mil.. India (7.46mil vs. 5.96 mil) and China/Hong Kong (3.14 mil vs. 2.73 mil) continue to be strong. Europe was slightly down (-6%) and the Middle East (+3%) was slightly up.

Current Crop: In the past month sellers have become more aggressive on large size NP and Carmel’s, currently offers for 20/22 and 27/30 (if you can find them) are separated by .03-.05/lb. Domestic, Middle East and European markets have been inconsistent, as buyers only cover exactly what they need to get through to new crop. India has finally slowed down, as the high shipping figures we have seen for the last 3 months shipments make their way into the local markets. China/Hong Kong has been the exception, as buyers attempt to purchase what little remains of inshell inventory.

New Crop: Demand is strong from all major markets with limited offers from CA as fear over water availability and inconsistent NP crop increases. Recent trades on new crop are at or slightly above current crop levels.

Moving forward, much like last year, we expect offers to continue to “trickle” out through the fall,  as sellers avoid offering larger blocks. This is to the dismay of large users who prefer to contract large quantities at one price, rather than patch together smaller quantities at varying prices throughout the year. This behaviour could cause prices to remain firm for the foreseeable future.

Position report  http://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/content/newsletters/attachments/2015.05posrpt.pdf

For all almond enquiries please contact chris@chelmerfoods.com

date:  Jun 12, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on May Almond Shipments +139.6 million lbs *Position Report*
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Update for dried apricots market and may export figures

Apricot UpdateDogancan

Exports in May were in line with expectations at 3,346 tons, compared to 6,416 tons last year.

Year to date exports are 45,177 tons compared to 101,810 tons last year.apricots3

Current Crop
Stocks are coming to an end, exports are likely to taper off further in the remaining 2 months of the season leaving final figures estimated as follows

2013 Carry In      40,000 tons
2014 Crop           15,000 tons
Total supply        55,000 tons  (Note this is the exact figure we forecast in our 14 April 2014 report, pat on the back for our survey department)

Exports                51,000 tons
Domestic cons      4,000 tons
2014 carry in              Nil

New Crop
The weather has been a little cooler than usual, therefore the crop still looks late, we expect harvest to start 2 weeks later than usual, and August shipments will be tight. There has been some hail damage, and there appears to be more fungal disease in the branches than usual possibly the result of the hard frosts on the bark, this has resulted in some cases in tnear total l028oss of orchards.

We continue to cautiously forecast a crop of 70,000 to 80,000 tons but we increasingly expect that it will be closer to the low side of our estimate.

Business for new crop organic and sulphured has been reported, with the opening prices for new crop conventional fruit some $200 to $300 per ton higher than closing current crop prices. Small sizes will be tight on new crop, and premiums for larger sizes will shrink or possibly disappear.

We will be happy to answer any questions and quote against specific enquiries.

date:  Jun 04, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Update for dried apricots market and may export figures
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Oh Hail No…. Further bad new with the progress of the new Turkish vine crop….

Overnight the growing regions in Turkey have been hit with a bad hail storm which has further damaged significant growth development.

The forecast outlook does not look good with further storms expected.

All packers are currently withdrawn from the market

Full report to follow…photos below

11652_10153343470889727_3175108626856736764_n 10405467_10153343471069727_4968427795879704671_n 11033149_10153343470789727_8196071095938646086_n 11377107_10153343470534727_7251653391221487874_n 11390111_10153343470054727_8696073936443009629_n 11392951_10153343470644727_6410466295880531236_n 11400993_10153343469634727_2628166610777398433_n 11401060_10153343471449727_2731798786493859953_n 11401402_10153343469094727_807306781785712357_n 11403221_10153343471289727_2031331486501787332_n 11412355_10153343470289727_8168488902363996266_n IMG_1179 IMG_1180 IMG_1181 IMG_1182 IMG_1183 IMG_1184

date:  Jun 04, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Oh Hail No…. Further bad new with the progress of the new Turkish vine crop….
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Hazelnuts Update…

TURKISH HAZELNUTS

Hazelnut prices have weakened just under 6% in Turkish lira terms over the last two weeks, they have dropped from a record high of 42.5 TL / kilo raw kernels on 21st May to 40 TL today. In US$ terms the decrease has been even more marked at just over 7%. Sizable fluctuations are to be expected as with very little 2014 crop remaining and most manufacturers covered trade is thin hence the increased volatility.047

 Exports for the 2014 season show to date that tonnages are down by just under 18%. Export in the week ending  29/05 were 3,392 mt, total so far this season 177,931 mt, last season same time 216,815 mt (all kernel basis) it seems we will end the season with approximately 220,000 mt ( 460-465,000 mt in shell), domestic demand is put at 80,000 mt in shell for the season.

 In recent days the increase of nuts arriving from both Manave’s and farmers seems due to the fact that many now have little reason to doubt the first estimate of the 2015 crop announced at the INC in Antalya. Although still with some uncertainty the Turkish exporters unions announced 640,000 mt in shell (based on flower count), this coupled with better crops in Italy and the other producing countries would provide more than enough Hazelnuts for Global demand, especially taking into account the drop in consumption of close to 20 % seen so far this season.

 Development of the market over the coming weeks will focus on the first estimates based on fruit count which we hope will further underline a crop of at least 600 but closer to the 640,000 mt already announced.

date:  Jun 02, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Hazelnuts Update…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Dried Apricots Official Crop Estimate announced…

Crop 2015  Official Crop estimate is announced as  84.500 tons

How accurate are these estimates.ağaçta kayısı 1

Are they really useful to have an idea about the  actual Crop Size?

To have an answer to the above questions we made some simple calculations with the last 10 years’ figures. You can find attached Official Crop Estimations and Seasonal Dried Apricot exports of Turkey below:

all figures are on m/ ton basis ** Figures are between 1th of August and 31th of July- Crop Season
*** 31th July figures are not avilable yet . This is the our forecast
Crop Season Total Export Quantity Crop Size Estimation
July to August Whole + Diced + Ind.
Crop 2005 114,650 124,377
Crop 2006 107,236 62,111 Estimates Actual
Crop 2007 100,310 79,035
Crop 2008 96,525 103,193 10 years 10 years
Crop 2009 94,896 100,790 956,196 1,041,763
Crop 2010 87,144 54,500
Crop 2011 96,001 136,917 Crop 2015 Crop 2015
Crop 2012 113,423 176,718 84,500 92,062
Crop 2013 111,578 110,345
Crop 2014 50,000 8,210
Total 971,763 956,196
Domestic 70,000
Total Consumption 1,041,763
Difference 85,567

 

We start with Crop 2005 season because  in Crop 2004 there was no Crop estimation.  Due to the severe frost damage no crop was available and during Crop 2004 season all carry over stocks from previous crops  finished . We have started Crop 2005 without any stock . In Crop 2014 season,  also consumed all remaining stocks from past seasons as,  again due to the severe frost almost all of the crop have been damaged ( you can refer to my report dated 13-05-2015 ).

So between  2005 season ( started with no stocks ) and  2014 season ( all available fruit new and old crops used up  ) we have consumed nearly all produced Dried Apricots . Great opportunity for some calculations .

As you can see on the attached chart the sum of Dried Apricots export of Turkey  between 2005 and  2014 is 971.763 tons . We can add to this number 70.000 tons ( 7000 tons per year ) for domestic market . So we can say that in the last 10 years 1.041.763 tons have been consumed . This amount must be the actual crop size of the last ten years  .

The sum of Crop Estimates between 2005 and 2014 is  956.196 tonsfruit1

The difference between actual crop and official estimate is only 85.567 tons in the total of last ten years .

According to above calculations,  when we have 956.196 tons estimation we have 1.041.763 tons actual fruit . If we consider that we have 84.500 tons estimation we can expect 92.000 tons of actual fruit in Crop 2015 Season .

As you know , during flowering we had snow , rain and all other bad weather conditions in Malatya so the fruit become sparse on the trees . On the other hand due these weather conditions Orchards had no water problem . It is very likely that we will have mostly big size apricots this year .

As usual, this season we will  have plenty of hail damaged and heavily speckled fruits . Even last week we had rains and hail in Malatya .

Because of  cold weather until April,  In general , from all fields  we expect the product about two weeks delayed compared to previous seasons . In addition to these general delays we expect less fruit from the early harvesting regions . At the first days of the Crop Season we receive the fruit from North , from Baskil ( Elazıg ) area but those areas are the most frost damaged areas .

So we expect abundant new crop in the market during mid August which is quite late .

date:  Jun 02, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Dried Apricots Official Crop Estimate announced…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

The Work of the Raisin Administrative Committee & California Raisin Marketing Board Compiled by the Staff of the RAC/CRMB

DELIVERIES TO HANDLERS

For the period of April 12, 2015 through May 16, 2015:

11,644 tons of Natural (sun-dried) Seedless (NS) raisins were delivered to handlers.

12,6167 tons of all varietal types were delivered.

8,729 tons of all varietal types were delivered for the same period last year.

298,018 tons of NS raisins have been delivered for the year-to-date. This compares to 352,543 tons of NS deliveries as of this date a year ago. aime

338,311 tons of all varietal types have been delivered YTD, compared to 392,419 tons in 2013-2014.

13,281 tons of the NS deliveries for 2014-15 crop year are organic.

3,098 tons of NS are held on memo storage.

1,312 tons of NS are held for reconditioning.

RAC reports may be found at www.raisins.org

 

APRIL SHIPMENTS

The RAC April 2015 shipment report of Natural (sun-dried) Seedless (NS) Raisins shows that domestic shipments (including Canada) were 16,299 packed tons, compared to 18,952 tons in 2014

(-14%). Year-to-date domestic shipments are 146,263 packed tons compared to 147,411 tons at this time in 2014 (-1%).

NS export shipments (without Canada) for April 2015 were 10,625 packed tons, compared to 13,120 tons in 2014 (-19%). YTD export shipments are 86,103 packed tons, compared to 105,962 tons a year ago, a decrease of 19%.

NS shipments to all destinations year-to-date are 232,366 packed tons, compared to 253,373 packed tons for last year (-8%).

Top 20 Destinations for AprilboghosianImage

Natural Seedless

Packed Tons

April Rank Destination Tonnage Previous Rank YTD Tonnage

8/01/14-4/30/15

1 United States 15,315 1 139,340
2 Japan 2,688 2 19,072
3 China 1,277 4 6,415
4 Canada 984 6 6,923
5 United Kingdom 977 3 10,700
6 Germany 788 5 6,331
7 South Korea 604 9 3,442
8 Taiwan 488 7 3,823
9 Philippines 487 14 2,305
10 Malaysia 456 15 2,298
11 Thailand 300 8 1,928
12 Netherlands 254 17 2,436
13 Singapore 237 (-) 1,158
14 Sweden 232 12 3,704
15 Indonesia 230 20 1,083
16 Denmark 194 11 2,599
17 Hong Kong 188 16 1,280
18 Norway 186 13 2,228
19 New Zealand 127 (-) 1,071
20 Mexico 95 10 2,824

 

date:  Jun 02, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on The Work of the Raisin Administrative Committee & California Raisin Marketing Board Compiled by the Staff of the RAC/CRMB
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More
Page 23 of 28« First...10...2122232425...Last »