Click Here >>The Balsu Weekly Market Report (Week _46_July_2015)<<
Above you will find Balsu Weekly market report…
Click Here >>The Balsu Weekly Market Report (Week _46_July_2015)<<
Above you will find Balsu Weekly market report…
Year to date exports are 48,578 tons compared to 107,742 last year.
We expect similar or slightly lower levels for July leaving no significant carry over.
The harvest of new crop has started on the plains, both for the fresh market and for drying. The fresh fruit market is paying between 2 Lira and 4 Lira depending on the quality (blemished and small fruit being the cheaper end of the range), this equates to a dried price in the region of $5.00 per kg for clean size 4 fruit. Fresh fruit buyers are reporting orchards coming in lighter than they expected. There is very little small fruit indeed, with much of the crop expected to dry down to size 2 and 3. First arrivals are expected to come to the market at the beginning of August, with early arrivals eagerly awaited by an empty market.
Consensus is for a small crop of between 70,000 and 80,000 tons.
Organic will be tight, there is lively competition for a reduced number of organic growers and uncovered buyers are recommended to book their requirements now if they do not want to be left without fruit again this year.
Larger packers have been reluctant to offer aggressively fearing grower resistance to current pricing, and having zero carryover stocks against which to hedge any foreword sales. Except in the very biggest crops, ie those above 150,000 tons, we do not see prices fall during the first quarter of the season. The most likely scenario is for rising prices during the busy autumn period when packers will compete with speculators who are cash rich after the major price rises last year.
Packers who defaulted on their contracts last year are throwing attention grabbing prices at the market hoping to attract new customers to replace those they let down last year. The end result is a less than transparent market situation.
The buyers are currently weighing up the best time and price to get into the market, and with time moving against them I suspect they will all jump at the same time (as usual), and this in itself may trigger the sort of movement the packers are nervous of. We think the current prices are appropriate for the size of crop expected, they have held steady for the past month or so.
Click Here for Market report by Doraintrade on Turkish Dried Apricots >>Doraintrade – Newsletter Dried Apricots July 2015<<
This report can be viewed via PDF by clicking here>> Chelmer Foods – Turkish Sultans Report July 2015 <<
The 2015 crop from Turkey is looking decidedly difficult this season. Following severe frost damaged in large areas of the growing region, hail storms and much wetter weather than normal the vineyards have been beset with issues.
Last year the crop was officially estimated at 328,000mt and there were some that thought that this may be a conservative figure, however it now increasingly looks like that the figure was closer to 310,000mt. Due to the large crop and wet weather during the drying period it was not possible to dry down all the grapes to the required quality and in some cases the fruit was not dried as the window of opportunity was lost.
Exports to date from the 2014 crop stand at 223,000mt, we expect by the end of August that this figure will reach 255,000mt. Alcohol production and domestic demand is around 25,000mt so we can expect a carry over of 30,000mt, far shorter than some of the numbers that have been suggested. Due to the early frost damage some of the growing regions are going to yield 80% less than last year, on inspection of the vineyards some of these vines have the odd bunch sporadically dotted around, It really depends on the area as to the extent of the damage. In some cases growers will not even harvest what remains as the cost of the labour will outweigh value of the yield so they will just leave it.
Based on several assessments we can expect to see new crop coming in at 170,000 mt so combined with the carry over a total of 200,000mt. There is very little raw material being offered in the market and what is being offered is of very poor quality. Raw material prices are between 5.2 to 5.5 TL and even laser scanned rejects are trading at 5 TL.
With damage in certain growing areas there will be a strong demand for fresh grape exports from areas which traditionally supply grapes for drying. The largest export market for fresh grapes from Turkey is the Ukraine and Russia, it was expected that the demand would be lower due to the issues in the Ukraine, however with Russia imposing further restrictions on importing food products from the EU, there may be stronger demand for fresh grapes from Turkey.
We do not expect that Turkey will dry down any Raisins due to what will be a very short crop, and there will be very limited supply from the 2014 crop.
There is a general consensus of opinion that indicates new crop prices will open at 6TL makingraw material prices $ 2230 per my at today’s exchange rates. Based on this we will be looking at new crop prices of $ 2500 per mt
Last season the typical yield from the vineyards would have been 600 – 800kg per declare (1000m2). This season in the worst affected areas the yield will not be greater than 50kg. In these vineyards it is very unlikely that the growers will harvest as they will not get the return to justify it.
Some of the better regions we can expect to see around 400kg per declare which is a much better return although significantly lower than last season. With lowr bunch counts we will also see much larger berries and it will be very difficult to obtain small and midget grades and where it is available it will be at a premium.
Due to the very wet weather up until the last week we are also seeing so isolated disease issues with Grape Berry moths and mould growth such as ash disease. Growers have used pesticides to try and prevent this but the rain has been washing it away rendering it ineffective.
We will keep you updated of further developments.
Report by Marcus Welch, Director
Pleas find the latest export figure details from our partner Ozgur
CLICK HERE for export figures ( yearly / weekly ) of crop 2014 in PDF format >>Ozgur Export Report – 09.07.15<<
As of 04.07.2015, the exported quantity have reached 223.977 mt with an average price of 1.791 usd / ton.
Last year (2013 crop) during the same period of time the exported quantity was 152.232 mt with an average price of 2.550 usd / ton.
On a “weekly basis” , during the Calendar Week (CW) 27, 2015 (last week) ; 4.368 mt was exported with a weekly average price of usd 1.789 / ton.
During the Calender Week (CW) 27, 2014 ; 3.764 mt was shipped with a weekly average price of 2.256 usd / ton.
Enclosed you will find the export figures ( yearly / weekly ) of crop 2014.
As things now stand, although the crop in some villages was damaged by hail storm during early June, coming 2015 walnut crop is estimated to be an above average and yield is expected to be in vicinity of 45000 metric tons on walnut in shell basis, contrasted with 30000 thousand metric tons of 2014 crop.
Domestic consumption is expected to account for about 25000 metric tons on walnut inshell basis, and about 20000 metric tons will be available for export that means about 7000 metric tons in walnut kernels will be available for export.
Prices initially will open at high levels as Indian Christmas (Diwali) is on November 11, 2015 and first supplies will go for domestic festival season. Prices will stabilise in second half of November. Even though the carry over of 2014 walnut crop is about 10 to 15% about 5000 metric tons on walnuts inshell basis, but stockists are not selling their walnut stocks of 2014 crop even when offered realistic prices.
We will offer only during second half of September after the walnut crop is harvested and prices are known from all origins, as no exporter is in position to speculate as we do not know at what prices growers will sell their next crop.
Report received from our Indian Walnut partners Amar Singh
Taris Fig – June 2015 Area Report << Click here for the PDF Report
New crop will arrive about end November earliest this year as the plantings were delayed in Northern China due to heavy rain in March/April.
Plantings have been good this year but it is too early to know how the new crop will look – later in August we will have the first ideas.
All depends on the weather in the coming months , demand domestically in China is very high especially for December onwards for the New year celebrations/holidays.
As per last year some exporters are worried that Speculators will get involved in the market again and we may see prices move up again .
The market in Bulgaria has tightened up in the last few weeks as processors scramble for the last remaining current crop material to fulfil their existing contract. We are unable to purchase any more current crop at the moment.
New crop is expected to be shipped mid/end September this year so we feel that stocks here and in mainland Europe will be very short until October 15.
A good crop is expected as plantings were up but demand for oilseed sunflower is also up so we don’t see any major downward movement in the foreseeable future.
China is still very competitive against USA origin at the moment. Feel prices are currently very attractive and the fact that a lot of farmers in China have planted pumpkin this year instead of sunflower may signify that the sunflower market is near its bottom.
Prices in India are quite volatile at the moment, depending on demand ,recently a large tender from Korea for 8000 mt of natural sesame pushed the market back up after several weeks of it being soft. New crop is not until end October /early November so feel that prices are not likely to drop much at least until the new crop tonnage is known in Autumn.
Both brown and yellow are historically very low at the moment with plentiful supply. Would suggest taking cover at least until October/November 2015.
Prices a have edged up a bit in the USA with increased demand lately. New crop will not be available until October at the earliest so advise taking cover.
Levels have stabilised and supply is plentiful so would suggest taking some cover up to October 2015.
California Almond Objective Presentation 2015 <<Click Here
California Almond Objective Report 2015 Release <<Click Here
California’s 2015 almond production is forecast at 1.80 billion meat
pounds, down 3 percent from May’s subjective forecast and down 4
percent from last year’s crop. The forecast is based on 890 thousand
bearing acres. Production for the Nonpareil variety is forecast at 670
million meat pounds, down 6 percent from last year’s deliveries. The
Nonpareil variety represents 37 percent of California’s total almond
The average nut set per tree is 5,874, down 12 percent from 2014. The
Nonpareil average nut set is 5,239, down 14 percent from last year. The
average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.43 grams, down 1
percent from the 2014 average weight of 1.45. The Nonpareil average
kernel weight was 1.61, up slightly from last year. A total of 98.8 percent
of all nuts sized were sound.
With the crop estimated to be smaller than last year and smaller than the subjective estimate, we may see all prices begin firming up by 10-20 cents per lbs in the coming days.
If you have any demand please advise us. We look forward to assisting you.
Please note, much of the USA will be on a long holiday weekend for our 4th of July holiday.
Report credit of Summit Almonds: www.summittreenuts.com
DELIVERIES TO HANDLERS
For the period of June 14, 2015 through June 20, 2015:
1,320 tons of Natural (sun-dried) Seedless (NS) raisins were delivered to handlers.
1,383 tons of all varietal types were delivered.
1,480 tons of all varietal types were delivered for the same period last year.
300,352 tons of NS raisins have been delivered for the year-to-date. This compares to 360,066 tons of NS deliveries as of this date a year ago.
340,807 tons of all varietal types have been delivered YTD, compared to 400,158 tons in 2013-2014.
13,766 tons of the NS deliveries for 2014-15 crop year are organic.
2,709 tons of NS are held on memo storage.
1,034 tons of NS are held for reconditioning.
RAC reports may be found at www.raisins.org
The RAC May 2015 shipment report of Natural (sun-dried) Seedless (NS) Raisins shows that domestic shipments (including Canada) were 14,626 packed tons, compared to 19,444 tons in 2014 (-25%). Year-to-date domestic shipments are 160,889 packed tons compared to 166,855 tons at this time in 2014 (-4%).
NS export shipments (without Canada) for May 2015 were 8,174 packed tons, compared to 13,051 tons in 2014 (-37%). YTD export shipments are 94,276 packed tons, compared to 119,014 tons a year ago, a decrease of 21%.
NS shipments to all destinations year-to-date are 255,166 packed tons, compared to 285,868 packed tons for last year (-11%).
Top 20 Destinations for May
|April Rank||Destination||Tonnage||Previous Rank||YTD Tonnage