News

Turkish Vine Fruit Report

There is no significant change in the Turkish Sultanas & Raisin market. All raw material which is currently being bought to the bourse is being bought and we have seen some slow and small increases, but buyers and sellers are very calm. It is normal for December to have a slight dip in the market. After the second half of December, European markets are generally closed and this period continues into the beginning of the new year.

From the beginning of the season up to last week, 177.016 kg sultanas raisins have been traded from bourses, so with more than half of the crop already out of the hands of the growers.  There is a longer period ahead, so more water will pass from underneath the bridge.

During last week Std.Type N.8 sultanas were traded at levels of 4.15 to 4.20 TL, Std.Type N.9 sultanas were traded at levels of 4.25 – 4.35 TL. Type N.10 sultanas are arrived at limited quantities at the bourse with prices 4.55 Tl-4.60 TL.

We do not expect very serious changes in the short term, but political developments can be hard to reflect in USD currency terms in the period, which can seriously affect the price of the Turkish sultanas raisins.

Currently;

-Customers are not rushing as they were last year (Chlorpyrifos issue- last year)

-Everyone (grower, exporter, trader, customer/ user) has enough stock in their hands

-Competing countries are high but also flat; perhaps US up to $3250 from previous 2800

-Prices are around US 3,000, Aus 2500, S Afr 1900, Arg 1800, Iran 1500, Ch 1500

-It is very difficult to guess Natural Thomson Seedless Raisin figure in Turkey; while total volume is believed to be 310-340K MT.

-Very limited good quality dark fruit around due to lack of rain

date:  Dec 20, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Vine Fruit Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

The Almond Board of California has released the November Almond Position Report

The Almond Board of California has released the November Almond Position Report with shipments of +228.46 million pounds compared to last year’s 187.5 million pounds for an increase of  +21.8 percent

DOMESTIC:         61.12 million pounds     +17%
EXPORT:               167.34 million pounds   +23.7%

                                Month- November
CHINA                  +27 mil lbs
INDIA                    +29.9 mil lbs
S. KOREA             +5.7 mil lbs
GERMANY          +11.2 mil lbs
SPAIN                   +14.9 mil lbs
TURKEY                +5.7 mil lbs
UAE                       +6.3 mil lbs

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:  +834 million pounds compared to 794 million pounds for an increase of +4.97%.
                                CROP YEAR TO DATE       Increase/Decrease
CHINA                  +91.8 mil lbs                      -8%
INDIA                    +110 mil lbs                        +24%
S. KOREA             +15.6 mil lbs                      -2%
GERMANY          +42.1 mil lbs                      +20%
SPAIN                   +60.1 mil lbs                      +3%
TURKEY                +26.4 mil lbs                      -1%
UAE                       +28.7 mil lbs                      +13%

CROP RECEIPTS:  The crop receipts are now at +1.993  billion pounds compared to last year’s 1.930 billion pounds for an increase of +3.27  percent.

NEW SALES in NOVEMBER:- New sales of +211 million pounds were made during November.  Another record month for sales in November!

MARKETS: The markets have been expecting these strong shipments for a while now and prices have remained stable to slightly firmer.  With this record number for shipments, we may see packers/growers attempt to move up prices by 5-10 cents per pound in the short term. December shipments look to be extremely strong as well which should keep markets firm until mid-January. Some packers are already reporting that they are full for January at this time.

RAIN: California is lacking in rain thus far this season. None is forecasted in the near future. Snow pack is minimal. If this trend continues into early January you will hear more discussions about rain.

date:  Dec 13, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on The Almond Board of California has released the November Almond Position Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

California Walnuts – NOVEMBER 2017 WALNUT MONTHLY MANAGEMENT REPORT

On Friday,  December 8th, the California Walnut Board released the November 2017 Position Report.   Shipments for the month ended November 2017 were down approximately 9.9% versus November 2016 shipments and for the 3 months ended November 2017 were down approximately 21.3% from the same 3 month period the year prior.   For your review is a summary comparison on an inshell comparable basis using an identical shell out rate of 44.1% for both years:
                                       Inshell             Inshell
Equiv.              Equiv.
Tons               Tons             %
Nov. 2017       Nov. 2016     Chg

Crop Receipts                   614,565        675,797    -9.1%
Total Supply                      670,541        740,967    -9.5%
Monthly Shipments             99,091        109,939    -9.9%
Export Shipments               74,785          85,099   -12.1%
Domestic Shipments           24,306         24,840    -2.1%
YTD Shipments                 229,891       292,102   -21.3%
YTD Export Shipments      164,603       220,630   -25.4%
YTD Domestic Shipments    65,288         71,473   -8.7%
Inventory                             440,650      448,865    -1.8%
Shipments as % of Crop        37.4%        43.2%
Shipments as % of Supply     34.3%        39.4%

Shipments for the month of November 2017 and YTD are underwhelming yet packer’s do not seem daunted.  They point to a slow start to the harvest by 2-3 weeks and purposely conservative sales due to a smaller and less definitive crop.

Receipts through November 2017 were 614,565 inshell equivalent ton compared to 675,797 the prior year, or down 9.1%.   Last year’s final production was 686,000 ton indicating another 10,203 ton received in after November 2016.  However, due to this year’s lateness,  the crop may “catch up” a bit and many believe there is still an additional 10,000 to 20,000 ton still to come in.  The 2017 California walnut production was forecast at 650,000 ton so it appears that making this estimate is highly unlikely and the final crop receipts will still be close to the 9.1% that they are behind YTD.

Year to date supply for 2016 had carry in of 65,170 ton plus November 2016 YTD receipts of 675,797 ton equated to a total supply of 740,967 ton.   For the same period in 2017,  carry in of 55,976 ton plus November 2017 YTD receipts of 614,565 ton had total supply at 670,541 ton,  down 9.5%.

Shipments as a percentage of supply are 34.3% for 2017-2018 versus 39.4% for 2016-2017 or a roughly 5% decline.
–  YTD Export shipments of 164,603 ton are down 25.4% and YTD Domestic shipments of 65,288 are down 8.7%.  Total YTD shipments are down by a significant 21.3%.

Color Quality is excellent in spite of sweltering summer heat and a record number of over 100 degree days.   There is a tremendous amount of good quality light material but conversely a real shortage of combo color; a double edge sword.  The decline in the availability of combo color and a higher percentage of light color continues to put a tightening on the spread between these two items with good momentum upward on combo prices and a flattening of prices of light material.  Additionally, both light and combo pieces of all sizes are hard to come by and not expected to get any better as the year moves on.

date:  Dec 13, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on California Walnuts – NOVEMBER 2017 WALNUT MONTHLY MANAGEMENT REPORT
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Greek Currants Market Report

An update of the market and prospects for Greek Currants

Latest estimates of the 2017 crop, point to a total of 15,000 – 16,000mt, compared to more than 19,000mt, for the 2016 crop.  There was no carryover from the 2016 crop whereas carryover from 2015 into the 2016 crop was 4,000mt. So total supply at the time of harvest in September this year, was 15,000 – 16,000mt, compared to 23,000mt total, at the same time last year.

The dramatic reduction in supply, has led to an increase in offer prices, exacerbated by the fact that growers are reluctant sellers, as they expect higher prices, by holding out. There are also many traders or “Middle men” on the market, who are seeking to maximise their return.

There had been some speculation that some growers would look to sell quantities of their raw material, by the end of November, on the basis that by doing so, they would qualify for a state subsidy. The reality is that this does not seem to have been the case. Growers qualify for two subsidies, one paid by the Greek Government and one by the EU, the EU being the greater. It is also possible that some growers are also waiting for the new tax year before selling their raw material (the Greek tax year starts on 1st January each year).

Unlike other markets, we do not receive reliable statistical information from the Greek Currants market. There is no official crop estimate, no carry over information from crop to crop and no detailed information regarding export trends. So, we are reliant upon our ongoing dialogue with packers and our own observations during our regular visits.

Such dialogue leads to the conclusion that there will be some new offers of 2017 crop Currants, in the months ahead, but these are likely to be at elevated price levels.

A critical time period will be April, when we see the first indicators of the prospects for the 2018 crop, which will be harvested in August/September 2018. If early indicators are good, then the value of raw material would be likely to stabilise, however, any frost or negative developments during that period, may lead to further rises in the prices of any remaining raw material.  Either way, there is no prospect of a fall in offer prices, from present levels.

We feel it likely that the 2017 crop will sell out, well ahead of the arrival of 2018 crop. Therefore, even if the 2018 crop is of higher volume and good quality, it is unlikely that we will see any relief from the prevailing, higher offer prices, until Q1 2019, at the earliest. Any issues with the quality or quantity of the 2018 crop, may bring further untold pressure to the market.

In an attempt to address the issues within the market and protect its future, we drafted a letter to The Greek Minister of Agriculture, which was issues by our Trade Association.  We have offered to meet with the Minister, to discuss measures which would stimulate the Greek Currants market in the short, medium and long term. We are presently awaiting their reply.

We will keep you closely informed regarding offer prices and market developments, as the information becomes available.

date:  Dec 11, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Greek Currants Market Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Thailand Dehydrated Fruits

Pineapple
The current winter crop is still has a good level of supply and this situation should still last until the next coming summer crop (Apr-June 2018). The price last month has dropped down to a certain point where it’s not favourable to farmers and this has caused the price to bounce back slightly higher as per the government’s announcement to all canned packers to maintain the purchasing price for the long term sustainability of the pineapple farming industry.

The price is expected to maintain at this level and is expected not to further reduce. In other words, pineapple’s price should already passed their rock-bottom situation.

Papaya
The supply has significantly dropped down, despite being in the papaya’s peak season (Nov.-Jan.), this is due to the current and long continuous flood situation in south of Thailand during the last 2 months.

However, we notice that the price is currently not going up much as the demand for the canning is quite light. But we expect that the price may likely start to go up soon once the crop has passed by.

Ginger
The crop has been harvested and the price level, comparing to last year is slightly higher.

Mango
The level of supply during the whole year 2017 is somewhat about 20% less than year 2016 and the price is slightly higher than last year. The situation of short mango supply is also expected to remain until next year as the mango itself is perennial which it needs about 3 years to obtain the fruits. In other words, it’s difficult to expect the increase in supply during the next year.

date:  Dec 11, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Thailand Dehydrated Fruits
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Californian Walnuts / Greek Currants

Walnuts

The USDA forecast of 650,000 tons now appears to be way over the mark, with the harvest well underway and in some places getting close to completion. The revised expected yield based on information from packers would suggest approx 592,500 tons.
The shipment report for September was released by the walnut board last week. Substantially down – 24,206 tons compare to 50,288 last September. This is mostly down to the lateness of the crop. Walnut receipts were 102,498 as of September 30th compared to 228,318 tons in the previous September. The October report will be more informative, which will show a full months of shipping compared to the prior year.

 

Currants

Latest estimates suggest that the 2017 Greek Currants crop total 16,000mt, with no carry over from the 2016 crop.  2016 crop was estimated to total 19,000mt, plus a carryover of 4,000mt from the 2015 crop.  So total supply of Greek Currants this season, is around 7,000mt lower than the previous season, which has led to the sharp rise in raw material prices, in recent weeks. Most of the major growing regions, have reported reduced yield, including Messinia, Pyrgos/Amalias and Zante (- 40%), compared to last season, and the reduction in Aeghion (Vostizza), is estimated at 20%.


Some growers remain reluctant to sell as they believe that due to the reduced crop, prices will continue to rise, even though they are obliged to agree contracts to sell their currants by the end of November, in order to qualify for their subsidy.

In view of the reduction in supply, it presently looks certain that the 2017 crop will sell out far in advance of the next crop, in September 2018. Therefore, any reduction in raw material prices before the final quarter of 2018, appears very unlikely.

date:  Oct 23, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Californian Walnuts / Greek Currants
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

California Almonds – September Position Report

The Almond Board of California has released the September Almond Position Report with shipments of +190.5 million pounds compared  to last year of +201.5 million pounds for a decrease of 5.4%.

Shipments were expected to be close to last year’s record number, however, with the lateness of the harvest this year very few loads of pollinators were shipped out in September.

DOMESTIC SHIPMENTS 50.4 million lbs.                -13%

EXPORTS SHIPMENTS    140.1 million lbs.              -2.25% 

CARRY OUT: The Carry out from 2016 is 398.6 million pounds.

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:   +359 million pounds compared to 371 million pounds last year for a decrease of 3.3% percent.

CROP RECEIPTS: Now at 844 million pounds down 14.8% from last year 1.011 billion pounds.  The late harvest has contributed to the slowness in which almonds have been received.

HARVEST: The harvest continues up and down the state.  Nonpareils have all been received.  Pollinators are continuing to be received.  Quality is not as ideal as the past few years.  This season we are having higher levels of insect damage/serious damage.  These higher levels of damage are slowing down the pace of processing and packing. Most varieties are reporting a higher levels of doubles as well making it more difficult to produce Extra #1 and Supreme grades.  Color of Nonpareil is lighter than last year.  Sizes for Nonpareil are predominantly in the range of 23/25 to 27/30.

SEPTEMBER SALES: New Sales during the month of September were at +235 million pounds!!  Combining the carry out with the new crop, the industry is now at +41.5% sold.

OCTOBER: Our look for the October shipment will be very strong with industry experts predicting shipments similar to up 10% over last year!  Most packers are fully booked for October and many are full for November at this time.  If you have demand, please plan on 4 to 6 weeks for the earliest shipments to be made.

date:  Oct 12, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on California Almonds – September Position Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Hazelnuts & Almonds market update

HazelnutsThe Turkish Hazelnut market remains remarkably stable at 18.5 TL. Volumes arriving satisfy demand, farmers and stock holders are not willing to discount further having seen the TMO’s improving performance.
It would seem that at current levels all players (other than short sellers) seem happy.
This would seem a good time to look at your forward requirements.

Almonds

As growers complete their harvest, other tasks become an immediate focus. Critical post-harvest irrigation, soil amendment and fertiliser applications begin almost immediately after the harvesters leave the orchards. Older, lower producing orchards are being removed even as new plantings using potted trees are being planted, and lands are being prepared for planting with bare-root trees during the coming winter.
Market appears quite firm at the moment, now we are on the pick season and it will be unlikely that we will see lower prices in the near future.We have some good positions on natural almonds and processed almonds and would welcome your enquiries.

date:  Oct 04, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Hazelnuts & Almonds market update
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Chelmer Foods receives BRC Accreditation

Chelmer Foods are pleased to announce that we have passed our BRC Agents and Brokers audit on Friday 23.6.17

Well done to all the Technical Team and especially to our Technical Manager Buke Weaire for all the hard work in the run up and during the audit.

date:  Jun 26, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Chelmer Foods receives BRC Accreditation
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More
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