News

Pecan Market Update 2018

While we wait for the latest Pecan numbers (Cold Storage, Receipts, and Consumption) to be announced early next month, here are some observations:

• There is roughly the same saleable tonnage as last year

• Prices are currently down about 15% over last season’s high and about 8% over last season’s average price.

• The downward price trend is more to due to a lack of money then it is a lack of demand which has been off slightly over last year. All the major packers have refrained from getting into a bidding war over the inshell. It was a bidding war last season that precipitated a price spike and a subsequent price collapse when the shellers ran out of the cash needed to buy the remainder of the crop. It would be fair to say that most pecan producers lost or made very little money last season.

• The market today is under bought and under sold. The big shellers are telegraphing to the industry that the market is at a bottom. My observation from past seasons is that the Jan-March timeframe is traditionally the weakest period of the season. In the first calendar quarter, there are minimal carry charges accrued to the base price. I expect that the market bottom will be reached in the the next three months.

• Given the lower prices this year, demand should increase. Currently, prices are in a range of the prior three seasons from last year. Industry sales may be aided by the weakened US dollar which is at a four year low to the Euro.

SUMMARY

Look for the 2018 season market bottom in the next three months. Prices have dipped into a range that has recent historical support.

date:  Jan 29, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Pecan Market Update 2018
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

US Almond growers welcome a storm…

California has received a welcome cold weather storm yesterday and today.

The Lake Tahoe Area is expecting 1.5- 2 feet of snow. They are still below average for snow pack and rain fall this season, so this storm is a welcome sight! The Sacramento area will received close to 1 inch of rain.

We will keep you posted on any additional weather updates

date:  Jan 25, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on US Almond growers welcome a storm…
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Sesame Market moving

Prices of hulled sesame has risen by almost 5-6% this week

This is due to good demand from Europe, Russia, Iran & other NON EU Countries.

Simultaneously African prices also gained around USD 100/mt.

China has already stopped to buy for new contracts from Africa due to delay in delivery of previous contracts & switched to India for its current requirements.

There is also news of a Korean tender, one is expected by end of Jan (Around 5000 Mt) & one is by February (Around 5000 Mt)

It appears that USD 1760-1780/mt is a very supportive bottom level.

For premium quality hulled sesame we see very few chances it may break this bottom level for coming 3-4 months seeing the current local supply & African imports.

 

date:  Jan 25, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Sesame Market moving
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Blue Poppy Seed – Stable Market Conditions

Poppy market is stable and prices are more less the same as before the holidays.

We expect that this will remain like this until the end of February/beginning of March.

Around this time farmers will get their sowing seeds and this could give us a first idea on the following months after.

However considering the total (lower) volume this year and the months that still have to come until the new crop, I wouldn’t be surprised if the prices remain at somewhat higher levels.

date:  Jan 24, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Blue Poppy Seed – Stable Market Conditions
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Chinese Pumpkin Seed market

Because Chinese new year is coming soon the demand for Pumpkin seed has seen an increase, additionally some of exporters think the price is already low vs before, therefore they  have made some further purchases of raw material.

This has led to a materials market price increase about 150-180usd/t on shine skin.

Overseas, there has been a reported increase of some buying interest and enquiries, but little actual buying activity.

Chinese currency RMB & dollar rate have reduced, from 6.65 it has come down to 6.38, so there are many sellers which have adjusted there offers.

date:  Jan 24, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Chinese Pumpkin Seed market
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Cranberry Crop update

Mother Nature provided a significant supply correction with an estimated crop US crop of 8,260,000 bbls, down 880,000 bbls from the CMCs projection of 9,141,000 bbls. That is about a 10% drop. One handler thought this was the largest crop decrease since 1976! Every single growing area was level or down, both within the US and growing areas not covered by this order. Worldwide, the crop is estimated to be down 1,560,000 bbls.

When the CMC voted for an order in August, they had projected that a 15% order would reduce the US crop by 915,000 bbls. So poor growing conditions/weather did most of our work for us. Based on that information, the committee discussed the other items introduced in the Proposed Order by the USDA. The committee had recommended that every handler receive a 125,000 bbl exemption, so in other words the first 125,000 bbls of a handle is exempt. The USDA’s proposal is that handlers below 125,000 are exempt and those above are not exempt. This affects only 7-8 handlers out of the 60 total handlers and affects the smaller of these handlers disproportionately as they can’t spread the cost of disposal over as many barrels. There were many comments as to the fairness of the proposed changes. Take for example a 300,000 bbls handler. With the CMC proposal he would have had to dispose of 300,000 bbls – 125,000= 175,000 bbls x .15%=26,250 bbls disposed. Under the proposed USDA plan that same handler would have to dispose of 300,000 bbls x 15%=45,000 bbls. The difference is significant. If the proposed USDA plan is enacted it would take another 1,000,000 bbls off the market in addition to the 880,000 bbls that naturally came off the market.

Besides the 125,000 exemption, the other significant change made by the USDA was the addition of “Any handler who does not have carryover inventory at the end of the 2017-2018 year would also be exempt” and ” Further, only handlers who would have carryover inventory that is not sold or under contract and the end of the 2017-2018 fiscal year would be subject to the 15 percent restriction” to the order. There was much discussion on these provisions imploring the USDA to provide guidance on what is define what is “sold” and “under contract”. The industry needs a certain amount of “pipeline” that is in our projections to get the processors from one crop to the availability of the new crop, which allows the processing plants to run efficiently and continually. Do we have more than the necessary amount of carryover as an industry. Absolutely, hence the request for a marketing order. But to make handlers prove their sales or contracts to prove they are in balance without carryover seems like an exercise fraught with problems. The addition of this wordage was probably intended to have the handlers with the most inventory subject to the order, and has numerous problems in application.

In the end, the CMC could only review the Proposed Order and make recommendations. In consideration of the large amount of decrease in fruit provided due to growing conditions, the CMC recommended to the USDA that the Volume reduction be reduced from 15% to 5%. This amount is estimated to take another 320,000 bbls out of the supply.

The USDA representatives were engaged and listened intently to all of the presenters and commentary. It was by no means a negotiation or give and take. They suggested that everyone make these same comments to the Federal Register. The comment period is open until February 2, 2018

date:  Jan 24, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Cranberry Crop update
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Chilean Prune Update

The estimated carry over from last year’s crop will be app. 5.000 tons , especially for small industrial sizes.

–              Estimated sizes of the new crop:

For new crop we expect the principal volume in sizes 50-60  60/70  70/80.  Quantity of 40/50 and 30/40 very small.

–              Crop to date export (and vs last year)

The expectation is that the first lots for 2018 crop will be available for shipment during end of March/early April 2018

–              Domestic demand vs last year

Domestic demand will be higher than in 2017, but this will be not more than 5-6 % of the total demand.

Please find below a table from the INC magazine:

date:  Jan 18, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Chilean Prune Update
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

It’s a good time to buy Sunflower!

SUNFLOWER

Market – East Europe

The demand for export and the domestic use is slow in Bulgaria the last few weeks. Processors are fulfilling their older contracts but it’s hard to get new sales in the books.

Prices are at low levels and because the quantities availible are good, we don’t expect any big changes during the next weeks.

New processers and local traders offing without profits in order to get new customers bring big compertition. Raw sunflower seeds were traded last week at USD 330-340/mt. We see current market levels for hulled processed kernels today at EUR 580-600 ex works. Broken kernels are traded at EUR 490-510 ex works.

date:  Jan 17, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on It’s a good time to buy Sunflower!
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Pumpkin Market outlook for 2018

PUMPKIN

Market – China

December was not an active month for the Chinese pumpkin exporters. Most of the European buyers had covered their needs for 2017. The domestic Chinese market stays high. By the middle of January we see a growing interest again for spot material.

The combination of the favorable price tags of the material and the interests from the market to cover longer spreads puts some pressure (risks) on the table of the pumpkin exporters in China. Right now the availability is good and it’s easy for the processor to buy from a local raw material trader.

In the current market situation, there is no need for the processors to keep stocks. This seems stable and positive but is also a risk for the processors and the possibilities for price changes for the buyers in Europe.

Two areas in the market to note are:

1 ) Quality and availability driven increase. Right now we see the market increase on the higher quality kernels. For example the prices of the Shine Skin AA from the North West (Xibei Origin) are rising. The availability is not so big and the domestic use is high. Some big processors have slowly started taking some positions of the raw material from the North West which makes other (smaller) processors consider the same. For these specific quality kernels, we expect the market will not make a huge jump, but we expect it will keep increasing during the next months. How fast it will increase is important of topic no 2 like explained here below.

2) Speculation driven increase. These days the pumpkin market is more speculation driven as the available volumes are simple high (expect some high quality kernels like AAA grades and Xibei Origin Shine Skin like mentioned before). There is a huge immediate available volume North east origin Shine Skin and the stocks of GWS are also still good.

Right now processors are not eager to offer long period contracts (financial capacity wise) or they ask for a premium price to ensure their margins. If they don’t do this, it might be a gamble to see if they can make some profit.

Price reference

As mentioned before we still see a big difference between the origin prices and the local spot prices in Europe. Spot availability is high these days, due to the rising interest at the start of 2018. Right now we see the following market levels FOB China. GWS grade A USD 2.600-2.650 FOB and GWS grade AA at USD 2.900-2.950 FOB. Shine Skin A at USD 2.200-2.250 and Shine Skin AA at USD 2.900-2.950.

Advice and expectations.

Right now, the pumpkin market is at a stable low level, which gives the opportunity to buy good quality seeds at attractive prices. Especially the prices for nearby shipment are attractive. If you would like to take advantage of this favorable market, we advise to consider covering your needs until the summer period.

Please be aware that suddenly powerful processors can start collecting quantities of raw material for storage if they see growing interest for the next coming months. This can break open the market and makes the prices increase fast in a short time.

date:  Jan 17, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Pumpkin Market outlook for 2018
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

South African Vine Fruit; Thompson’s & Currants

The crop in Vredendal will be severely affected by drought as some producers are running out of water before harvest time.

This is really unfortunate as the crop would have been better than last year if water supply was not a limiting factor.

The currants crop may be down by 25-40% vs last year and the Thompsons in that region down by  20-30% vs last year.

Producers are starting to harvest and they are using the last available water to irrigate the vineyards producing the highest yields.

Final crop numbers will be available within the next 6 weeks.

date:  Jan 17, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on South African Vine Fruit; Thompson’s & Currants
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More
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