Author Archives Chris Wilding

California Walnut Acreage Report

California’s 2017 total walnut bearing acreage is estimated at 335,000 acres, up 6.3% from the 2016 figure of 315,000 acres. The 2017 total walnut acreage is estimated at 400,000 acres, up 10% from 2015. This includes 65,000 acreas of non-bearing acres. With the 2017 crop recipts estimated at 627,798 short tons, we have a total yield per acre of 1.87 short tons per acre. This is down 12.2% from the 2016 yield per acre of 2.13 tons per acre.

Chandler continues leading with 121,524 bearing acres representing 36% of the total bearing acreage. Chandler represents 59%, however, of the non-bearing acres. The pace of new plantings in 2017 slowed to 2,050 acres down 62% from the prior year when 5,461 acres were planted and off considerable from the recent peak planting year of 2013 when 11,398 acres were planted.

Approximately 7,000 acres were removed in 2017. Some acreas were harvested before the trees were removed. Most of the acreage is in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys in the northern parts of the state.

date:  May 24, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on California Walnut Acreage Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Update on Greek Currants

Following the record low 2017 Greek Currants crop, estimated at just 15,000mt, there will be no unsold carry over, by the time 2018 crop is harvested, during Late August/Early September. The fact that there will be no carry over will make packers more reluctant to offer new crop fruit before harvest, on the basis that they will not have the “Insurance” of any 2017 crop, should there be any issues with the development or drying of the 2018 crop. Packers reluctance to offer will be heightened by the fact that grower expectation will be for a continuation of the elevated price levels.

Early indicators suggest that the development of the 2018 Greek Crop is one to two weeks ahead of schedule, with harvest expected to commence during mid August.

Over the past five years, the average crop size has been in the region of 20,000mt. The record low crop of 2017, was triggered by a number of factors. For the years preceding the 2017, there had been huge dissatisfaction amongst growers, regarding the prices offered for their raw material, which they maintain was scarcely adequate to cover their costs. This has led to reduced acreage of vines, as growers opted to remove them and in most cases, to plant Olive trees in their place, maintenance of which involves a far lower labour cost. During the last two seasons, total crop sizes have also been affected by weather conditions during drying. Some growers opting to sell their product to the Greek wineries. The fact that the acreage is now reduced, is the most critical factor in determining the maximum realistic size of the 2018 crop. Due to the dramatic rise in raw material prices, following the short 2017 crop, it is very likely that the majority of growers will opt the sell their product dried as Currants, rather than as fresh product. However, in view of the reduced acreage, even with optimum weather conditions up to and including the critical drying period, it may be unrealistic to expect that the 2018 crop will reach more than 18,000mt.

It is highly unlikely that we will see any easing of prices during the rest of 2018, even if the crop is higher in volume than that of the 2017 crop, as there is certain to be significant interest in Currants for shipment immediately after the harvest. The situation has not been helped by the fact that the small South African crop of Currants, was 50% lower than usual, due to drought conditions, in the main growing region.

Whilst we do not yet have any confirmed new crop offers as discussed above, we estimate that the opening price level for 2108 crop Greek Currants will be in the region of  £2650 per mt, delivered, for Provincial and £2725 for Vostizza., with a premium for small berry sizes.  This assumes a £/€ rate of 1.14, a crop which totals 18,000mt and no issues with crop development or drying.

We anticipate strong early demand for Currants from the 2018 crop, which we believe will be sufficient to mean that the prices indicated above, are sustainable until at least Q1 2019. Beyond that, future direction will be determined by the exact quantity and quality of the crop and reaction of principal export markets, to the prevailing price levels. It is unlikely, but not impossible that a combination of a crop at the higher end of expectation, combined with reduced export demand, could trigger a fall in prices from Q2 2019.

We have written to the Greek Ministry of Agriculture, to encourage measures to be taken, in support of the Greek Currants industry, including incentives to encourage increased production, long term and proposing a meeting to discuss such measures. We await their reply.

date:  May 24, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Update on Greek Currants
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Latest developments of Turkish 2018 vine fruit crop

According to reports from different regions, the expectation for new crop will be roughly 10% less in volume than 2017 crop season which will equate to, more or less, 270.00 – 280.000 tons, some regions are better than last year, some regions are worse than last year. In general Alaşehir and Sarigol region is worse than last season and till today we have seen local hail damage in Saruhanli region.

When we look 2017 crop bourse registrations, it is likely there will not be a carry over from 2017 crop season, or very little, to 2018 crop season, which means packers will start 2018 crop season as it is.

As you follow from the general market, USA Thompson prices have been very high, some part of the demands for Thomson’s has carried over to Turkey. At the beginning of the crop season, Thompson prices were 4,5 tl levels but we have seen them lately as high as 8,5 tl levels. Due to good weather conditions during 2017 crop harvest, there was not the necessary available dark fruit within the market and the colour gap between types are very close to each other, due to that reason limited dark coloured fruit was firm within the market. We expect more or less 7-8 % of Thompson was harvested during 2017 crop season but we expect approx 15% of Thompson for 2018 crop season.

When we compare last two years crop with 2018 crop, 2018 crop continues more or less 10-15 days earlier than previous years. Authorities have been informing farmers to be careful to follow berries developments to apply the right pesticides on time, if farmers miss any of the pesticide applying time frame, new diseases may occur within the vineyards, like in 2014 season, when 2014 crop season was very good crop season but during harvest there was seen a variance of colours and quality, because farmers missed last pesticide application for black mould.

Additionally, there will be a president and member of parliament election in Turkey on 24th June 2018. Manisa region is an important area for government and they have to give assurances to farmers in Manisa region. At the beginning of 2017 crop season, Government interfered with the raw material prices through TMO and Tarim Credit Cooperative, which meant they bought more or less 10.000 tons of product and packers saw first hand the affect in the market, raw material prices increased to 4,3-4,4 tl levels where they were 3,7 – 3,8 tl levels. We expect that government will interfere with raw material prices at the beginning of 2018 crop season under promises of government during election. If government promise something, they have to respect this, otherwise they may loose votes during local election in March 2019.

As you know new crop prices always from how old crop prices finish, if we see raw material price increase till end August 2018, we can say TMO and Tariş have to announce their prices up to market conditions, which are expected 6,5 – 7,0 tl levels (1450 – 1550 usd/mtone, with usd/tl 4,57). If TMO and Tariş are in the market and purchase raw material at these levels, the next question will be, how much quantity will they buy?

The biggest points are how currencies will continue and how other origins will affect world markets, such as the USA. According to Economics, they expect Turkish Lira will be strong against USD if Erdogan wins and get support from Parliament.

As a summary of our view, we can say that importers should be patient and follow market conditions, if we get 270-280.000 tons of raw material during 2018 crop season, there will be enough product in market for export. Perhaps we can expect to see a similar scenario to 2015 crop season, Tariş announced raw material prices at 5,50 – 6,00 tl levels but then market prices decreased after a short time of period, potentially we may see a similar scenario happen again.

 

date:  May 23, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Latest developments of Turkish 2018 vine fruit crop
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Apricots hail damage

There has been major hail damage to the apricot crop over the past few days. The overall crop will be assessed in the next two weeks, but initial thoughts are of a similar size crop as last year with a lot of blemishes like last year. Heavily damaged fruit will again be left in the orchards and not harvested.

Hail has been seen as large as the size of golf balls…

   

date:  May 21, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Apricots hail damage
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)

We are writing to inform you about an upcoming change in the law. On 25th May, 2018, a new European Union (EU) Data Protection law, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), comes into effect. The GDPR will allow companies and individuals in the EU to have more control over how their data is used, and will place certain obligations on businesses that process information of those individuals.

You have received this email because you are on our promotional & market report database. We would like to assure you that we never have, and never will, share your private data with any third parties. It is only ever used to inform you of our latest news and updates as required. 

However, should you wish to unsubscribe from our promotional database, please kindly let us know.

If you choose not to unsubscribe on, or before 25th May – you acknowledge our updated Privacy Policy, and agree to the rest of the updated Privacy Policy. 

date:  May 14, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

WALNUT MARKET AND CROP UPDATE- April 2018

WALNUT MARKET AND CROP UPDATE- April 2018

 The April 2018  shipments versus the April 2017  shipments on an inshell equivalent were down  approx. 1% 41,595  tons versus 42,048 last year.  

The FINAL receipts reported on Dec. 31st, 2017  for the Walnut crop are at 627,798 tons.

The kernel market continues to decrease each week on 20’s, 40’s and 80’s. The pieces market is starting to open up with more availability.

 Markets to Watch: 

Iran / Dubai/ Turkey-  The political situation in Iran has caused their currency to drop 40% in the past 24 hours.   This could have a big effect on shipments into Turkey and Dubai who sell in that market.

China –  There have been some rumblings about some additional arrests coming out of China for smuggling. The Chinese government has continued to crack down on the gray channels and it is making these routes very unpredictable.

Chile:  The Chilean Walnut packers have opened up their pricing on inshell Chandler, Serr’s and Kernels, all sizes.   Both Hand Cracked and Machine Cracked halves are available.   Prices have continued to ease on Inshell and Kernels from Chile as demand seems to be slow to get going.    If you have a specific inquiry or need an update on CHILE, please ask us.   We have offers on ALL items.  

2018 California Crop:  Industry experts are stating the Tulare crop and Serr’s look really good this year, but the Howard and Vina will be down a little compared to last year.  It is too early to determine the Chandler crop.  Some are expecting a crop of 720,000 tons , with the low being 680,000 tons and the high side being 740,000 tons.

date:  May 11, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on WALNUT MARKET AND CROP UPDATE- April 2018
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

The California Subjective Crop Estimate for 2018 is estimated at 2.3 Billion Pounds.

Forecasted production is 1.3 percent above last year’s production of 2.27 billion pounds. Forecasted bearing acreage for 2018 is 1,070,000. Forecasted yield is 2,150 pounds per acre, down 5.3 percent from the 2017 yield of 2,270 pounds per acre. The subjective production forecast is based on a telephone survey conducted from April 18 to May 4 from a sample of almond growers.

The 2018 California almond bloom began a few days earlier than normal. The bloom period was extended, due to cold temperatures, and lasted a few weeks. Frosts during bloom hit orchards hard, especially on the east side of the valley. Younger trees were impacted more severely than older trees. Weather during the spring was variable, leading many growers to be unsure about their 2018 crop. As temperatures warmed up in May, nuts were sizing well.

On Friday the California Almond Board will announce the April Shipment Report as well.

date:  May 10, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on The California Subjective Crop Estimate for 2018 is estimated at 2.3 Billion Pounds.
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Banana Chips Market Report

Report received from one of our partners in the Philippines…

Green banana supply has improved in the last 10 days. But because of the backlogs of factory, I don’t think any factory will attempt to lower their buying until they have caught up with their backlogs. I guess it will take a month or so to catch up with everybody’s backlog. Historically March and April are periods of short supply not because of any fundamental factor like typhoon or drought or any natural causes, but traditionally this is rice harvesting, milling and planting season. Farmers do not cut bananas during these periods; they are concentrated in rice. Based on the last 2 years data, price of banana softens a bit by end July and increases by September until late October. This is the 2nd season of rice activity in a year. Thereafter until February of next year, banana supply is normal. But between November to January prices has always been higher, if not firmed, due to China’s buying; demand from China few months before their Spring Festival is too much for supply to support.

Coconut oil right now is unusual.  It continues its downtrend since mid-last year. The series of increases in the price of green banana this March and April 2018 were actually cushioned by downtrend in price of our refined oil, not equally, but at least has neutralised a percentage in the increase in banana price. Insiders think that it may all be the  weakness of the foreign market and is temporary. Domestically I don’t think there is a fundamental factor that may be causing oversupply.

Freight to Europe has been fairly steady in the last year.

date:  May 10, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Banana Chips Market Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Dehydrates from Thailand… report received from our supplier partner

:- Pineapple:- main crop of pineapple has already finish. Raw material stable at low price and no shortage of pineapple and pineapple core for this year season. Some farmers decided not to grow second crop of Pineapple for May – June crop. This may push the raw material price to increase a little. However, we expect price should be stable until new season in October.

:- Papaya for colour added and Papaya natural, season is ended, our production manage to keep raw material for our demand. Expect no shortage for these papaya raw material this year. New season of Papaya natural red will be in October.

:- Mango, season is now and will last until early June. Raw material price is a little lower price compared to year 2017 with good crop.

For special Mango products (Premium Mango (juicy) and Mango no cane sugar added), please check your requirement and make advance booking with shipping period in order us to reserve raw material for our customers for these two special quality.

:- Coconut, raw material remain stable without shortage at this period.

:- Jackfruit, season is nearly finish. We manage to reserve raw material based on customer requirement from last year.

:- Ginger, our raw material in stock should be meet customer demand till new season start. Some shortage may be seen before new season in August if demand higher than our estimation.

:- Guava, raw material will be every 3-4 months. Shortage may be seen for some period.

:- Passion fruit, there will be two crop. First crop will be start from February and last till April and second season will be during June-early August.

:- Cantaloupe, Pomelo skin, Water melon, Winter melon, raw material available and price are stable.

 

Other factors which influence the pricing

:- Minimum wage cost in Thailand increase by 8.5% (from 300 THB/day to 325 THB/day) in our factory area and already affect in 1st April. This will be direct effect to our production cost as many process still need to be operated manually.

:- Energy price is now in uptrend. We will have to see its effect ie. production cost, transportation cost, freight cost, etc.

:- US Dollar still weak compare to Thai Baht and other major currencies.

date:  May 03, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Dehydrates from Thailand… report received from our supplier partner
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Development on new 2018 Turkish vine fruit crop

Chelmer Foods visited Turkey last week, please see the below update:

Development of New Crop

It’s undeniable that the progress of new crop is ahead compared to last year, the general feeling is it’s somewhere between 10 to 14 days ahead. Weather conditions throughout the risky frost period of March to April have been almost perfect, with a few localised frosts and rainfall not affecting the development in any significant quantity. One concern that a number of parties we speak to in Turkey have is the overall bud count on the vines compared to last year, with regional differences showing either an almost identical number (possibly even slightly up) compared to last year whilst some regions are drastically down. There is the feeling that it’s still slightly too early to tell how big the new crop is going to be and in the next two weeks we should see a much more clearly defined picture. 

If we were going to put an estimated figure out there for the coming crop then we would suggest that the coming crop should be min 270,000mt and max 320,000mt. Turkish packers will always tell you that you don’t get a good crop follow a good but potentially there will be three good years on the trot. This can be put down to changing weather patterns globally, improved farming techniques amongst the larger growers and new vines yielding fruit for the first time. This could push the overall expectation of what a good crop in Turkey looks like upwards towards the 350,000mt level, how realistic this talk is remains to be seen in the coming years.

Increase in Thompson Production to Reduce Sultana Availability

One of the largest factors that is likely to affect pricing going forward is the worldwide demand for Thompson Raisins as Californian crop faces continued reduced crop size compared to the average over the last 5 years. If we say that during 2017 crop there was around 20,000 to 25,000mt dried as raisins due to the cost differential between Sultanas & Raisins in Turkey in terms of raw material price from farmers into the packers (Sultanas 5.3 TL/kg & Raisins 9 TL/KG) we would expect more and more farmers to make that switch this year. The number being banded around by the industry is that the tonnage dried this coming crop may, with good weather conditions during the harvest (Thompsons take longer to dry than Sultanas), increase to somewhere between 50,000 to 60,000mt, this therefore would put pressure on the overall availability of sultanas and in theory close the gap in terms of raw material cost. Both farmers and packers are both well informed on worldwide market prices so with both Chile & South Africa now sold out of Thompsons they will be eyeing up a price increase.

TMO & Election Influence

Last week the government announced that on the 24th June 2018 there will be presidential and parliamentary elections in a bold move to seize the momentum and gain a larger ruling majority in parliament. At this moment it’s highly likely that the existing president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will easily win and this is expected to bring some stability to the country. The reason the election may have some influence on the pricing of fruit forward is to do with the use of the TMO (Turkish Monopolies Organisation) to stabilise and increase the prices paid to farmers for material, something they did with a relative amount of success for 2017 crop. By using the TMO to do this the government would have to make some sort of pledge regarding the raw material price long before the actual harvest of the crop so it’s fraught with risk and at this stage completely hypothetical, although in Turkey there’s often no smoke without fire. Why the government may be prepared to take such a huge risk is because they see the areas of Manisa and Izmir as key areas for them to win, something they haven’t done in recent elections, so they are playing to the farmers need & desire for higher pricing.

Pricing Forward 

Whilst there are some speculators in the market regarding new crop prices these are only coming from packers that are notorious for trying to buy business and subsequently have been withdrawn as the market firmed a little. As yet it’s too early to say with absolute definition where the prices will be for the coming crop. You have to look at the overall worldwide demand to see that existing price levels from Turkey are extremely competitive when comparing to USA Raisins around $4000mt (including 2.4% duty) & Greek Currants around €2800mt, so if we look forward the price is poised to potentially go upwards to get closer to other vine fruit prices but a decent sized crop could force prices down. It’s a 50/50 call that will play out in the coming months.

In the short term before new crop we will not see any significant reduction as available raw material has almost exhausted itself from farmers into packers, although that’s not to say packers aren’t sitting on unsold quantities. For specific enquiries as always let us know and we’ll offer our best advice on whether the timing is right to book or to wait that little bit longer.

date:  Apr 27, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Development on new 2018 Turkish vine fruit crop
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More
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