Green banana deliveries has been less than half of the volume some packers have expected, the availability of bananas, have again, started to become short. The reasons behind the shortage is because of heavy rainfall in the farm areas and many farmers have held out harvesting their bananas to prevent prices from falling further. Green banana prices may have already found the bottom levels.
We can empathise with the farmers since they live mostly hand to mouth on a daily basis to feed their families. It is good business practice that there should be a reason and / or motivation for the farmers to go on with their banana cultivation, and not to cut down their planted bananas in favour of other fruits or crops due to falling banana prices.
Volatilities can spark “any day between now to August / September time” which is a nearby now.
Please note that those (Sept up to early 2019) are usually China peak season months leading to Chinese New Year (early 2019) wherein China purchases in full force. This is the traditional yearly peak season sales.
Additionally, the typhoon season months for the Philippines are July to September. These are big risks for volatility since one typhoon can game change the farm situation, as we have seen before in banana chip prices. It can be an impetus for the fresh fruit traders from Luzon to come back aggressively to buy bananas in the farms if their own crops in Luzon are devastated again by typhoons.
It would be a good time for you to lock in now, for August / September orders, while prices remain competative.