- TARIS FIG – 2015 AUGUST REPORT << CLICK HERE for the PDF report on the latest developments on the Fig Crop
For PDF report please Click Here >>SunOpta Sunflower Crop Report August 2015 <<
I would like to share the latest developments with you in the Sultanas and Raisins Market.
Their estimation is lower by more than %40. The reason of such shortage is the hail and frost damages happened on various days. At the same time, following a big crop like 2014’s the productivity of the vineyards are also poorer.
If we question the accuracy of 2014 crops estimation, we believe the crop wasn’t as big as 328 thousand tons.
Committee did a good job at that time but the reason we didn’t agree was, during the time frame between their deceleration till the harvest (due to the extreme temperatures) the brix content (sugar) of the grapes didn’t improve as intended.
This resulted with a lower yield on drying. ( less sugar more water on grapes so more evoparation on drying). On our estimations, we declared 300-310 thousand tons.
As we are at the end of the season now, we see we were accurate with our estimation.
Last year end of the crop, the prices were too low and growers didn’t want to sell. They were carrying about 30-40 thousand tons of fruit which was yet unregistered since it was not traded yet. This volume is registered into 2014 crops figures.
Whereas in 2015 crop we believe there is again going to be a beginning inventory of around 40.000 tons but this time it is registered since it is on the hands of the growers, merchants and exporters.
Fort he coming crop, it is really difficult to estimate. There is no homogeneity at the vineyards. We respect the delegation but we are more pessimistic. We believe crop is going to be somewhere between 170-180 thousand tons
Beginning of the season will be really difficult. Growers will start with very high price expectation. We may see overvalued prices at some stages. But we don’t expect to see prices to decrease too much later on. As the crop is really short.
Berries will be big, so the up charges for mediums or smalls will also be very large.
Hopefully no additional damages from weather conditions because we have had more than enough already.
Since last week, rain is coming to the region. Coming days are expected again. Big risk for diseases and hail. We see some growers already started to harvest their product to avoid diseases.
Although the sugar content is good enough at grapes (Considering the time), such risks on weather, so early harvesting is preventing sugar content from further improving.
One point we will need to focus will be the fresh grape export. Due to the economical problems at Russia, we may see a significant slow down exports of fresh grapes. These fresh ones might then be returned to dried.
But we don’t see this volume being more then 10-15 thousand tons of dried equivalent.
Please don’t hesitate to contact us for any further.
Click here >>July 2015 Almonds Shipment report<< For the comprehensive report in PDF viewing
The Almond Board of California has released the July Almond Position Report with shipments of + 122.5 million pounds compared to +132.5 million pounds last year for a decrease of 7.5% percent.
The shipments were expected to be lower in July.
YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS: 1.812 billion pounds compared to 1.937 pounds last year for a decrease of 6.4 percent.
CROP: RECEIPTS: 1.867 billion pounds versus 2.009 billion lbs for a decrease of 7%.
CURRENCY: The 1 Euro is at $ 1.10 .
HARVEST: The harvest is underway on the nonpareil crop in the south, central, and northern areas of the state. Initial observations are the nonpareil crop is much lighter than last year in the South and Central parts of the valley. Sizes are smaller, lacking weight, very dry kernels,.
PRICES: Over the past 4 weeks prices seen a small decline and now have started rebounding based on the lighter than expected new crop.
Regarding the new Crop 2015, from what it seems up to now, the total quantity will be around 10-15% lower in comparison to Crop 2014 around 18-20.000 tons but the quality is expected to be much better in comparison to the last season’s.
The limited rainfall of the last days have not affected the quality or the quantity.
The harvest of the crop will start at around on 20th of August.
The farmers are unhappy with the continuous downward trend of the price of the raw material and many of them are thinking not to dry their currants if this will continue and give the fresh currants for wine .
The farmers are asking higher price for the new season.
Our estimation is that the starting prices the new Crop 2015, due to that there will be enough carry over of Crop 2014, will be around 1.350 Euros p.m.t , F.O.B Piraeus but we estimate that there will be an upward trend later. Also due to the curry over packers and Unions offer currants Crop 2014 up to the end of 2015 or even later.
Report received from Belussis Currants
Pecan market is steady, most buyers are covered through new crop.
New crop progressing well with no adverse weather reported to date.
Current crop pieces are extremely short, and some packers are now forced to washout contracts or manufacture pieces from halves.
We would like to share with you the information of new crops 2015:
Inner Mongolia region: Planting area increased by 30%. Due to low temperature in sprout and drought in bearing fruit, the yield is decreased. Total output will keep the same as last year.
Xinjiang region: Planting area increased by 100%. The yield keeps the same. So the total output will increase by about 100% than last year.
Inner Mongolia region: The planting area is very few in this region.
Xinjiang region: Planting area increased by 100%. The yield increased a little. So the total output will increase by 100% than last year.
The planting area and total output will keep the same as last year.
The price for pumpkin in last year keeps high level and the expectation of farmer for new crops is still high. It is estimated the price at the beginning is still keep high level and as more crops come into market, the price may be going down to some extent.
Exports for July were 2,204 tons compared to 3,835 tons last year.
Total 2014 crop exports were 50,782 tons compared to 111,577 tons the previous year.
Average price of 2014 crop exports of whole apricots was $6,210 FOB compared to $3,265 the previous year
Average price of 2014 crop exports of diced apricots was $4,990 FOB compared to $2,592 the previous year
Exports in July were in accordance with our expectations. Final figures for the 2014 crop year were as follows (est.)
2014 Crop 15,000 tons
2013 Carryover 42,000 tons
Total supply 57,000 tons
Exports 50,782 tons
Domestic sales 5,000 tons
Carryover 1,218 tons
2015 crop 80,000 tons
New crop is starting to arrive in the market, there is strong demand to fill empty pipelines. Quality is excellent, mainly large sizes. Opening prices for sulphured raw material fruit is in line with expectations at around Tl 10 per Kg and seems to be holding steady for the time being, packers are actively buying. Prices for organic having dipped last month have now started to increase as it transpires many growers did not keep up their organic certification over the past year due to the crop failure.
We predict very strong August and September export numbers based on our heaviest season opening order book of all time, as buyers had been running positions as tight as possible. If we are right we may see prices firm in the fall as we get into the peak season. Most buyers are covering the first quarter or first half of the season only at this time. Apricot prices have come back in line with other tree fruits (prunes, figs, pears etc), and it should not be forgotten that though far better than last year, we do have a short crop again this year and no carry over. Total availability this year is a fraction over 80,000 tons, compared with over 160,000 tons in both 2012 and 2013 crop years, and 57,000 tons in 2014.
Russia is returning to the market this year, as the Tajic/Uzbek crops have been severely reduced by frost.
The Turkish Lira continues to look weak on domestic political and security issues, and is currently trading at Tl 2.68/$1.
Please contact us for any further information or specific quotes.
Click Here >>The Balsu Weekly Market Report (Week _49_August_2015)<<
Above you will find Balsu Weekly market report…