Monthly Archives September 2015

Seeds Market Update October 2015

Pumpkin

The  new crop harvest in China will just about be finished in mid October this year. Overall  it is thought that the  total crop is about 30 pct larger than  last year but we must remember that last year’s crop was the worst for  several years.055

GWS is about  similar in size to last year’s crop  but the quality is thought to be  better due to  kinder harvest conditions in September.

Shine skin tonnage is up  but the general feeling is that the crop is  OK but not as huge as we were thinking it may be back  earlier in the Summer.

Demand is increasing  domestically  in China for the national holiday from  1 st to 7 th October  2015 and also  demand is expected to be  strong up until the New Year holiday  that starts on the 8 th February 2016 next year.

Would suggest  taking cover up to  February/March 2016 to see  yourself through the  busy domestic  period in China.

 

Sunflower

Bakery Grade

The harvest is nearly completed for the  oil seeds in Bulgaria. The overall size of the crop is good and the quality is fair , maybe a little smaller kernel size thaseed1n last year due to the  very hot Summer  Bulgaria had this year.

Demand is very strong for  the new crop  at the moment and most sellers  are booked up until  December 2015 /January 2016 shipment. We may see a weakening in the market after Xmas when  buyers worldwide would  have  had their  first few shipments and demand may slacken a little  putting pressure on  growers and processors to be  more competitive. Would advise  to cover up to January/ February 2016

Confectionery  Grade

The confectionery crop in China is down from last  year’s  big crop  due to  farmers  planting  more  pumpkin  but overall the crop is OK and prices are steady.

USA origin is looking  good but still considerably more expensive than Chinese origin. Argentina is waiting a while before  offering  for their new crop next Spring.

Overall  prices from China look attractive.

 

Sesame

India has enjoyed a good Monsoon as reported earlier in the Summer and the new crop is  about 4 weeks away from being harvested and the overall size is looking good.

This coupled with less demand  from some traditionally  large  buyers such as Greece and China  at the  moment  means that  growers / processors are keen to secure  business and  prices have eased from the highs of last Autumn and earlier this year.

Would suggest taking cover into  2016 at current levels.

 

Linseedslinseed

Prices remain historically very attractive  both for brown and golden linseeds – good crops from Russia, Kazakhstan and Moldavia this Summer mean that prices have already come down and we feel any further significant  price reduction is unlikely.

 

Hulled Millet seeds

The crop in the  Mid West of  America ,Dakota and Colorado, is looking very good this year – new crop will  be shipped in late October.

 

Poppy seeds

The market is  rather quiet at the moment  but demand is expected to pick up  for the traditional  Xmas trade in Europe as usual  very soon.

There are no  shortages in supply and the Czech  new crop plantings were about 20 pct  higher than for 2014 but overall the crop is similar to last year’s due to  dry conditions  during the Summer.

Overall we feel prices are stable and  likely to   move  up and down about Euros 50  pmt  this season.

 

Hoping the  above overview is of some use and if any firm offers etc are required please do not  hesitate to contact us.

date:  Sep 29, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Seeds Market Update October 2015
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

SUNFLOWER MARKET UPDATE

Bulgaria

The summer weather is leaving the country and the autumn is slowly starting with temperature around 15 degrees in Sofia area. Farmers are currently finishing the last part of the harvest, before the rainfall really starts to increase.

 

September was a very busy month for the Bulgarian farmers and packers. In the first week of September started the first availability of the new harvest and all packers where fully booked this first period. Still now all loading schedules are very tight and new contracts for prompt loading are as good as impossible. Most factories are booked for October and some of them are even sold-out till the end of the year already. Because of this big demand in the market, the prices are getting more under pressure. We saw the price increase the last two weeks by almost +/- Euro 20 – Euro 25. The raw material prices from the farmers are currently on the level of 348-373 EUR / mt. We do expect , after the initial craziness has passed that levels will come down again after Christmas  to between Euro 650 and Euro 700. Due to interesting offers from Russia and Ukraine.

 

We believe that the market will stay uncertain and busy by the end of the year. Our advise is to cover your needs on time.

date:  Sep 28, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on SUNFLOWER MARKET UPDATE
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Pumpkin Market Update

PUMPKIN MARKET

 

China

Most pumpkin seeds have been harvested and famers expect to finish their field work by the middle of October. Its seems that the GWS crop is not much bigger than l055ast year, but the availability and quality is good. The shine shin crop seems to be bigger compared to last year, but not the volume as speculated by the end of 2014 crop. We can say that the crop is not that ‘huge’ as we where thinking. We expect that there will be a bigger price difference between these two grades, later in this year.

 

The last two weeks we saw a small price rise in both grades because processors are very busy with fulfilling their orders before the national holiday (1 -7 October). In general we expect price will rise when we get near by the end of the year, simply because the crop is not that big as processors and traders expected.

date:  Sep 28, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Pumpkin Market Update
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Ozgur Tarim Turkish Vine Fruit Update…

As you know since more than a week season started. I had already informed you about the crop size expectations in different regions.

Although it is proven that the crop is significantly short, the prices are decreasing.  On this report I will try to interpret the reason of the decrease.

This year before end of April, when the most serious frost incident happened, the prices were too low. Exporters were offering down to 1500 USD/ton levels. These were historically low levels and such low prices were unnecessarily cheap.

So the importers have used this opportunity and made huge amounts of contracts also for later terms of shipments. When the March period passed, most exporters thought the probability of frost was so low and made more contracts and didn’t cover the reason was the decreasing prices.

Then at a very late time, at end of April we had frost. Historically from what weOzgur_Logo could find, only once , 30 years ago it frosted on May, it was regional. However it’s damage on those areas was huge but frosts after march were so rare.

Some part of these contracts were for shipment terms even after the start new season. Some of the exporters covered these contracts but most of them uncovered.

So when the season started, the importers weren’t accepting new prices easily. They were trying to collect previously made contracts as fast as they could. Until the finishing of these contracts they aren’t really interested at new prices.

Similarly, the exporters, while most of them having short positions, seeing the low new demand from the importers and increasing prices, they weren’t rushing to buy raw material, which later on (since last Thursday) returned the trend of raw material prices to decrease.

Growers, when they saw the prices turned to a decreasing trend, they panicked,  remembered their memories of 2 years ago when the raw material prices increasing to 5,2 liras and then decreasing down to 3 liras. So with this panic they increased their supply in the market and which this helped prices further decrease.

But for 2 years ago, one point we should keep in mind is that California had a huge crop and a carry over. They were trying to decrease their stocks and were a lot cheaper then Turkey. They were asking  around 2200 USD while Turkey came upto 2800-2900 usd / ton. (the lira price of raw material was 5,2 liras but the currency (USD/TRY) on those days were around 2,0 but today the lira price of raw material is 5,7 lira/kg but the currency (USD/lira) is around 3,00.

From another point, As I explained on my previous reports, this year the damage on the vineyards in the region where is supplying for vine industry is huge. So these companies changed their demand to Alaşehir and Sarıgöl regions. Normally beginning of the harvest, Raki industry was buying huge amounts in this region. But this year as Vine industry is also there, Raki industry is not in a hurry. Because Raki industry can use both fresh grapes and dried, however Vine industry can only use fresh. Therefore as a natural fact Vine industry was in any case going to be more aggressive so the Raki industry avoided competition. Stocks of Raki is completely empty they buy as much as enough for their needs.

Vine industry is not buying as much as Raki does, Raki will probably be buying most of it from dried sultanas, but for the moment as their demand is also missing in the market this fact is also helping decrease in prices. So we see more drying in those regions. However as Raki is buying less in Fresh they will buy more in dried.

All in all, there is a huge demand to come, but it is not coming yet. This panicked the growers and made them sell faster.

However we now see they are less selling and starting a resistance. Nothing can decrease or increase forever. This decrease will have a turning point and all buyers are looking to catch the bottom level. This is not possible unless by chance,  when the trend returns, we expect a panic this time from the buyers and at that time the supply of raw material will be very scarce as the harvest will have finished.

As Özgür, we buy in any market, we don’t have the attitude to refuse our growers when they want to sell. .But we believe the scenario will be the complete opposite then the demand returns back.

date:  Sep 08, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Ozgur Tarim Turkish Vine Fruit Update…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Dried Apricots Update…

Apricot Update 7.9.15015

Exports in the first month of the season were 6,117 tons, a 36% increase on last years 4,504 for the same period.

Strong numbers particularly as the crop was late and virtually nothing was shipped in the first week of August. We expect September to be higher.

The harvest is complete. Quality deteriorated as the harvest progressed, with most lots now arriving without farmers having carried out any size grading or defect selection. The majority of the crop is large fruits due to the reduced yields following the frosts in April. There is virtually no difference in price between size 2 3 4 and 5.

Prices for sulphured apricots has remained steady at Tl 10/Kg for the past 5 weeks, with any variation in export prices coming from the exchange rate. The Lira is volatile due to political uncertainty ahead of the re run of the general election scheduled for 1st  November.

Organic prices have been increasing as supply is clearly tighter than expected, the premium for organic is now approaching 60%

The current market for conventional looks like it is priced at the right level to sell the 80,000 tons available over the next 11 months.
Dogancan Agrimax

date:  Sep 08, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Dried Apricots Update…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

California Walnut crop estimate and thoughts…

The walnut crop estimate for 2015.

A bit of a surprise, the crop is estimated at 575.000 short tons (inshell).  This would be 5.000 short tons over last year’s crop and hence represents only a 1% projected increase in production.

Why is this a bit of a surprise?  Most industry members in California seemed to expect a crop of 600.000 short tons or more.   Some spoke of large bunches of walnuts on trees.  There was concern also over the actual size of the nuts.  Well, this is what the estimate tells us:Picture 1090

Nuts are projected to be longer, wider, fatter and heavier (better yields?).  Only the percentage of sound kernels is marginally less than last season.

The average nut set per tree is down approx. 7,3%

The overall supply situation will therefore not change dramatically.   While last season 2014/15, total supply was approx. 609.000 short tons (crop of 570.000 short tons + carry in of approx. 39.000 short tons), this year’s total supply will be around 40.000 to 50.000 tons larger.  Will this increase in total supply weaken the market above and beyond of today’s market prices?  The answer is that we shall see, but…..  There could be a bit of a psychological impact, as this crop estimate is a surprise and smaller than expected and it might stabilize the market.  But in the end, supply and demand will dictate the market prices.  There is hope that emerging markets such as India will buy more walnuts this season, on the other hand, there is concern that China may not buy as much.  The lower prices may also encourage a better initial demand in all markets and generally raise the demand in all markets across the globe.  Also, the carry-out inventory contains significant quantities of less desirable darker kernel qualities.  Hence, this gives some reason to expect light kernel grades to remain steady in price.

Two aspects that could be beneficial:  Overall, all the inshell size measurements are larger than last season, which implies nut caliber is larger.  Nuts will be longer, wider, broader.  This gives hope that the percentage of large sized inshell nuts will be better than last season.  Secondly, nuts seem 7% heavier when compared to the previous year, which gives hopes that also the kernel yields could be improved.  This is good for yield recovery and also good for inshell buyers who look to crack inshell walnuts in their import markets.

What strikes me as interesting is the nut set per tree.  We have been hearing that there is a great Howard crop out there and the estimate indicates a nut size per tree that is 12,5% below last season.  The other varieties such as Chandler also show a diminished nut set by approx. 5,6% and Tulare are almost identical to last season.

For the traditional inshell buyers, the Hartley are showing improved size over last season, superior nut weight but less sound kernels and a nut set that is down approx. 4,8%.  The Vina is also larger and heavier and the percentage of sound nuts is quite similar to last season, only that the nut set is 19% below last season.

All in all, this is an intriguing estimate.  The market was soft in recent weeks.  This estimate could stabilize prices in the short term.  We all now hope for a good harvest with no rain and many good quality walnuts and a market that will encourage seller to sell and buyers to buy with confidence.

We look forward to supporting you this season and wish you a successful 2015/16 walnut season.

date:  Sep 04, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on California Walnut crop estimate and thoughts…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

SOLEIL A.S. Dried Figs – Newsletter

The total quantity of 2015 crop was announced by Izmir Commodity Exchange as 74.505 kg, against 69.731 kg of last year’s estimates.
We believe that the crop is much bigger, around 90.000 tons, which means all times record.other2
It is deliberately under estimated by the Authorities to prevent the price dropping too much. But soon or later, we expect a significant decrease in the current price levels.

Comparing to terrible quality of 2014 crop, we can say that the quality is excellent this year. The fruits have lighter color and high sugar content. The only problem seems the high percentage of split figs in early harvest, but the quantity of sound fruits is more than enough for the market’s demand.

The official first export date was announced as October 2nd. If we consider 7-10 days late harvest due to weather conditions, it seems as a reasonable date.

The market opened quite firm. The farmers insist on the same price levels of last year, and some of the traders support them by speculative purchases. In any case, strong US$ rate helps export quotations to be 15-20% cheaper than last year.

Best wishes for a pleasant season !

date:  Sep 04, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on SOLEIL A.S. Dried Figs – Newsletter
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

We would like to share the latest developments of the Sultanas / Raisins market with you

Report from Ozgur Tarim:

According to the data from Aegean Exporters union,  Turkey exported 255.043 tons between 01.09.2014 to 29.08.2015. The average price of this total quantity was $1800/MT

Looking at this figure, we believe crop size of 2014 crop was lower than the declared volume 328.000 tons and it was 305 thousand tons.

We believe there was also a carry in of around 35 thousand tons which made the total supply 340 thousand tons.

2014 Crop 305000
Carry In From 2013 crop 35000
Total Available Quantity  340000
Export end of the season 255000
Domestic Consumption (ıncluding alcohol) 40000
Carry Over to 2015 crop 45000
2015 Crop 170000
Carry In From 2013 crop 45000
Total Available Quantity  215000
Domestic Consumption (ıncluding alcohol) 35000
Export end of the season 180000
Carry Over to 2015 crop 0

sultanas

 

Season started, raw material is coming slowly. As was expected, it is a lot slower than 2014 crop.   New seasons shipments will start from this week.  Last year in these days in 2 buying stations we were receiving 1500-1600 MT but in this year we aren’t able to receive more then 250-300 tons.

Aproximately half sold and other half in consignment.

If we divide the region into 4 parts, we will better explain the situation region by region.

  1. Manisa to Akhisar
  2. Manisa to Salihli
  3. Salihli to Alaşehir
  4. Alaşehir to Denizli

Region 4 has the most problem. This area is producing fresh grapes for vineries and for Raki industry. The extreme cold weather in winter time (below –12 C) has damaged these vineyards most seriously. So many vineyards here are dead from cold, needs to be pulled out. We will see if they will replace with vineyards on the coming years. Alcohol industry here was buying more then 250.000 tons of Fresh grapes but they will be able to buy a maximum of 20-30 thousand tons. They are also shifting their demand to other regions, mainly to Region 3.

Region 1 and Region 2 also has serious problems from the several frosts happened through March and April. In these regions there are more then 10 exporters ıf Sultanas and Raisins and mainly the big ones.

Region 3 – Here has the least damage but even in this region according to most optimistic view the shortage is over %40. After a crop of 2014, the yield of the vineyards wasn’t too good.

Here is  generally producing for fresh grape industry and for alcohol mainly raki,  (The left overs from fresh grape industry is shipped to alcohol usually.)  SAMSUNG DIGITAL CAMERA

Our main market on fresh grapes is Russia, due to the crisis there exports are slower, but considering the at least %40 shortage of crop here, the shortage of export doesn’t seem to be as big.

On the other hand the domestic demand for fresh grapes is really big.  Availability of other fruits is even more scarce and more expensive.

Region 3 is also receiving a lot of demand from other regions and has its own demand also. Here most of the goods normally traded through mid traders (merchants).  Big demand to them.

We hear that, there are even some exporters from other regions here, buying fresh and carrying the goods to their regions for drying.

All in all, crop is very short. Prices in Lira terms increased already too high. Tariş already announced their opening prices. They are a lot earlier then they usually are. Because they weren’t having enough and needed to declare some good price to attract growers. Because if anyone misses the season to purchase after the harvest this year will have difficulty later on.   Thankfully yet the currency is helping the USD offered prices from increasing too much. From another perspective this devaluation is also helping Lira prices of raw material to increase more.

Importers are mostly quiet, they try to collect previously made (mostly very low priced) contracts as fast as possible. Until these are finished they prefer to watch and see the developments in the market. Most comparing this season to 2013 crop, while prices increased too much at the beginning and then decreased too much. They are afraid the same may happen this year again. But please remember that time prices reached upto 2900 usd / ton in Turkey but that time California had a really big crop and a carry over. They used this opportunity too good to get rid of their accumulated stocks. But this year the situation is a lot more different. And yet, still they are more expensive then Turkey.  Other than USA , there is no other origin to substitute

Of course Turkish prices shouldn’t increase too much. We always say that this is not a medicine 🙂  We believe it must be max 2500 usd / ton.  But you never know there is no control over the market but due to the psychology of the players in the short term we may see a lot bigger fluctuations.

The levels today which are between 2300-2500 USD is not too high considering the past levels. But not that easy for the buyers to accept after lower then 1600 usd levels of last year.

We prefer to sell on a daily basis. What we buy we try to offer and sell. As always is the priority is with Chelmer Foods.

We will keep to follow the market very closely.

Please let us know if you have any comments or questions.

date:  Sep 02, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on We would like to share the latest developments of the Sultanas / Raisins market with you
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More