Monthly Archives March 2016

Latest developments with the Turkish vine fruit market

On Saturday morning there was frost in several regions. We can say roughly 100 thousand acre (1000m2) was affected severely. This is 1/10 of the total region.

Considering the fact that this an early frost, the vineyards will most definitely give new births. The second births aren’t as  productive as the first ones but most definitely they are going to save some serious part of the damage. National Dried Fruit Trade Association

For the above reasons, we believe the frost didn’t really decrease the quantity of the crop. Other than that yet all looks well.

Due to the very warm weather conditions on February. Vineyards are early. After couple of days of cold weather last week the weather heated up again. So the vineyards are growing on full speed. The risk for frost remains until end of April. Please remember last year frost came 24th of April. And that the late frosts don’t recover with new births.  For the short period ahead we don’t see a risk on the weather conditions.

 

date:  Mar 23, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Latest developments with the Turkish vine fruit market
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Walnuts Update received from Empire Pacific

Walnut Carryout Estimates 02-2016 << Click Here

Above you will find attached the latest Walnut report for sales through February.

As we expected February was up significantly March shipments last year were much higher because the dock strike hand ended so March/April/May were up quite a bit last year while shipments resumed back to normal after the dock strike. Also sales were quite strong on Chandler product late last year.

If sales remain at the 13% that we has seen through February 2016 and we continue with more government purchases, the carryout into the 2016 crop year will be about 84,000 tons. Just slightly higher than last year’s 72,000 tons. Overall we should see a very stable market with prices for Chandlers holding near the $3.00 into the new crop. Demand overall has been very good with the lower prices in 2015/2016 crop year.nuts1

Major Market Regional Sales Status

Korea – Sales of Shelled product for the month of February were up 61% over last year’s February shipping period. Increase primarily due to the dock strike that created a large reduction in sales last year. Overall sales are down 20% for the year. In-Shell sales remain flat.

Japan– The Japanese market is strictly a shelled product market. Sales we up 22% for February but remain down 6% for the year. Prices remain very competitive in the market but should see some strengthening due to current shortages observed in the Chandler market.

China– We are seeing a little rebound in the Chinese market. February in-shell sales were up 45% and shelled product up 164%. Overall for the year in-shell is down 40% and shelled product is up 45%. The in-shell market is still 6 times large so reduced sales in this category has a tremendous impact.

Asai Overall –  In-shell sales for the month are up 15%, for the year up 2% . Shelled  for the month are up 29% and for the year up less than 1%.

Europe Overall- In-Shell sales for the month are down 14 % , for the year up 5%. Shelled for the month are up 9% and for the year up 40%

Middle East Overall– In Shell sales for the month are up 21%, for the year up 56%. Shelled for the month are up 82% and for the year  up 76%.

 

Right now the Linden area is pretty much sold out of Chandler product. We have been going to processors in the Northern Sacramento area to find Chandlers. We are only finding one container here and there. It is absolutely moving towards a completely sold out position. Some importers are starting to look at Non-Chandler LHP 20% products. Colour remains very good on the non-Chandler material and is the next best option in light of a sold out Chandler market.

With the reduced availability of California Chandlers , we will be looking at our Chilean partner to market Chilean Chandler product. We will be getting pricing on the Chilean product next week and will advise availability and target prices.

Report received from Empire Pacific Empire Pacific Logo

date:  Mar 22, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Walnuts Update received from Empire Pacific
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Weather – Apricots, Hazelnuts, Raisins & Sultanas

Overnight in the major Turkish growing regions for Apricots (Malatya) and for Raisins & Sultanas (Manisa) temperatures reached worrying levels for the upcoming crops. With further low temperatures forecast tonight for Malatya, Manisa & the Black Sea region (the growing region for Hazelnuts) exporters are already talking up potential damage, thus already talking about HUGE increases in raw material cost. As yet the full extent of any damage is yet to be determined and any figures in the market are merely speculation at this moment in time.

We will of course keep you updated once we receive further information from our partners in Turkey.

date:  Mar 17, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Weather – Apricots, Hazelnuts, Raisins & Sultanas
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

The Walnut Board of California has released the February Monthly Shipment Report

The Walnut Board of California has released the February Monthly Shipment Report:

February  of 2016 compared to February  2015 Shipments– February 2016 shipments were 50,373  Inshell equivalent tons compared to 40,474   Inshell equivalent tons last year. Representing an increase of +24%.  Another strong shipment month for the industry creating more bullish sentiments among industry experts.

Year to date Shipments 2015/2016 vs. 2014/2015 Marketing Year- Inshell Equivalent Tonnage for the 2015/2016 crop is 368,103   compared to 319,863  last year.  Representing an increase  of 48,240  inshell equivalent tons equaling +15%walnuts1

CROP RECEIPTS– Receipts are 599,846 Inshell tons as of February 29th  2016. .  The CASS Crop Estimate was at 575,000 Inshell tons.

Crop –  The  crop receipts  on this report are a  good indication on overall crop size.

Rain: The rains in California are back.  El Nino has shown up with multiple inches of rain and feet of snow in the mountains.  We expect to see at least some additional rainfall through the middle of next week.  The overall outlook into March is to have periodic weather patterns and continued rain and snow in the mountains.

Pricing  –.  A lot more  packers are reporting only a few loads of inshell and kernels left in their inventory.   LHP 80% Chandler is now very difficult to find as some packers are down to 1-2 loads.  If you are looking for LHP Chandler, please look to book some volume in the near future.  As we get closer to the summer and it starts getting HOT, that item will darken quicker.    The item that continues to  put the most pressure on the market at this time is Combo Halves and Pieces.  Many packers are reporting that they have an over stock of CHP in their inventory and will be aggressive in pricing to get it moved.

Chile:  We have spoken to some of the Chilean Walnut packers and they have started to offer some of their earliest varieties of including Serr and Chandler.  Not all packers are motivated to sell Chandler Kernels yet, as they are focused on getting some of their inshell business going first. Overall quality looks very good.  If yo have demand please advise us.

date:  Mar 14, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on The Walnut Board of California has released the February Monthly Shipment Report
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

The Almond Board of California has released the February Almond position report

The Almond Board of California has released the February Almond position report with shipments of  +155 million pounds compared to last year 139.9 million pounds for an increase of  +10.8 percent.  This shipment number was the second highest month for the month February that we have had for the industry.

January Shipments surprised a few people with how strong they were.  We expected strong shipments this year in February, as last year in February we were dealing with the West Coast Port strikes and our sales in January of this year were quite strong.  This  shipment report is a bullish report in the eyes of many industry experts.  India was off by 54% which will turn into a very bullish sentiment as their local market is lacking product.049

  • Exports                                 +14.6%
  • Domestic                             +3.7%
  • China                                     +13%
  • India                                      -54%
  • Spain                                     +58%
  • Germany                              0%
  • United Arab Emirates      -22%

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:    +991 million pounds compared to  1.058 billion pounds last year for a decrease of  6.28 percent.

USA                -6%

  • Spain                         +30%
  • Germany      -21%
  • Italy               +35%
  • China             -7%
  • India              10%

CROP RECEIPTS+1.882 billion pounds.

CURRENCY:  The Euro is at  $1.10 dollars.

BLOOM: Bloom has finished.  Overall bloom was strong.  Excellent weather, good bee hours, and sporadic rains allowed for the trees to have a good bloom.  We will have  a better idea on the upcoming crop during the next two months.  This initial indications are for a solid crop.  Additionally, we have had good rains this season which has assisted our snow pack in the Sierra mountains.

PRICES:   At these new levels we are seeing a growing level of demand materialize for both current and new crop at this time.  Almonds are extremely favorably priced and we will start seeing a quicker sales on them at these present levels.

date:  Mar 14, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on The Almond Board of California has released the February Almond position report
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Apricot Update

Apricot Update
Exports in February were 5,507 tons compared with 3,485 tons last year an increase of 58%

Year to date exports reached 51,913 tons compared to 32,871 tons last year, an increase of 58%

Year to date consumption including domestic consumption is now approximately 58,000 tons. Total supply was approximately 80,000 tons.

Crop to sell out
Robust exports, inline with expectations. Exports look likely to continue at similar levels until new crop in August, leaving negligible carryover.

Bloom starts 2 to 3 weeks early
Following record warm temperatures in February, the orchards along the lake started to bloom last week, during the course of this week, the majority of the remaining growing areas  will join them. Such an early bloom is always risky. Temperatures are cooling closer to normal, but the 10 day forecast so far does not forecast frost.  The risk period is 6 to 8 weeks from now and getting through it completely unscathed is unlikely.

The market is steady, small sizes are sold out, packers seem to have squared their books ahead of the frost risk period which will dictate future price trends. Lack of a carryover to cushion any damage makes things extra risky.

The Turkish Lira has strengthened against the $ in the past week and is now trading at Tl 2.92 / $1

date:  Mar 08, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Apricot Update
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Californian Almond Update

For all intents and purposes the 2016 bloom is complete with only a very few straggling orchards finishing petal fall and moving into the nutlet stage. The valley is transforming into a sea of bright green as orchards vigorously sprout new leaves and nutlets. Given the quick progression of the bloom period, the 2016 bloom will be considered a “flash bloom”.

The past 7 days have been ideal for almond pollination, above normal temperatures, plenty or bright sunshine to facilitate abundant bee activity and an absence of any inclement weather. Equally important to the development of the crop, the conditions facilitate the rapid growth of nutlets improving the possibility of nut retention.

Below please find an evaluation of the factors playing a major role in setting a successful crop for the in the 3 stages of bloom.

Pre-Bloom

Chilling Hours:  Average to above normal throughout the valley

Soil moisture: Winter storms began in October and continued through January providing saturated soils and leaching of salts

Bud Set: Given the below normal crop last year bud development appeared to be strong

Bloom:

Flowering: Strong bloom consistent with coming off a short crop

Overlap of Varieties: Average with some reports Fritz out a little early

Temperatures: Above normal throughout the valley consistently in the high  60”s ( 15C)to low 70’s (21C) Many areas set records for consecutive days above 70’s degrees

Moisture: One minor weather event during flowering with little or no damage reported. Orchard moistures were reported to be good with dew or fog in morning on multiple days. No reports of frost or temperatures near freezing

Bee Hours: Excellent bee activity every day

Post bloom

Excellent weather up to this point for healthy nut development. A major storm system will be hitting California today through Wednesday which is forecasted to drop significant rain on the valley floor and several feet of snow in the mountains. NOAA long-term forecast for March is for above normal rainfall and below normal temperatures.

Despite the excellent weather conditions during pollination, it is impossible to estimate the success of the bloom at this time. It is often said the weather after the bloom is as critical as during the bloom. Unfortunately the post bloom weather outlook is less than ideal.  Moreover keep in mind that California’s Central Valley has the threat of frost well into April.

Below please find the potential 2016 crop using the actual yield for the last 5 years and a bearing acreage of 920,000 acres.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Actual Yield per Acre in Lbs. 2,540 2,310 2,360 2,150 2,135
Projected 2016 Crop using yield per acre Yields

(Millions of lbs.)

2,337 2,125 2,171 1,978 1,964

 

date:  Mar 08, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Californian Almond Update
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Sultana & Raisin Update

Relating to the recent news and dramatic market changes, we would like to give you brief market information about Turkish Sultana Raisins.

Nowadays, raw material as well as the export market of Turkish Sultana Raisins having active days. Firstly, on 19th Jan 2016, EU Commission has published a Regulation (EU 2016/60). Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards maximum residue levels for chlorpyrifos stating that according to EU commission, Raisins MRL content lowered 0,5 ppm to 0,01 ppm starts from 10 August 2016. This news made a shock affect in the market in first weeks of February. Mentioned Chlorpyrifos ingredient exist in various legal pesticides in the market and widely used in all over the Turkish vineyards. Mainly against the diseases on bunches, pesticides that have active element of chlorpyrifos are used from the start of August when bunches appear. So the first step from the government should be the recall the all type of pesticides that has the ingredient from the market and ban the usage of the such pesticides in vineyards and finally of course to control the sustainability.

Turkish raisins crop 90% is exported to EU countries. As a result of planned 10th August is very soon for agricultural industry, it appeared to be a very big risk that current remaining crop cannot be exported to EU that has widely occurrence of chlorpyrifos. This shock affect pulled the bourse prices down to TL4,10 levels in just 3 weeks from TL4,80 previous levels.

Panicked raw material handlers try to sell out their stocks in order to clean current crop raw materials that made a huge supply in raw material market. Also export offer prices come to USD.1650-1700pmtons Fob İzmir levels due to the big supply. Accordingly weekly export volumes, we can see also the shipments reached almost 5000mtons of sultana raisins per week that is even higher than last year with a much bigger crop size.

Around 10 years ago, one of the active substances from a widely used pesticide was also forbidden from the EU in a very short duration. At that time, meetings with the EU community and Turkish government resulted that legislation has postponed 1 year more for Turkish Raisins product item only in order to protect the crop, production and trade business. Many exporters this year is also expecting such conclusion from already started meetings with EU commission. If another a year postpone is gained, growers and government may have enough time to recall and clean the prohibited pesticides as well as the market can get to normal price levels. Otherwise, not only this year but also 2016 crop prices will be affected by this regulations change that Turkey is historically start new seasons with carry-over stock.

Moreover, still too high temperatures goes on the production areas which we mentioned before is a big risk of early born. Today, we can see the vineyards already awake. February was averagely 5-10C above the seasonal temperatures. These days, we see 25-28 C in Manisa production areas that may provoke even faster growing of the plants. Eventually, we may see a high risk of damage if frost condition end March or beg. April 2016. Resulting the vineyards are growing very early this season, cold related incidents may damage in big percentages of the 2016 new crop. Together with the pesticide issues, raw material prices may hit very high level in the beginning of the new crop. That’s the reason nowadays many European buyers do as much as contract from the record low prices this year.

Source: Dorain Trade

date:  Mar 02, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Sultana & Raisin Update
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More