Monthly Archives December 2017

Happy New Year

I hope that 2017 has been a successful year for you and your business, to all our customer, suppliers and partners alike, here is to a prosperous 2018! 

We appreciate the time you have spent working with us! 

Here’s to a happy and healthy 2018 for you and yours!

date:  Dec 29, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Happy New Year
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Latest thoughts on Almond market

The large November shipment report bought a fair amount of excitement to the market. However, if the packers are able to maintain and hold last year’s overall sales, the carryout would be 471 million pounds. This remains a lot of product and if it does happen, it will have a negative impact on next year’s pricing when we will probably see another 100,000 acres come into production.

They really need to continue to sell in order to keep moving this crop. The acreage indicates that there is 1,000,000 acres bearing this year and right now there is 2,250 million pounds in estimated deliveries and it looks like they will hit this number. More of the 2017 crop  will come into the plants, which on the surface indicates that the acreage report remains inaccurate. This crop did not produce 2,250 pounds per acre so there has to be more bearing acreage than the reported 1,000,000 acres.

If you add another 100,000 acres to next year’s crop then this will add another 200 million pounds to production. So, looking into the 2018 crop and with no further increases in monthly sales, you might see a total supply in 2018 close to 3,000 million pound. The one thing that will affect this number will be the pullouts. As the grower prices drop, you will see more pullouts of older orchards that only product about 1500-1700 lbs. per acre.

date:  Dec 21, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Latest thoughts on Almond market
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Vine Fruit Report

There is no significant change in the Turkish Sultanas & Raisin market. All raw material which is currently being bought to the bourse is being bought and we have seen some slow and small increases, but buyers and sellers are very calm. It is normal for December to have a slight dip in the market. After the second half of December, European markets are generally closed and this period continues into the beginning of the new year.

From the beginning of the season up to last week, 177.016 kg sultanas raisins have been traded from bourses, so with more than half of the crop already out of the hands of the growers.  There is a longer period ahead, so more water will pass from underneath the bridge.

During last week Std.Type N.8 sultanas were traded at levels of 4.15 to 4.20 TL, Std.Type N.9 sultanas were traded at levels of 4.25 – 4.35 TL. Type N.10 sultanas are arrived at limited quantities at the bourse with prices 4.55 Tl-4.60 TL.

We do not expect very serious changes in the short term, but political developments can be hard to reflect in USD currency terms in the period, which can seriously affect the price of the Turkish sultanas raisins.


-Customers are not rushing as they were last year (Chlorpyrifos issue- last year)

-Everyone (grower, exporter, trader, customer/ user) has enough stock in their hands

-Competing countries are high but also flat; perhaps US up to $3250 from previous 2800

-Prices are around US 3,000, Aus 2500, S Afr 1900, Arg 1800, Iran 1500, Ch 1500

-It is very difficult to guess Natural Thomson Seedless Raisin figure in Turkey; while total volume is believed to be 310-340K MT.

-Very limited good quality dark fruit around due to lack of rain

date:  Dec 20, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Vine Fruit Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

The Almond Board of California has released the November Almond Position Report

The Almond Board of California has released the November Almond Position Report with shipments of +228.46 million pounds compared to last year’s 187.5 million pounds for an increase of  +21.8 percent

DOMESTIC:         61.12 million pounds     +17%
EXPORT:               167.34 million pounds   +23.7%

                                Month- November
CHINA                  +27 mil lbs
INDIA                    +29.9 mil lbs
S. KOREA             +5.7 mil lbs
GERMANY          +11.2 mil lbs
SPAIN                   +14.9 mil lbs
TURKEY                +5.7 mil lbs
UAE                       +6.3 mil lbs

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:  +834 million pounds compared to 794 million pounds for an increase of +4.97%.
                                CROP YEAR TO DATE       Increase/Decrease
CHINA                  +91.8 mil lbs                      -8%
INDIA                    +110 mil lbs                        +24%
S. KOREA             +15.6 mil lbs                      -2%
GERMANY          +42.1 mil lbs                      +20%
SPAIN                   +60.1 mil lbs                      +3%
TURKEY                +26.4 mil lbs                      -1%
UAE                       +28.7 mil lbs                      +13%

CROP RECEIPTS:  The crop receipts are now at +1.993  billion pounds compared to last year’s 1.930 billion pounds for an increase of +3.27  percent.

NEW SALES in NOVEMBER:- New sales of +211 million pounds were made during November.  Another record month for sales in November!

MARKETS: The markets have been expecting these strong shipments for a while now and prices have remained stable to slightly firmer.  With this record number for shipments, we may see packers/growers attempt to move up prices by 5-10 cents per pound in the short term. December shipments look to be extremely strong as well which should keep markets firm until mid-January. Some packers are already reporting that they are full for January at this time.

RAIN: California is lacking in rain thus far this season. None is forecasted in the near future. Snow pack is minimal. If this trend continues into early January you will hear more discussions about rain.

date:  Dec 13, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on The Almond Board of California has released the November Almond Position Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More


On Friday,  December 8th, the California Walnut Board released the November 2017 Position Report.   Shipments for the month ended November 2017 were down approximately 9.9% versus November 2016 shipments and for the 3 months ended November 2017 were down approximately 21.3% from the same 3 month period the year prior.   For your review is a summary comparison on an inshell comparable basis using an identical shell out rate of 44.1% for both years:
                                       Inshell             Inshell
Equiv.              Equiv.
Tons               Tons             %
Nov. 2017       Nov. 2016     Chg

Crop Receipts                   614,565        675,797    -9.1%
Total Supply                      670,541        740,967    -9.5%
Monthly Shipments             99,091        109,939    -9.9%
Export Shipments               74,785          85,099   -12.1%
Domestic Shipments           24,306         24,840    -2.1%
YTD Shipments                 229,891       292,102   -21.3%
YTD Export Shipments      164,603       220,630   -25.4%
YTD Domestic Shipments    65,288         71,473   -8.7%
Inventory                             440,650      448,865    -1.8%
Shipments as % of Crop        37.4%        43.2%
Shipments as % of Supply     34.3%        39.4%

Shipments for the month of November 2017 and YTD are underwhelming yet packer’s do not seem daunted.  They point to a slow start to the harvest by 2-3 weeks and purposely conservative sales due to a smaller and less definitive crop.

Receipts through November 2017 were 614,565 inshell equivalent ton compared to 675,797 the prior year, or down 9.1%.   Last year’s final production was 686,000 ton indicating another 10,203 ton received in after November 2016.  However, due to this year’s lateness,  the crop may “catch up” a bit and many believe there is still an additional 10,000 to 20,000 ton still to come in.  The 2017 California walnut production was forecast at 650,000 ton so it appears that making this estimate is highly unlikely and the final crop receipts will still be close to the 9.1% that they are behind YTD.

Year to date supply for 2016 had carry in of 65,170 ton plus November 2016 YTD receipts of 675,797 ton equated to a total supply of 740,967 ton.   For the same period in 2017,  carry in of 55,976 ton plus November 2017 YTD receipts of 614,565 ton had total supply at 670,541 ton,  down 9.5%.

Shipments as a percentage of supply are 34.3% for 2017-2018 versus 39.4% for 2016-2017 or a roughly 5% decline.
–  YTD Export shipments of 164,603 ton are down 25.4% and YTD Domestic shipments of 65,288 are down 8.7%.  Total YTD shipments are down by a significant 21.3%.

Color Quality is excellent in spite of sweltering summer heat and a record number of over 100 degree days.   There is a tremendous amount of good quality light material but conversely a real shortage of combo color; a double edge sword.  The decline in the availability of combo color and a higher percentage of light color continues to put a tightening on the spread between these two items with good momentum upward on combo prices and a flattening of prices of light material.  Additionally, both light and combo pieces of all sizes are hard to come by and not expected to get any better as the year moves on.

date:  Dec 13, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on California Walnuts – NOVEMBER 2017 WALNUT MONTHLY MANAGEMENT REPORT
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Greek Currants Market Report

An update of the market and prospects for Greek Currants

Latest estimates of the 2017 crop, point to a total of 15,000 – 16,000mt, compared to more than 19,000mt, for the 2016 crop.  There was no carryover from the 2016 crop whereas carryover from 2015 into the 2016 crop was 4,000mt. So total supply at the time of harvest in September this year, was 15,000 – 16,000mt, compared to 23,000mt total, at the same time last year.

The dramatic reduction in supply, has led to an increase in offer prices, exacerbated by the fact that growers are reluctant sellers, as they expect higher prices, by holding out. There are also many traders or “Middle men” on the market, who are seeking to maximise their return.

There had been some speculation that some growers would look to sell quantities of their raw material, by the end of November, on the basis that by doing so, they would qualify for a state subsidy. The reality is that this does not seem to have been the case. Growers qualify for two subsidies, one paid by the Greek Government and one by the EU, the EU being the greater. It is also possible that some growers are also waiting for the new tax year before selling their raw material (the Greek tax year starts on 1st January each year).

Unlike other markets, we do not receive reliable statistical information from the Greek Currants market. There is no official crop estimate, no carry over information from crop to crop and no detailed information regarding export trends. So, we are reliant upon our ongoing dialogue with packers and our own observations during our regular visits.

Such dialogue leads to the conclusion that there will be some new offers of 2017 crop Currants, in the months ahead, but these are likely to be at elevated price levels.

A critical time period will be April, when we see the first indicators of the prospects for the 2018 crop, which will be harvested in August/September 2018. If early indicators are good, then the value of raw material would be likely to stabilise, however, any frost or negative developments during that period, may lead to further rises in the prices of any remaining raw material.  Either way, there is no prospect of a fall in offer prices, from present levels.

We feel it likely that the 2017 crop will sell out, well ahead of the arrival of 2018 crop. Therefore, even if the 2018 crop is of higher volume and good quality, it is unlikely that we will see any relief from the prevailing, higher offer prices, until Q1 2019, at the earliest. Any issues with the quality or quantity of the 2018 crop, may bring further untold pressure to the market.

In an attempt to address the issues within the market and protect its future, we drafted a letter to The Greek Minister of Agriculture, which was issues by our Trade Association.  We have offered to meet with the Minister, to discuss measures which would stimulate the Greek Currants market in the short, medium and long term. We are presently awaiting their reply.

We will keep you closely informed regarding offer prices and market developments, as the information becomes available.

date:  Dec 11, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Greek Currants Market Report
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Thailand Dehydrated Fruits

The current winter crop is still has a good level of supply and this situation should still last until the next coming summer crop (Apr-June 2018). The price last month has dropped down to a certain point where it’s not favourable to farmers and this has caused the price to bounce back slightly higher as per the government’s announcement to all canned packers to maintain the purchasing price for the long term sustainability of the pineapple farming industry.

The price is expected to maintain at this level and is expected not to further reduce. In other words, pineapple’s price should already passed their rock-bottom situation.

The supply has significantly dropped down, despite being in the papaya’s peak season (Nov.-Jan.), this is due to the current and long continuous flood situation in south of Thailand during the last 2 months.

However, we notice that the price is currently not going up much as the demand for the canning is quite light. But we expect that the price may likely start to go up soon once the crop has passed by.

The crop has been harvested and the price level, comparing to last year is slightly higher.

The level of supply during the whole year 2017 is somewhat about 20% less than year 2016 and the price is slightly higher than last year. The situation of short mango supply is also expected to remain until next year as the mango itself is perennial which it needs about 3 years to obtain the fruits. In other words, it’s difficult to expect the increase in supply during the next year.

date:  Dec 11, 2017 comments:  Comments Off on Thailand Dehydrated Fruits
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More