The Pecan crop estimate for the 2018 / 2019 season was released at the Tri-state growers conference last week at 300 million lbs which would mean a fairly sizeable crop in the US.
It is also expected that the Mexican crop will be large too. Whilst there is no official number, it is widely expected to be over 250 million lbs. Despite the promisingg numbers, it is important to note that it remains very early in the growing season. These numbers should give us a fair indication, taking into account the additional acreage, that has been planted over the last 10 years.
Most shippers are almost sold out and have very limited volume left to offer. Small volumes may be found however it is recommended that any short positions are covered as soon as possible to guarantee supply. Due to the South African crop size and availability, we have seen a very slight softening of prices within June.
With 3 months remaining before the beginning of the new crop North American harvest, there are numerous scenarios that can play out during this period, however if all goes well we can expect the new crop pricing level to be below the levels we have seen for this season.