Monthly Archives September 2018

Almond August Position Report -8.5% percent decrease

The Almond Board of California has released the August Position Report with shipments tallying  +154.2 million pounds compared to 168.5  million pounds last year for a -8.5%  percent decrease.

The August shipments had been expected to be lower than last year as harvest was off to a slower start this season combined with the later Diwali Holiday so India was not pushing as hard for early shipments and impacts of the international tariffs and currency issues impacting many countries.

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS: 1st month of the season with shipments at  154.2 million pounds compared to  168.5  million pounds last year for a decrease of -8.5 percent.  Thanks

  • INDIA- +8%- +22.2 million pounds versus 20.4 million lbs last year
  • China – +3%- 4.6 million versus 4.4 million lbs last year
  • Spain-  – 30%   12.3 million lbs versus 17.5 million last year
  • Germany-  -40%-   6.3 million lbs versus 10.5 million last year
  • U A E-   -42%    1.2 million lbs versus 2.0 million lbs last year
  • Turkey-   -77%    731K versus 3.1 million lbs last year

The industry is now at a 20.8% sold percent for the new crop and 24.3% sold on total marketable( new crop plus carry -in).  Total commitments are at 515 million pounds versus 677 million pounds last year.  Overall new sales are lower than in past years.  New sales in August were +238 million pounds.

  • The 1 euro is at 1.16 dollars.
  • Rupee is at 72.59 to the 1 dollar.
  • Yuan is at 6.87  to 1 dollar.
  • Turkish Lira at 6.43 lira to 1 dollar

NASS has the crop estimate at 2.45 billion pounds for 2018.

Harvest has been somewhat eventful.  The crop came in much slower and receipts for the 2nd year in a row are behind pace. This is a sign of a later harvest than last year and even behind normal or averages harvest times.  Receipts haven’t lagged this far behind since August of 2012.  We have heard some chatter insect damage concerns and low NP yields – mostly geared in the western valley.   The insect damage on received goods is lower than last year but still high at 1.76%.   Generally, California should have no issues handling the insect levels as most simple plants have plenty of lasers and a lot insect can be pulled out at the sheller.  You will notice most of your inshell will have rates at or above 2%.  Normally we would see packers be careful offering NPX material but the need for sales outweighs the concern for quality.   Sizing seems to be uneventful, with most of the state report much smaller than normal NP.   Most believe the NP crop to be behind last year at this point.  However, most packers we talk to aren’t reporting 3rd leaf or the gear up in young trees which is so critical to guesstimate crop sizing.  Nonetheless, harvest results range wildly in places and overall it does seem there are more reports of down than up.  California type harvest is in full swing, we do not have any detailed results yet but we have heard reports all over the board.  At the end of the day it is simply too early to draw conclusions.

Most are expecting the September shipments to be off slightly due to the impact of currency and tariffs affecting many markets.  Some packers are reporting being full for their September and October productions schedules while others do have space in October for new contracts.

 

date:  Sep 12, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Almond August Position Report -8.5% percent decrease
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Apricots exports started the season strongly

  • Exports in August were 7,546 tons, compared to 8,547 tons last year.
  • Average export price for whole apricots for August  was $2988/ton FOB compared to $2,986 in July.

Exports started the season strongly when you consider that there was a 10 days public holiday from the 17th to the 27th of August during which all plants, ports and customs were shut. The same holiday in 2017 fell in September and because it straddled the weekend only lasted for 5 days.

Lower prices due to the devaluation of the Lira were not reflected in August shipment numbers, but will start to affect average prices and increased sales from September onwards.

Harvest was completed early in August without any rain damage, however micros are high this year possibly due to the extremely wet growing conditions right up to harvest. We have been rejecting significant lots of incoming materials, and have decided to micro test every lot before it is accepted into the plant this year. As previously reported speckles and hail damage blemishes are high. The majority of the fruit is size 1 through 4.

Overall supply of  2018 crop plus a small carryover is estimated at 120,000 tons, the same as the previous year.

Of course the big story in July and August was the dramatic fall in the Lira, from 4.80 to the greenback at the beginning of harvest in July the Lira fell to an all time low of more than 7.00 before regaining some of its losses. This week it has been somewhat stable in a range between 6.45 and 6.75. The trigger for the falls were a combination of a lack of confidence in the new economy team and their policies, ongoing political tensions with the USA and rising inflation.  So far none of the actions taken to address these have been considered effective.

Dollar to Turkish Lira March to September 2018

Lower $ prices as a result of the devaluation have fuelled significant demand, prices are at an 11 year low, despite supply being no more than last year. As happened in the 1990’s in Turkey, producers of export commodities have started to look to increase prices in line with the fall in the Lira to offset the rising cost of input materials and living expenses. The majority of farmers who needed cash have now sold, and prices have started to firm in Malatya. As supply of quality material dwindles as it did last year during the autumn we expect a similar pattern of firming prices. We think we have seen the bottom of the market this year.

date:  Sep 10, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Apricots exports started the season strongly
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Californian Walnut Crop Estimate 2018

The 2018 California walnut production is forecast at a record 690,000 tons, up 10 percent from 2017’s production of 630,000 tons. This is very close to the Handler’s Estimate of 691,000 tons that came out  at the end of July.  This forecast is based on the 2018 Walnut Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was officially conducted August 1st  through August 21st. , 2018.

Late spring rains  provided cooler conditions which increased kernel size and helped quality. Insect pressure was reported to be down from last year. During the excessive heat waves over the summer, growers applied preventative materials to help prevent sunburn. Harvest is expected to begin during within the next 2-3 weeks, during the middle of September.

The 2018 Walnut O.M. Survey utilised a total of 726 blocks with two sample trees per block. Survey data indicated an average nut set of 1,176 per tree, up 3 percent from 2017’s average of 1,141 per tree.

Will this estimate now bring more buyers into the market? The 690,000 tons is right in line with what the suppliers had originally thought.

We do expect pricing to remain somewhat stable until we get into harvest and see what the yield and quality of the crop will be.

date:  Sep 03, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Californian Walnut Crop Estimate 2018
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More