Monthly Archives January 2019

Raw cashew nut 2019 crop scenario:

Crop reports are coming in globally – Some places early and most places a good crop.

At new crop raw cashew prices the processing parity of cashews is coming to 3.60 USD/lb

The prices are expected to move southwards and therefore larger processors are willing to sell April /May /June positions close to 3.55-3.60 USD/lb (some may be at 3.51). There is no raw material in the processing warehouses . It will start arriving in March and April.

Processors have not contracted raw cashew nut as they do not have enough sales in the books so they want to put some sales in the books.

Many buyers of kernels  have made their purchase hand to mouth.

Kernel price movement and volatility 

10-20 cents is the impact loss each time market sentiment changes. A lot of kernel in oct contracted at 3.30-3.40… many contracts were defaulted as markets quickly rose to 3.70 levels.

Large traders are short and they are now trying to push the market down and then cover.

Price View  :

Vietnam market is skewed to USA and China as they constitute 80% of the demand.

In USA the trading houses  have taken shorts from Jan to June .

Chinese demand comes in after one month of the new year and they will be in the market some time first half March .

date:  Jan 28, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Raw cashew nut 2019 crop scenario:
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Seeds Update

Linseed

Market is just starting to get a bit tighter in terms of available unsold raw material. Stocks in Western Europe are very low with deliveries into processors really starting to slow up. Every pre-supplier is struggling to get linseed into Europe ant they are now starting to have to pay a premium for prompt shipments. Y-O-Y costing has been hit by increases in the cost of paper and transport costs (mainly fuel driven). Paper bags went up in price with 10% in 2019 & transport rates went up with 5% in 2019. Our supplier is reporting they have product unsold but enquiries are starting to trickle in for Q3/Q4 and that they’ll start to see pressure on their unsold material as we get closer to Q2.

Hulled Millet

We are expecting the market to remain difficult throughout the crop. Buyers have been trying to source better prices from across USA, Poland & Ukraine, and now many origins now have very limited volume remaining. Packers in USA are reporting a full forward book for 2/3 months when previously they had spare capacity for prompt shipments, this is likely to get worse as shipments from Ukraine & Poland slow down with available material really drying up. A hot summer will continue to put pressure on European harvest as we experienced with last year. Prices are only expected to continue to rise in the coming months.

Sunflower

Market has been fairly flat recently however we are seeing some additional demand from China. The expectation is that the market would expect to remain fairly stable at around €620/mt FOB with only currency variations really pushing prices up.

Pumpkin

It is apparent that the demand for pumpkin seeds, especially for European markets, is currently slow however other markets such as Indian and America continues to have strong demand. At present the raw material availability is starting to tighten but packers are actively chasing new business and as such are offering competitively against each other in the hope of securing sales before the expected squeeze on raw material strikes. The coming months we are expecting the prices to rise steadily. Domestic use of material for the roasted industry is increasing year on year with this now showing the initial signs of putting genuine pressure on the quantity that China will be able to export.

Poppy

Prices rose sharply during 2018 hitting all time highs. Problem is though, that while these price levels indeed have been noted, availability is still very scarce, so demand keeps on constantly exceeding supply, certainly at the current levels and most probably also at, again, a tick higher levels. Demand remains healthy, with prices being adjusted by the week and all over the globe, where fresh inquiries are landing more and more in the EU from the other continents as well, which resulted in a solid floor under, as well as being further supportive to, the current price levels.  

date:  Jan 21, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Seeds Update
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Walnut Crop update and Market report December 2018


Happy New Year All!

A report to reflect on last year’s Walnut Market and crops, for the month of December.

The December 2018 shipments versus the December 2017 shipments on an inshell equivalent were up approximately 12.5%.  Total was 77,012 tons versus 67,408 tons last year.

Domestic Market – December 2018 shipments versus 2017 shipments on an inshell equivalent were down -8.3%

Export Market – December 2018 shipments versus 2017 shipments on an inshell equivalent were up about +19%.

The Numbers – Key Market Shipments:  December 2018 versus December 2017

  • Shelled Germany:  6.173 Million vs 8.179 Million for a decrease of (-24.5%)
  • Inshell China/Hong Kong: 573,108 vs 3.97 Million for a decrease of (-85.5 %)
  • Inshell Vietnam: 683,316 vs 1.7 Million for a decrease of + 60.8%
  • Inshell UAE: 11.5 Million vs 2.16 Million for an increase of +432%
  • Inshell Pakistan: 2.072 Million vs 221,552 for an increase of +835.5%
  • Inshell Turkey: 16 Million vs 9.3 Million for increase of +71.83%

Crop Size: Crop receipts are 669,868,036 tons as of December 31th, 2018. 

Market: Turkey up almost 72%, Dubai up 432%, Pakistan up 835%!! This confirms that buyers can ship large quantities when prices are below the $1.00 per pound mark. The Middle East more than makes up for China/Hong Kong/Vietnam being down dramatically. Germany continues to disappoint with kernel shipments down -24.5%, Spain did well on kernels up +14.5%, and up over 75% on inshell.

Prices: Inshell demand has come in strong in the past 2 weeks, especially from the Middle East. California has shipped inshell heavily since the beginning of the season, January will be the same with most suppliers packing schedules full for the month of January and the first half of February. As a result, most sellers have sold out and others hesitant to offer until they know exactly what they have. Prices have increased dramatically as a result, with reputable sellers now wanting $1.15 FAS for Jumbo Large Chandler. We expect continued firming on inshell prices, kernels will soon follow as the season progresses.  Some industry experts predict inshell prices will reach $1.25 FAS soon.

Any advise we can offer, feel free to get in touch.

Ben Jones

National Account Manager.

Phone: 01376 343500 / Mob: 0751 443196

date:  Jan 21, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Walnut Crop update and Market report December 2018
by:  Ben Jones category:  Latest News Read More

Almonds Report

The Almond Board of California has released the position report with shipments of 199.6 million pounds compared to 204.5 million pounds last year for a decrease of 2.4 percent.

DOMESTIC: 53.38 million pounds +0.8%

EXPORT: 146.22 million pounds -3.5%

The December report displays about 97% of Almond receipts, and brings perspective to the size of the crop. This year it reflects a crop size of 2.202 billion lbs, -0.25% down over the previous year. It is affirmed that this year’s crop will be approximately the same as last year: 2.28 up to 2.30 billion lbs.

The Californian weather has been enjoying some constant rain this month, which brings them closer to their normal averages for this time of year. The snow had been below average a couple of weeks ago, but winter storms over the Sierra Mountains have brought some good quantities of snow. It is anticipated to have more rain and snow in the coming weeks.

Over the past few weeks, sales have been solid. Due to producers realizing that the crop will come in below what had been originally estimated, costs have started to increase. All markets hold a strong demand as almonds are competitively priced. Indian prices have recently recovered, and are closer to the Californian spot prices again. Indian buyers have now been more active as a result of this.

California sold 179.6 mm lbs during December, which was an unanticipated new record. This achievement will bolster the confidence that, although some prices have approached a high, demand is still strong.

date:  Jan 16, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Almonds Report
by:  Jena Dickson category:  Latest News Read More

Desiccated coconut market

First of all we wish you a happy, prosperous and above all healthy 2019! Let’s hope this will be a great year for all of us.

Although we are barely in to the new year, we have already begun to collate information from these origins with regard to the DC market and its prospects throughout 2019.

The second half of 2018 in particular would be best described as “cautious”, with most buyers only covering ‘hand to mouth’. Buyers weren’t rushing to buy at depressed market prices, despite a lot of requests for coverage out to the 3Q and even the 4Q of 2019 being there. Of course, buyers see this as an opportunity to cover their long term needs at today’s prices. But producers are not willing to offer forward positions at the same as today’s rates.

Sri Lanka: DC production is almost at a standstill. Some mills are planning to renew production next week while others will recommence production afterward, when demand picks up. The weather conditions that Sri Lanka experienced over 2018 were very favorable. As a result coconut production is expected to return to normal this year, particularly after the 2nd quarter of 2019. On the demand side, with the early Ramadan this year (the Holy month of Ramadan commences from 1st week in May in 2019) overseas demand for coconut of Sri Lankan origin, particularly from the Middle-East countries, will increase in the upcoming months. Sri Lanka producers foresee this will have an upward effect on the prices.

Indonesia: the supply of nuts will be fine until Q2 of 2019. Coconut oil prices stay on the lower side, which will keep the prices low for the next two months at least. The present coconut oil price has already driven the price of raw nuts in Indonesia down to the bottom. If reduced any further, the farmers will no longer have any interest in the planting of coconut trees. Indonesian packers are concerned that if this happens it will disrupt the supply and rates of coconut long term.

The Philippines: nut supplies remain bountiful, and prices seem to have moved sideways for a few months now which suggests a bottom. Although we constantly see a small price blip in the early new year, as the mills start up at the same time and the farmers take a while to start harvesting again after Christmas. There is no medium term nut supply issues, and prices could increase slightly in this period.

date:  Jan 07, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Desiccated coconut market
by:  Jena Dickson category:  Latest News Read More