Monthly Archives October 2019

New Californian Walnut Crop

New Californian Walnut crop is predicted to arrive both later and shorter than expected. There are reports from orchards that suggest the early varieties are down significantly compared to last year. Chandler variety crop represents about 60% of the total California walnut crop. This is expected to be received shortly and in turn should help provide a clearer picture of total new crop production.

Reports have shown that the average nuts set per tree has declined for the total walnut crop (16%) and for all varieties including Chandler (5%), Hartley (31%), Howard (25%), Tulare (29%), and Vina (25%). There is a percentage of Californian Walnut growers that are expecting to come in below the estimated measurement of 630k tons. However, the total crop size will be made clearer when the Chandler harvest ramps up and more receipts are seen.

Many walnut packers are off the market or only offering selectively. This is due to the unclear crop size. This has encouraged many handlers to hold back on their marketing to avoid selling early at lower prices and to avoid being oversold when the crop comes in below expectations, which is what many people estimate.

Business has been done at a higher price recently and the global demand does look strong. The shorter and later crop has affected the marketing season for in-shell and shelled walnuts this year, it is expected to be much longer in duration compared to last year. The is a continual and promising potential in pricing,

We have seen business done at higher price levels and so far, the global demand appetite looks strong. Given the shorter and later crop, the marketing season for in-shell and shelled walnuts this year will be much longer in duration compared to last year. We continue to see upside potential in pricing assumed by the unsatisfactory receipts of early varieties and the potential for Chandler to be down more than expected.

date:  Oct 14, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on New Californian Walnut Crop
by:  Sian Koster category:  Latest News Read More

Almond Position Report

Almond September shipment figures have been released, to many people’s surprise, figures showed increases of 16.2% at 196.24 mm lbs

With a shortage acknowledged coming into new crop, most markets were in desperate need of replacement inventory.  As a result, September shipments and sales displayed drastic improvements over last year and last month’s figures.

In comparison to last year, total shipments by handlers totaled 168.85 mm lbs compared to 196.24 mm lbs this year.  Although domestic shipments proceeded into the year low, have managed to climb 8.5% to 54.35 mm lbs compared to 50.08 last year. Collectively, shipments to nearly every export market was up compared to last year with the exception of India.  India is now down 22% on the year after two poor shipment months.  While there is expectation to see a rise in figures in October, they have been struggling locally with the effects of exchange rates and local market prices.

On the other hand, China, after shipping an impressive 25.87 million lbs this month, is now up 59% on shipment for the year, although they were seen to start 36% down at the beginning of the year. An extremely strong demand from The Middle East has encouraged a 102% increase over last year, this is mainly due an extremely strong showing from the UAE which shipped 12.68 mm lbs this year vs 4.56 mm lbs last year.

September sales has hit at around 299.53 million lbs. This is a significantly larger increase from last year’s 210.94 million lbs and is the 2nd largest selling month ever. Commitments this time last year stood at 557.18 million lbs while this September is at 664.51 mm lbs. As expected, the result of this means hardly any available inventory, a mere 132.37 million lbs. In fact, inventory is 55.2% less than last year at this time. So, while there’s still room for more sales, September’s performance is well-beyond the market’s expectation of about 200-210 mm lbs.

Assuming a 2.4 billion lbs crop, the industry is now 42% sold of the crop. The industry is now ahead of last year’s commitment pace by nearly 5%.  However, this is more on-par than ahead of pace – the industry was behind pace in August.  Almond prices are also still at higher levels than a year ago, though, and likely to firm further. Almond prices, we believe, are still at levels that have shown to work well for the consumer and today’s report shows that new commitments/sales are ongoing.

date:  Oct 14, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Almond Position Report
by:  Sian Koster category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Hazelnut Market Update

The overall assumption is the local market in Turkey remains firm. TMO and ‘private’ markets are both willing to buy and are absorbing the available volumes. Italy is a very active buyer at present due to their own crop being short. This further increases the demand for Turkish material. Considering the above, the Turkish hazelnut industry is very much on the path to sell this large crop at the current price levels.

The current situation at the Syrian border did raise some concerns in Europe with regards to the hazelnut supply in the coming period. For the major players, this did not come as a surprise and the circumstances were well prepared for. The political division in Brussels and the complexity of the situation. Along with a strong position of Turkey, allow for opinions to be drawn that there is to be no expected direct impact on hazelnut trade between Turkey and Europe. The lira did see a period of weakening last week, however seems to be under control for now.

date:  Oct 11, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Hazelnut Market Update
by:  Sian Koster category:  Latest News Read More

Hazelnut Market Report

Demand:

  • Export: 625-650,000 mt (Exports will be boosted by lack of Italian Hazels, relative competitiveness of the Turkish market vs Caucasus, and the wish for major users to take long cover).
  • Domestic Demand: 100,000 mt
  • TMO/FKB: 100,000 mt in shell (So far, they’ve collected 70/75,000 mt and booked 150/160,000 mt)

Today we see the market in Turkey at between 15.50 and 15.75 TL/kg in shell (31-31.5 TL kernels). This is a minor increase from last week and it is predicted that more supply will be coming into the market and in turn not going to TMO. This gives the private market the opportunity to get ahead of any squeeze on supply next year which may be created by TMO purchases. Hence in the short term we see a stable market around these current levels. At these prices there remains good demand.

Obviously, what remains unknow is currency and ultimately the eventual size of the 2019 crop. Forecasting the crop at present is very problematic, we have seen forecasts being 10% up and down many times!

date:  Oct 04, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Hazelnut Market Report
by:  Sian Koster category:  Latest News Read More