Monthly Archives November 2019

Almond Market Update

The Almond board of California has released the much-anticipated Almond Position report.

The report has shown record shipments of +6.89% in comparison to last year’s 247.1 million pounds.

The industry has been anticipating a record shipment report and this has been attained. Exports have shown to reach 202.95 million pounds

DOMESTIC          +62.55 million pounds                  -8.3 percent

EXPORT                +202.95 million pounds                 +13.4 percent

  • INDIA    +26 mill lbs vs 26.7 mill lbs last year        -16% crop year to date
  • SPAIN  +20.1 mill lbs vs 20.5 mill lbs last year     +4% crop year to date
  • GERMANY  +14.7 mill lbs vs 11.7 mill lbs last year  +28%  crop year to date
  • CHINA/HK  +28.6 mill lbs vs 26.2 mill lbs last year  +29%  crop year to date
  • U A E  +17.5 mill lbs vs 6.8 mill lbs last year           +165% crop year to date
  • TURKEY +11 mill lbs vs 4.2 mill lbs                           +157% crop year to date
  • S KOREA  +6 mill lbs vs 4.9 mill lbs last year          0% difference compared to last year

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:   +609.4 million pounds compared to 570.1 million pounds last year for an increase of +6.89 percent.

  • Americas                             +5 percent
  • Asia                                        +29 percent
  • Europe                                 +25 percent
  • Middle East /Africa          +12 percent

CROP RECEIPTS+1,590 billion pounds compared to 1,553 billion pounds last year for an increase of +2.36 percent.  Most industry experts still predict the crop to reach 2.35 to 2.45 billion pounds, up over the July Objective Crop Estimate of 2.2 billion pounds.

The Californian harvest is now complete, the crops in Bakersfield and Fresno are up, however Modesto and Chico areas are down. Overall it seems the quality is very good.  Fresno and Bakersfield areas have seen lighter colors a lower insect damage, whilst North Modesto areas have seen larger sizes.

October saw record sales, an increase of +6.67% over last year’s 276,509,335 pounds.  The Industry is now sold at +48.7 percent based on a 2.4-billion-pound crop and +52.7 percent sold based on a 2.2-billion-pound crop.

Prices during October climbed on Stds-5% reaching $3.00 per lbs FAS, NP Extra #1 23/25 staying between 3.25-3.30 per lbs FAS, Cal SSR at 3.05- 3.10 FAS, BP SSR at 3.08- 3.12 per lbs FAS, NP Inshell SS 70 at 2.25- 2.30 FAS, and Blanch Slice/Slivers at 3.80 per lbs FAS. The Middle East continues to buy and ship in advance of Ramadan next Spring, resulting in record shipments, to make sure they have enough product in to supply requirements.

On following this, November looks very promising. Expectations show it will be another extremely strong month for shipments.

date:  Nov 13, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Almond Market Update
by:  Sian Koster category:  Latest News Read More

New Crop Cranberry Update

As the cranberry crop draws to completion, it is no surprise to most people that the crop has come in a lot smaller than expected. Nearly all growing regions in north America are down. Most affected being Wisconsin, it has been rumored that the crop is approximately 25% off of the estimate. That’s more than 1 Million barrels less than expected in just one state. The reasons for this loss are mainly down to the cold and wet weather creating & overall poor growing conditions.

Poor growing conditions have also impacted Quebec. The crop is also down significantly, with the worst affected being the Organic crop.

The fruit size has also been acknowledged as small leading to may good quality berries not making it into the bin because of their small size. Although ones that did are still considered smaller than what you expect ‘typical’. The above is good indicator of why the crop volume was less than expected. Better news is the quality does appear to be good, although this is just indicative & will be made clearer when the new crop starts being processed.

As expected, this is already having an impact on pricing.  Concentrate pricing has already moved up to $16.00 per gallon (up from around $14.00).

date:  Nov 13, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on New Crop Cranberry Update
by:  Sian Koster category:  Latest News Read More

Walnut Market Update October 2019

The Walnut board have released the in-demand October shipment report. Total shipments for the month were 93,870 tons, up 2.7% from last year. Total shipments YTD are now 120,102 tons, up 1.7% from last year. Inshell shipments were the star, up 8.2% on the month and 7.8% YTD. Kernel shipments are down 2.5% for the month and down 2.4% YTD. Total receipts are now at 583,199 tons.

Shipments deemed higher than a lot of people predicted. It is now important to consider that the industry is ahead of last year and this year’s crop, potentially 30-60k tons less than last year.

The middle east and Europe, with Turkey, UAE and Germany as the outliers. YTD, the middle east is up 47.1% on inshell and Europe is up 6.87% on inshell and 21.02% on kernels. Germany is up 228% on kernels (down 2.7% on inshell). Although parts of this could be contributed due to them stepping into the market before other regions, it is still very impressive.

Looking at the other major regions, the USA market is nearly flat to last year on kernels. Asia however, was down 62.6% on inshell and 26.7% on kernels.

Since the 2014 crop, the industry has been anywhere from 88.8% – 92.3% received by October 31st.

Processors thoughts are that the numbers are believed to be at the lower end this year. Reasons behind this include the crop starting late but finishing early. A few packers were rumored to be almost fully received by October 31st, with the later ones estimated they were only 90-93% received. Next month’s report however will help clarify crop size.

Landing into the report, we have seen walnuts trading at the following levels: JL Howard at $1.33-1.35, JL Chandler at $1.42-1.43, LHP 20 at $3.25-3.30, LHP 40 at $3.35-3.40, Chandler LHP 20 at $3.35-3.40, Chandler LHP 40 at $3.45-3.50, Chandler LHP 80 $3.80-3.85.

Although the above is a good indication to what degree the market is committed and sold still remains ambiguous, despite this there is indications that packers are ‘historically’ on pace.

date:  Nov 11, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Walnut Market Update October 2019
by:  Sian Koster category:  Latest News Read More

The Current Situation in Chile

The Current Situation in Chile- Exporting Effects

This week marks the third week of strikes and riots occurring across Chile. These strikes have seen violence, arson and looting of private and public property.

All of these proceedings have been occurring alongside with strikes from the main services concerning the export of agricultural products. Ports, highways and government serviced like SAG and customs services have all been affected.

Unions have been supporting the social demands therefore shutting down their operations at the ports. At the present time (TPS) and (STI) are returning to their normal conditions however with caution.

So far, the operations of most dried fruits and nuts companies have seen a decline in terms of production and shipments due to the lack of public transport for their workers, ports, and roads being occasionally closed.

date:  Nov 08, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on The Current Situation in Chile
by:  Sian Koster category:  Latest News Read More