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CALIFORNIA WALNUT REPORT +30% Shipments for December

The Walnut Board of California has released the December Monthly Shipment Report:

December of 2015 compared to December 2014 Shipments– December 2015 shipments were 66,315 Inshell equivalent tons compared to 51,085 Inshell equivalent tons last year. Representing an increase of 30%!

Year to date Shipments 2015/2016 vs. 2014/2015 Marketing Year– Inshell Equivalent Tonnage for the 2015/2016 crop is 274,122  compared to 246,811 last year.  Representing an increase of 27,311 inshell equivalent tons for + 11.0%.

–    North America Shipments – for the month of December 2015 were down 8.0%

–    Export Shipments – for the month of December 2015 were UP 53.0%

 –    Domestic US- Shelled  – for the month of December 2015 were down 11.25%nuts1

–    Europe- Shelled – for the month of December 2015 were  UP 41.06%

–    Middle East/Africa Shelled– for the month of December 2015 were UP 74.92%

–    Asia/Pacific Rim Inshell-– for the month of December 2015 were UP 39.23%

  CROP RECEIPTSReceipts are 598,311 Inshell tons as of December  31st , 2015.  The CASS Crop Estimate was at 575,000 Inshell tons. The actual crop was 3.9% larger than the estimate

Crop –  New crop harvest is complete and the crop receipts  on this report are good indication on overall crop size.

Rain: California continues to receive rain and snow this past week. Parts of the valley are ahead of schedule for rain compared to their annual averages at this time while others are  close to normal.  Snow pack in the mountains continues to grow with each new storm. The meteorologists are predicting another rain storm for Wednesday and then more rain is forecasted for next week.   They are estimating the next storms will bring another inch of rain to the Sacramento area.  The 9th biggest reservoir in California, Folsom Reservoir, raised 28.4 feet in the month of December.

 Pricing  – Pricing has leveled off over the past few weeks, and has been stable. China has been active on inshell and Europe/Middle East has begun to inquire and buy their LHP Chandler and Non-Chandler items.  Packers are in a nice sold position on their LHP Chandler material, especially LHP Chandler 80%, their Inshell Chandler, and Inshell Hartley’s.   The market has been steady on those items.

If you have any demand for any specific items please advise us so we may assist you.

 

date:  Jan 12, 2016 comments:  Comments Off on CALIFORNIA WALNUT REPORT +30% Shipments for December
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Walnuts… thoughts of pacific atlantic

Walnuts:

A Bright spot in the Ag World. Sales have been very good. Currently strong increases in Europe and the Middle East are driving sales. Asia remains on the weak side but we do believe activity will pick up. Korea is getting through their inventory hangover from the excess old crop inventory. Demand appears to be picking up in Korea. Even with the huge declines in China and Vietnam, overall sales are still trending above last year and November had a 14% increase overall.nuts1

Over the past two weeks we have seen Chandler prices start to firm. It is still expected that the Chandler crop will probably be sold out by April/May.

Chandlers right now are trading in the range of $3.00-$3.20 depending on source and quality. Non-Chandler and Combo product will remain weak throughout the year. Another big crop is expected in 2016 so the industry is working hard on advertisement and promotional activity to recover old market shares and generate new demand globally.

 

date:  Dec 15, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Walnuts… thoughts of pacific atlantic
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

California Raisins… thoughts of pacific atlantic

Raisins: 

It looks like the processors and the RBA are close to a 2015 field price. Lion has been pushing for a price close to $1600 and it appears that the RBA is moving towards this level. Lion was concerned over the low prices advertised by National Raisins ($1,000 per ton Base.). Right now it appears that the RBA base price will be around $1402 compared to last year’s base price of $1577.  The National Raisin program at $1.000 base was not warmly accepted by many in the industry.raisins

The $1402 base and with bonuses would gross up to $1600 ($1775 last year). Many RBA boards members were not very happy about this price and there certainly was some very heated arguments between the growers and the packers last week. In general this will make prices around the $1.00 per pound level.

The weakest markets are still in the European community. England has been performing horribly with decreases at -36%, and Germany, the third largest market, down -15%. Overall demand has been weak and Asian markets are down -16% in total, but there have been good increases in the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. US demand has been stagnant. The domestic market shows increases but the increase is primarily attributed to the government purchase for the feed programs. US market remaind very flat and disappointing.

date:  Dec 15, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on California Raisins… thoughts of pacific atlantic
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Almonds… thoughts of empire pacific

Almonds:almond2

The market remains much like a roller coast. Prices go down then quickly go up after a flurry of contracts are done.  There is substantial concern with the continued loss of market share in some markets. Japan has been a bright spot with increases totaling 8% but the rest of Asia is down substantially. Overall , export markets continue to trend downwards. If sales continue the downward trend to -13-15%, the carryout would increase to 676,000,000 pound compared to 408,000,000 last year. This is why we expect prices to move closer to the $3.50. There is a high possibility of a huge crop in 2016 so it would behoove the industry to target a carryout less than last year. We will continue to watch the monthly trends but we do expect this up and down activity to continue throughout the year. Packers who have more of their own production will have more control. We believe it is very important now to take care of customers for tomorrows large crops. Current NPX prices are around $3.90. Cal varieties much less.

date:  Dec 15, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Almonds… thoughts of empire pacific
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Dried Apricots Market Report December 2015

December 2015 Apricot UpdateimagesCAV1SJUY

Shipments in in September were a robust 8,624 tons,  a 65% increase over the 5,205 tons exported the previous year.

Year to date exports are 31,878 tons a 58% increase over the 21,149 tons in the same period last year.

With domestic consumption in addition to the above we have now moved roughly 50% of the available supply, and with 8 months to go until new crop, exports will have to slow considerably.

As we said last month, arrivals in the market in Malatya have slowed to a crawl as growers have now sold all they intend to before the bloom in March/April. Any lots that do come to the market are bought by packers immediately. If exports do not slow, then prices may have to rise.

The banning of imports of dried apricots by Russia will have limited effect, Russia buys mainly for winter seasonal consumption, and much of that has already been shipped, we estimate a further 3,000 tons could have been shipped from now until new crop, some of which may find its way in through the back door in any event.

Prices have remained steady over the past month. The Lira has also remained steady, and is currently at 2.91 to the $.

date:  Dec 09, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Dried Apricots Market Report December 2015
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

South African Dried Fruit Crop Forecast…

Vine Fruit:

 The crop in Upington is progressing very well and another good crop is forecasted.025

Initial indications are that the crop could be around 55 000 tons vs the 60 000 tons produced last year. The harvest time may be earlier than last year, but the weather going forward will be the determining factor.

 

 

Tree Fruit:

The apricot crop will be smaller than previous year , but volumes of peaches and pears will be similar than this year. The mango production area has been affected by hail and 15% of the fresh crop has been damaged. We will see over the next weeks if it will have an impact on the mango being driedapricots as some product destined for the fresh market, may be dried.

date:  Nov 23, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on South African Dried Fruit Crop Forecast…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Pecan market Update…

We are at the beginning fringes of new crop and the field prices have still not dropped. The heavy rains in the Southeast are slowing the receipt of the crop which is forcing the shellers there to buy out of Mexico for near term supply. The shellers in the Southwest are trying to keep their buying to a minimum right now so as to weaken the field prices. This has not worked. So, between the weather and the holiday season buying  the market price has been supported at the prevailing levels.060

We are all keenly aware that the market on almonds and walnuts have had deep corrections. But, the forces that have undermined those two crops have had no bearing on pecans at this point.

*China buying has been steady. Pecans were not a heavily speculated item by the Chinese so the overall slow down in their economy has had a negligible impact on pecans so far.

*The crises in India and Dubai have had no impact on pecans as very little product  sells in these markets.

*The European and USA domestic markets are actively buying

The true direction of this market is dependent upon the crop receipts which will only be known by late Jan/Feb. I believe that this market will hold up until then. I would be more guarded going into late first quarter which is when we will know more when the holiday demand subsides and the crop size is determined.

date:  Nov 19, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Pecan market Update…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More