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Apricot Crop 2015 and Update
Exports in April were a surprisingly robust 5,180 tons compared to 6,750 last year.
Year to date exports are 42,004 tons compared to 95,394 last year.
April exports were very strong, as prices dipped below $6,000 per ton ($2.75 per Lb) in February/March and buyers stepped back into the market. We expect exports to moderate somewhat for the rest of the season as stocks are almost exhausted. We expect total exports for the season to reach 48,000 to 52,000 tons with domestic sales of approximately 6,000 tons. There will be no meaningful carryover.
The Lira has strengthened 10% over the past 2 weeks from 2.85 back to 2.58 today.
We have spent the last weekend visiting the major growing regions. The weather was poor all through the bloom, with rain, unseasonably cool temperatures and a number of frosts.
The most important single growing region is the plains around Malatya, from the Yazihan in the north to the city, and from Akcadag in the west to Kale in the east. This represents around 40% of the total production and is the earlier blooming part of the crop. All of the orchards we visited in this area had been frost affected, with the trees yielding between zero and 30% of a normal yield. Pretty much all of the fruit coming from the Kaba asi variety (large/jumbo fruit). We estimate that this area will produce overall 20% of an optimal crop, a total of 14,000 to 15,000 tons.
The remaining areas are all spotty, nowhere is the crop heavy, in the outlying and higher elevation villages the crop is between 20% and 70% of an optimal yield. Given the wide geographical region, and multiple micro climates/elevations it is difficult to be precise, therefore we estimate the yield in the outlying areas to be between 50% and 60% of normal, giving a crop of between 45,000 and 60,000 tons from these regions.
We are therefore forecasting a total crop of between 59,000 to 75,000 tons (general consensus from packers seems to be between 50,000 and 70,000 tons, we have not heard any estimates of over 80,000 tons).
Organic will be less than 50% of the 2013 availability, as many farms did not pay certification costs last year after the crop disaster, and given that the overall crop is down some 50%.
Sizing will be large, very little fruit smaller than size 4, average probably size 2.
So far quality looks good, no significant hail or speckling.
- Pre the 2014 crop disaster, consumption (domestic and export) had been between 125,000 and 130,000 tons per year at average prices of around $3,300 per ton (SO2 size 4)
- 2014 crop total supply was 55,000 tons, all consumed. Prices opened at $7000, increased to $12,000 before falling back to $6,000 and selling out.
- Total supply is going to be 50% to 60% of a “normal” crop.
- Total supply is going to be only 5,000 to 20,000 tons more than 2014 crop.
- The crop is going to be late, there is going to be strong demand at the opening, especially for organic.
- Organic is currently being negotiated at around $8,000 per ton, which gives a good indication of farmers expectations (deduct 20-25% for conventional).
- Some farmers will sell nothing before bloom in April.
- Some supermarket shelf space has been lost to other products, without a fighting price and large crop, this will not be regained this season.
- There are very uncertain and divisive political tensions in Turkey at the moment which may negatively affect the currency over the summer.
In summary, volatility, with another seriously short crop we face a significant risk that prices rise during the busy August to October period, and if a similar pattern to last year prevails, prices could overshoot on the upside (Turkish specialty…), before correcting when the market slows down in December- January.
Prices seem reasonable to us at the moment, which makes us more than a little apprehensive!
:- Pineapple; raw material today stay high in price. This crop season should be finished within June. Our production try to collect raw material in order to cope with demand during short season, July-September. New pineapple season will be start again in October.
:- Pineapple core will also have same effect. We still limit quantity order of pineapple core per container in order to make sure that we will be able to make our offer of pineapple core throughout the season till October. Price should be stable but slightly shortage may be seen.
:- Papaya natural red; season is now finished. Raw material price was higher during near end season with small quantity available. Expect our raw material should be able to cope with demand until new season start in October. Shortage may be seen if there is high demand than we expect.
:- Mango; season is available now until early June. Same quantity and price as per last year season. Please check and advise demand for special product i.e. Mango slice no sugar added, Mango slice with Juice, or Mango Cheeks as these items need to use fresh raw material and can only be produced during the season.
:- Cantaloupe; currently is low season. We manage to obtain lower price of raw material and can reduce our offer price of this item in order to be more competitive in the market.
:- Coconut; small crop with little higher price of raw material during this period due to hot season in Thailand. However, we will keep our offer price stable for this item unless there is more effect on the raw material which we will keep our customers informed.
:- Jackfruit, seasons is about to start in June. Due to small demand and the fruit is only available once a year. Please advise demand in advance in order us to reserve raw material for your orders.
:- Ginger; our raw material should be able to cope with demand just before new season start in late August if there is no high demand than we expect.
:- Guava; We expect no shortage due to small demand for this item. Price fluctuation may be seen along the year depend on raw material price.
:- Rambutan, raw material is running low. Please check demand before confirm order. New season will be start in June.
:- Strawberry, new season from is now start and the crop will be last within June / early July. Offer price from supplier this year is the same level as last year, The first shipment from supplier to our factory should be during June. We will check and see the quality and will make offer price accordingly for new crop.
:- Peach, we reserve same quantity as last year. Stable price. Master contract should be considered in order to reserve raw material. New season will be in late July/August.
:- Kiwi, Apple and Pear season are finished. We reserve raw material with same quantity as last year. A little increase of raw material price.
April of 2015 compared to April 2014– April 2015 shipments were 39,732 Inshell equivalent tons compared to 34,906 Inshell equivalent tons last year. Representing a increase of 12% (4,826 tons).
Domestic Shipments – for the month of April 2015 were down -6%
YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS– Shipments through April 30th of 2015 were up +1 % overall compared to last year. Total Shipments are 412,196 Inshell equivalent tons.
EXPORT SHIPMENTS– Shipments are slightly up compared to last year. Current year to date export shipments are 279,953 Inshell tons; compared to last year at 273,059 Inshell tons, representing increase of + 2.5%.
DOMESTIC SHIPMENTS– Shipments are slightly down compared to last year at the same time. Current year to date domestic shipments are 132,243 tons; compared to last year at 134,975 Inshell tons, representing a slight decrease of -2%.
U.S. – The domestic market was down – 6% for the month of April due to a decrease in kernel shipments.
Europe- Had increased shipments of Inshell shipments due to the Netherlands and Spain. Germany shipped 707,439 more pounds of kernels compared to April of 2014. UK also had increased kernel shipments for the month.
Middle East/Africa – Shipments increased on both Inshell and kernels for the month. Turkey represented the increased Inshell shipments shipping 1,123,796 Inshell pounds compared to 705,472 pounds last April. Overall the kernel shipments were also up compared to last year. Israel accounted for most of the kernel shipments and nearly doubled the previous April numbers, this year Israel shipped 730,000 lbs compared to 383,900 lbs last year.
Asia/Pacific – Was up on both Inshell and kernels. Increase was mainly due to the port strike that was finally cleared up. Inshell shipments were up over 4 million pounds and kernel shipments were up nearly 3 million pounds.
CROP RECEIPTS– Receipts are 562,504 Inshell tons as of April 30th , 2015, which should represent the entire crop. The CASS Crop Estimate is at 545,000 Inshell tons.
Demand has been sporadic with some export countries coming in to book some tonnage along with some U.S. customers looking to secure the remaining needs for this crop year. Now is a good time to book your needs especially if you require Chandler high half count material.
Prices We expect market to remain to remain sloppy as it continues to try and establish a floor on certain items. The high half count Chandler material should remain firm for the remaining crop year. We will continue to keep you updated on new crop as the season progresses.
Turkish Dried Apricots Crop 2015 season is approaching . Before we start to talk about new crop , I believe we need to argue the situation of Crop 2014 Season which will lead all of us to take the right decisions.
End of March 2013 we had severe frost damage in Malatya. Experienced growers state that it was the worst of many years in Malatya . Majority of the Crop has been damaged . Official Crop estimate of 2014 season was 8210 ton which we believe was a very optimistic estimation .
So far in Crop 2104 season Turkey exported ( Whole , Ind, Diced ) more than 40.000 tons of Dried Apricots . We must also reckon in that , in this period about 5000 tons consumed in domestic market . We had main dried fruit consumption month of Ramadan ( it was in end of June and in July ).
Turkey export 3000- 5000 tons of fruit monthly and we have two more months until new crop . We must also note that we have another Ramadan until new Crop ( Mid June / Mid July )
If we even consider that Official Estimate of Crop 2014 was correct , according to the above figures and facts we can say that Turkey will begin new crop season with almost no carry over stocks from previous seasons .Nearly all Dried Apricots will be consumed in Domestic Market or will be exported . Remaining fruit can not be considered as for human consumption because our very poor quality .
Due to price and quality concerns all importers reduced their import quantities so we can easily say that also importers and supermarket shelf’s will begin new crop without any stock .
Crop 2105 season will be an interesting season . No stocks , empty markets and it looks that all other dried fruit prices will be high ( Raisins / Dried Figs / Prunes ) at least at the beginning .
Offical Crop estimation will be declared very soon . As soon as we receive it we will share our expectations about Crop 2015 seasons
Almond Market Summary May 12, 2015
We are pleased to provide the below almond market summary in response to the April shipping figures released by the Almond Board today. Our sales team is available to answer any questions, sales inquiries, or offer more detailed market analysis.
The Almond Board released its April 2015 Industry Position Report today, shipments for the month were 151.090 mil lbs versus 137.724 mil lbs in April 2014. Uncommitted inventory is 393 mil lbs versus 434 mil. US shipments had a solid month shipping 58.7 mil vs. 50.87, Exports were 92.35 mil vs. 86.85 mil. India (9.78 mil vs. 5.9 mil), Western Europe (39.76 mil vs. 35.50 mil), and China/HK (6.081 vs. 3.369) all helped with the increase in export shipments.
It has been a busy two weeks since CASS released the Subjective Almond Crop Estimate on May 5 and today’s shipping figures. Although the estimate of 1.85 bil. lbs was largely viewed as neutral by both sellers and buyers, we have seen continued price increases in both old and new crop offers. This was largely due to strong demand from Europe, fueled by a more favorable exchange rate, especially for STDs and sized Cals, which are proving difficult to source. Current STDs were reportedly traded yesterday at 4.51 FAS, with only a small increase in price for sized Cals and Carmels.
Reports vary slightly depending on location/water availability, but the general consensus on new crop is NP inconsistent, while most pollinators look above average. With almost no current crop NP Inshell left in inventory, Indian buyers have shown strong interest in new crop. Recent sales for September shipment have reported as high as 3.61 FAS 70% SS ($5.157 Kernel price). There has been a slight discount for new crop Cals/STD with very few offers, new crop NP kernels have been at the same level as current crop. New crop STD demand has been around 4.40-4.45, with sellers asking a few cents higher.
We expect this firming trend to continue for the near future.
Please let us know your needs so we can assist accordingly, our almonds buyer can by contacted via;
Today sees high prices on the market for current crop 2014, and now, farmers have starting planting. For sale pumpkin seed, shine skin seed has increased by 30% planting, compare with last year, shine skin seed planting area is more than a lot of the GWS planting areas, reasons are as follow;
1/ shine skin seed have high output compare with GWS, economic benifit is higher than GWS
2/ shine skin seed have big domestic market for roasting and this demand is also on an increasing trend this year to replenish the lack of availability of watermelon seed.
So, we think, although shine skin seed planting area will increase this year, from May to Sep, there is lack of stock for both china and export, after new crop harvest, price will be not cheap at the beginning. We suggest , not to rush in and purchase stock materials at the beginning , high risk, just have order to book it.
Meanwhile, shine skin seed price will affect GWS price, sometimes, they can replace each other, if shine skin seed increase, GWS will follow, opposite, if fall down, GWS also.
Please discuss any enquiries with Hugh…
By 02.05.2015, The exported quantity has reached up to 185.933 tons with an average price of 1.795 usd / ton.
Last year (2013 crop) during the same period of time the exported quantity was 120.042 tons with an average price of 2.605 usd / ton.
On a “weekly basis” , during the Calendar Week (CW) 18, 2015 (last week) ; 3.688 tons was exported with a weekly average price of usd 1.777 / ton.
During the Calender Week (CW) 18 , 2014 ; 2.946 tons was shipped with a weekly average price of 2.388 usd / ton.
Below PDF you will find the export figures ( yearly / weekly ) of crop 2014
>>>>Turkish Sultanas & Raisins Export Report – 02 05 2015<<<< Click here to view
For any further information about the Turkish Sultanas / Raisins industry, please don’t hesitate to contact us
Turkish Dried Apricots
Due to excessive rains and frost (warm temperatures during the day followed by cold periods at night) last year the harvesting did not go efficient and there was not enough good quality availability. These damages led to high prices. Because of the carryover from last season combined with reaction to high prices from importers, demand had stopped and caused a shift in the purchase of the different sizes. People that used to buy #1 and #2 are now mostly buying #3 and #4. It is expected that the remaining apricots will cover the needs until new crop, and that the new season will start at tradable levels.
This year the new crop is suffering again from frost, luckily far less then last year. The weather conditions turned quite unusual and the temperatures were lower than the seasonal averages for Malatya this year. Farmers are determined to protect their trees with extra measures since they absolutely cannot afford a consecutive year of loss.
The critical period is expected to continue till the end of the month, but although packers are anxious following serious crop damage last season, most industry experts believe there will still be a relatively good crop of Turkish apricots this year. Exports of Turkish apricots have reached around 37,000 ton which is almost half the quantity for the same period last year at over 89,000 ton. The sales however for this year is predicted at a total export quantity of 50,000 ton.
Prices of Turkish apricots had started to reduce but this trend has now stopped as packers wait to see further developments. The prices are now acceptable, but we expect that these will rise in June before the new crop come out. The view on the new crop will be much clearer in June. For now, we expect that harvesting will occur per mid July.
Our Apricots buyer James Weaire can assist you with any further information and enquiries…
The subjective production forecast for the 2015 California almond crop is 1.85 billion pounds, according to a survey conducted by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Forecasted production is 1 percent below last year’s production of 1.87 billion pounds and 8 percent below 2013’s production of 2.01 billion pounds. Forecasted bearing acreage for 2015 is 890 thousand. The subjective production forecast is based on a telephone survey conducted from April 14 to April 29 from a sample of almond growers. Of the 485 growers sampled, 328 reported. Acreage from these reports accounted for 29 percent of the total bearing acreage.
The California almond bloom began in early February. The 2015 bloom was one of the earliest almond blooms in memory. In general, the bloom was fast and compact with Monterey and Fritz blooming earlier than Nonpareils. In several instances, the lower two-thirds of trees blossomed two weeks ahead of the top possibly indicating insufficient chilling hours. Nonpareil set appears to be less than optimal while pollinators were reported as looking good overall. Nuts were sizing well with the crop pace at least two weeks ahead of normal and also ahead of last year’s early crop. Insect pressure may exceed last year but remains manageable. Water is a problem for many growers with limited amounts available for purchase. Growers irrigating with well water expressed concern regarding salinity.
Please find below PDF Reports:
Almond Forecast 2015 < CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Almond Crop Estimate 2015 < CLICK HERE TO VIEW