The Almond Board of California has released the August Position Report with shipments tallying +154.2 million pounds compared to 168.5 million pounds last year for a -8.5% percent decrease.
The August shipments had been expected to be lower than last year as harvest was off to a slower start this season combined with the later Diwali Holiday so India was not pushing as hard for early shipments and impacts of the international tariffs and currency issues impacting many countries.
YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS: 1st month of the season with shipments at 154.2 million pounds compared to 168.5 million pounds last year for a decrease of -8.5 percent. Thanks
- INDIA- +8%- +22.2 million pounds versus 20.4 million lbs last year
- China – +3%- 4.6 million versus 4.4 million lbs last year
- Spain- – 30% 12.3 million lbs versus 17.5 million last year
- Germany- -40%- 6.3 million lbs versus 10.5 million last year
- U A E- -42% 1.2 million lbs versus 2.0 million lbs last year
- Turkey- -77% 731K versus 3.1 million lbs last year
The industry is now at a 20.8% sold percent for the new crop and 24.3% sold on total marketable( new crop plus carry -in). Total commitments are at 515 million pounds versus 677 million pounds last year. Overall new sales are lower than in past years. New sales in August were +238 million pounds.
- The 1 euro is at 1.16 dollars.
- Rupee is at 72.59 to the 1 dollar.
- Yuan is at 6.87 to 1 dollar.
- Turkish Lira at 6.43 lira to 1 dollar
NASS has the crop estimate at 2.45 billion pounds for 2018.
Harvest has been somewhat eventful. The crop came in much slower and receipts for the 2nd year in a row are behind pace. This is a sign of a later harvest than last year and even behind normal or averages harvest times. Receipts haven’t lagged this far behind since August of 2012. We have heard some chatter insect damage concerns and low NP yields – mostly geared in the western valley. The insect damage on received goods is lower than last year but still high at 1.76%. Generally, California should have no issues handling the insect levels as most simple plants have plenty of lasers and a lot insect can be pulled out at the sheller. You will notice most of your inshell will have rates at or above 2%. Normally we would see packers be careful offering NPX material but the need for sales outweighs the concern for quality. Sizing seems to be uneventful, with most of the state report much smaller than normal NP. Most believe the NP crop to be behind last year at this point. However, most packers we talk to aren’t reporting 3rd leaf or the gear up in young trees which is so critical to guesstimate crop sizing. Nonetheless, harvest results range wildly in places and overall it does seem there are more reports of down than up. California type harvest is in full swing, we do not have any detailed results yet but we have heard reports all over the board. At the end of the day it is simply too early to draw conclusions.
Most are expecting the September shipments to be off slightly due to the impact of currency and tariffs affecting many markets. Some packers are reporting being full for their September and October productions schedules while others do have space in October for new contracts.