Author Archives Chris Wilding

Widespread frost is forecast through the apricot growing regions from tonight

It is anticipated that 30% of bloom has set, leaving fruit-lets that are highly susceptible to frost, even -1 or -2 C can cause damage.

30% of trees are in full bloom leaving them susceptible to frost damage if temperatures fall below -3 C. 

The balance not yet in bloom but expected to bloom in the next few days.

Forecast is for temperatures in the orchards to fall below zero each night for the next 5 nights with Sunday being the coldest.

Various forecasts for Sunday night

Area                      Deg C                    State of the bloom

Akcadag               -4                                            50% in open

Baskil              -5                                 All open or set

Battalgazi       -3                                 All open or set

Darende         -4                                 30% open

Dogansehir    -6                                 Mostly not yet open

Hekimhan      -5                     Mostly not yet open

Malatya          -4                                 All open or set

Puturge          -4                                 Mostly open or set

Yazihan           -2                                 50% open

Supply and demand were well matched for the past 2 seasons and no carryover was expected. No offers are available in the market today

date:  Mar 22, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Widespread frost is forecast through the apricot growing regions from tonight
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

California Almond Board has released the February Almond Position

The Almond Board of California has released the February Almond Position Report with shipments of  +186.9 million pounds compared to 190.1 million pounds last year for a decrease of  1.7% percent.

Domestic Shipments      +58.71 million pounds   +8.7% ( new record)

Export Shipments:          +128.54 million pounds                -5.7%

The crop year to date shipments from August through February are at 1.403 billion pounds compared to  1.422 billion pounds last year for a decrease of 1.29 percent. CThe Crop Receipts are now at  +2.262 billion pounds compared to 2.250 billion pounds last year for a small increase of +0.52 percent.. 

For the past four weeks all eyes have been on the Almond Bloom in California.  The weather was less than ideal, with cooler temperatures and heavy rainfall occurring.    The cold weather prolonged the bloom by at least an extra week in some parts of the valley.  Heavy rains delayed the bloom as well.  Positive point is the ground is well saturated (wet) and the trees will work less to pull up moisture from the ground for the coming weeks as the leaves and nutlets develop.  In the Sacramento area, this season we have received over 20.25 Inches of rain, our normal for this time of the year is only 14.47 inches and last year to this date we had only received 10.48 inches of rain!  Snow Pack in the Sierra are +150% to +160% of normal for this time of the year.  Parts of Lake Tahoe received over 25 feet of snow in February alone( over 8 meres of snow in 1 month)!  Bee Flight hours were less than ideal for the State with the cooler weather and rains.  The North part of the State was impacted the most with limited Bee Flight Hours while the Southern part of the State to a lesser degree.  Keep in mind the Independence Variety does not require any bees for pollination. During the month of February, overall market had steady activity,  as buyers were waiting to see the results of the bloom and growers were concerned with selling while the bloom received too much rain and cool weather.  Prices on Stds and small Cal SSR all climbed upwards with Stds reaching $2.80 FAS and NP X 23/25 at $3.10 per lbs FAS.  Limited new crop demand/ sales took place as well.  The industry is now 74% sold on salable crop and carry in.  New sales during February were 149,978,326 pounds.

date:  Mar 12, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on California Almond Board has released the February Almond Position
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Record January Californian Almonds Shipments

The Almond Board of California has released the Position Report with shipments of  209.61 million lbs   compared to 193.50 million   pounds last year for an Increase of  8.3% and a New Record.

DOMESTIC:  Shipped 64.30 million lbs for an increase of 8.5% over last year

EXPORT:   Shipped 144.31 million lbs for an increase of 8.2% over last year.

Western Europe    –   down 7 million lbs for January      

Middle East   –       up 10 million lbs for January           

India          –               up 7 million lbs for January       

China/HK-  down 5 million lbs for January

Vietnam    –     flat

UAE     –      up 5 million lbs for January                        

1.21 Billion pounds compared to 1.23  billion million pounds last year for a decrease of -1.23% compared to last year. The crop receipts are now at 2.25  billion pounds.  With approx. 96% of the inventory in,  we could expect a final crop of 2.27- 2.28 billion lbs. With the crop being close in size to last year, we do expect there to be a tight transition on many items again this summer.   

  • 1.13 Euro equals 1.00   dollars
  • 1 Dollar equals  5.25  Turkish Lira
  • 1 Dollar equals  70.56  India Rupee
  • 1 Dollar equals  6.77  Chinese Yuan

During the past month, sales were strong with new sales in January at 179 million pounds.   Small sized Cals and Stds 5% continue to be high high demand for prompt shipments.   Small sized Butte/Padre SSR are in short supply and currently are priced higher than Large Sized Carmel SSR.  Right now, Butte/Padre SSR 36/40 is trading at a higher premium than Carmel SSR 23/25 AOL.   Some growers are now considering planting butte /padre with the continued premium these varieties are generating based on its current demand. Ramadan sales are almost finished due to the tight window to ship and have them arrive in time for the Ramadan Holiday.    This could put some pressure on NP’s and Independence. California has been enjoying some solid rains and snow  in January and Early February.   During the previous 7-10 days , the Sierra Mountains have gained 8- 10 feet, YES FEET in some areas.  Over this past weekend, they gathered another 3-4 feet in snow.  Many of the reservoirs in California are starting to let out some water, to get ready for the run off starting in March/April/May.  California is now at 100 percent of average Snowfall for this time of the year.  

The bloom as started in some areas of California.  We hearing from many growers in North, Middle and South that some of their trees are starting to bloom across the state.  We feel approx. 5% of  California is in bloom. California will be experiencing rain during this bloom period and  we do expect the growers to be watching the bee flight and activity very closely.  We expect the bloom to fully get started over the next 7-10 days and will be able to provide updates along the way.

date:  Feb 12, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Record January Californian Almonds Shipments
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

South African Field Report 8.2.19

Vine fruit

Weather conditions have been very good until first week February. Rain is forecasted for the next few days and it may reduce the crop size. Impact on quality will depend on the period the product will be exposed to the rain. We will provide update soonest.

The product that has been dried is of excellent quality, but the crop is two weeks later than PY, therefore the next few weeks are critical . Rain is the last thing that the farmers and packers need at this stage of the crop.

The size of the crop seems to be smaller than 2018 and is estimated to be around 65 000 tonnes. The currant crop in Vredendal will be even smaller than PY and the impact of the drought still evident. The volumes of the lighter product in color , particularly golden sultanas will be significantly lower, mainly due to the high prices being offered for TSR to farmers. Farmers were therefore inclined to dry more TSR and less goldens. At this stage less than 3% of the product has been delivered, but by end February one should have a better idea of volumes and availability.

Prices to farmers are at record levels in Rand terms.

Tree fruit

The sugar levels of the apricots are not as high as previous years and the weight per fruit as a result is lower. The apricot crop therefore again in very short supply. The volumes of Elberta peaches and pears also lower due to low prices offered to farmers.

date:  Feb 11, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on South African Field Report 8.2.19
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Californian Walnuts… The January 2019 shipments versus the January 2018 shipments on an inshell equivalent were up 28%

WALNUT MARKET AND CROP UPDATE- January 2019

Domestic – January 2019 shipments versus 2018 shipments  on an inshell equivalent were up 26%

Export – January 2019 shipments versus 2018 shipments on an inshell equivalent were up 28.5% .

Key Market Shipments:  January 2019 versus January 2018

Inshell UAE: 13.75 Million vs 2.59 Million for an increase of +429%!!!

Inshell Pakistan: 1.99 Million vs 0 lbs

Shelled Germany:  5.24 Million vs 6.09 Million for a decrease of 14%

Inshell Turkey: 15.21 Million vs 7.1 Million for increase of +114%

Crop Size: Crop size, and Final size, is 672,723 tons. 

Market: Shipments were going to be strong by the lack of availability for January shipments in December but this exceeded many expectations. Middle East had massive shipments with strong Ramadan purchasing. Dubai shipped almost 14 million lbs in January!! Incredible. Reports from Dubai are that sales continue to be strong, they still want more for First half March but inventory in CA is extremely low. We do not expect February to be much different as packers have had full February packing schedules since early January.

Prices: When prices in October/Early November reached their lows, global consumption  picked up and prices have increased ever since. Inventory on all varieties of inshell and Chandler kernels are low, pricing reflects the low inventory. Jumbo Large Chandler remains around 1.18 FAS, however Chile has started to sell inshell for End of March forward shipments and most middle east customers have switched to focusing on Chilean. Chandler kernels have seen a sharp increase in past 2 weeks, packers who do have inventory are taking advantage and offering at 3.20-3.25 FAS.

Chilean: Middle East and Turkey have shown strong demand, especially for End of March or beginning April shipments.

date:  Feb 11, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Californian Walnuts… The January 2019 shipments versus the January 2018 shipments on an inshell equivalent were up 28%
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Raw cashew nut 2019 crop scenario:

Crop reports are coming in globally – Some places early and most places a good crop.

At new crop raw cashew prices the processing parity of cashews is coming to 3.60 USD/lb

The prices are expected to move southwards and therefore larger processors are willing to sell April /May /June positions close to 3.55-3.60 USD/lb (some may be at 3.51). There is no raw material in the processing warehouses . It will start arriving in March and April.

Processors have not contracted raw cashew nut as they do not have enough sales in the books so they want to put some sales in the books.

Many buyers of kernels  have made their purchase hand to mouth.

Kernel price movement and volatility 

10-20 cents is the impact loss each time market sentiment changes. A lot of kernel in oct contracted at 3.30-3.40… many contracts were defaulted as markets quickly rose to 3.70 levels.

Large traders are short and they are now trying to push the market down and then cover.

Price View  :

Vietnam market is skewed to USA and China as they constitute 80% of the demand.

In USA the trading houses  have taken shorts from Jan to June .

Chinese demand comes in after one month of the new year and they will be in the market some time first half March .

date:  Jan 28, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Raw cashew nut 2019 crop scenario:
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Seeds Update

Linseed

Market is just starting to get a bit tighter in terms of available unsold raw material. Stocks in Western Europe are very low with deliveries into processors really starting to slow up. Every pre-supplier is struggling to get linseed into Europe ant they are now starting to have to pay a premium for prompt shipments. Y-O-Y costing has been hit by increases in the cost of paper and transport costs (mainly fuel driven). Paper bags went up in price with 10% in 2019 & transport rates went up with 5% in 2019. Our supplier is reporting they have product unsold but enquiries are starting to trickle in for Q3/Q4 and that they’ll start to see pressure on their unsold material as we get closer to Q2.

Hulled Millet

We are expecting the market to remain difficult throughout the crop. Buyers have been trying to source better prices from across USA, Poland & Ukraine, and now many origins now have very limited volume remaining. Packers in USA are reporting a full forward book for 2/3 months when previously they had spare capacity for prompt shipments, this is likely to get worse as shipments from Ukraine & Poland slow down with available material really drying up. A hot summer will continue to put pressure on European harvest as we experienced with last year. Prices are only expected to continue to rise in the coming months.

Sunflower

Market has been fairly flat recently however we are seeing some additional demand from China. The expectation is that the market would expect to remain fairly stable at around €620/mt FOB with only currency variations really pushing prices up.

Pumpkin

It is apparent that the demand for pumpkin seeds, especially for European markets, is currently slow however other markets such as Indian and America continues to have strong demand. At present the raw material availability is starting to tighten but packers are actively chasing new business and as such are offering competitively against each other in the hope of securing sales before the expected squeeze on raw material strikes. The coming months we are expecting the prices to rise steadily. Domestic use of material for the roasted industry is increasing year on year with this now showing the initial signs of putting genuine pressure on the quantity that China will be able to export.

Poppy

Prices rose sharply during 2018 hitting all time highs. Problem is though, that while these price levels indeed have been noted, availability is still very scarce, so demand keeps on constantly exceeding supply, certainly at the current levels and most probably also at, again, a tick higher levels. Demand remains healthy, with prices being adjusted by the week and all over the globe, where fresh inquiries are landing more and more in the EU from the other continents as well, which resulted in a solid floor under, as well as being further supportive to, the current price levels.  

date:  Jan 21, 2019 comments:  Comments Off on Seeds Update
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Market Update Dehydrates from Thailand

Pineapple

We are right now in the middle of winter crop period , the price of fresh pineapple this week is about Bht2.70-3.50/kg. Still the price is in the low level, regardless of low supply available in the industry. This is assumed to be caused by relatively low demand of Thailand canned pineapple still during this period. The winter crop is expected to last until this coming February 2019. Summer crop 2019 is too early to be expected but we have seen the reducing number of plantations throughout this year.

Consequently, with low level of fruits supply, it has already affected the shortage of core pineapple in the market from now up till Jan./Feb.2019.  We’ll recommend customers to be careful for the available supply again for pineapple during Feb onward.

Papaya

We are now in the peak season of papaya which is normally during Oct- Jan. but the supply is extremely lower than the demand in the market.  Fresh papaya price has gone up now to Bht11-12/kg.  and even at this price, it’s still difficult to obtain the supply in the market. In term of the quality, it seems the colour of papaya is also paler than usual. Consequently, we expect the price of papaya would remain relatively firm throughout the first 3 quarters of 2019.

Mango

It’s the season of winter mango season now where normally the price is more expensive than the main crop in summer.  The price of mango during this winter is approximately 10% more expensive than the same period of last year, mainly due to the strong demand of fresh mango by Vietnamese market. 

For next summer crop 2019, it’s still early to predict because there are about 2-3 months to go and it depends also for the demand of fresh mango in our neighbouring countries. We should be able to get clearer picture of the situation around February 2019 and will keep you updated.

Ginger

The crop of ginger was already over since last October 2018. The price of fresh ginger was also about 70% more expensive than last year crop and with the big rainfall during the 3rd quarter of this year, it damaged badly to the fresh ginger.  It consequently affects to the quality of ginger.

date:  Dec 04, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Market Update Dehydrates from Thailand
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Turkish Apricot Update November 2018

  • Exports in October were 11,097 tons, compared to 11,825 tons last year, a decrease of 6%
  • Exports year to date are 29,575 tons compared to 30,164 tons last year, a decrease of 1.6 %
  • Average export price for whole apricots for October was $2695 ton FOB compared to $2924 average for 2017 crop.

Export figures were in line with expectations. Prices are still lower than last year, and crop size and characteristics are the same as last year, and exports are running very much in line with last year. Prices reflect the weaker Lira earlier in the season when many contracts were booked. Subsequently the Lira has continued to strengthen, and is now trading at 5.44 to the $, a gain of 10% over the month and over 20% since the lows during the summer when  much of the fruit was contracted. Packers who did not cover both their fruit and their currency in August are now facing big losses. Some contracts are being delayed.

The banks continue to restrict access to credit, or are making it very expensive, interest rates for Lira loans are over 30% whereas $ based export credits cost between 9 and 14% depending on the bank. There are a number of packers who are now forced to look to growers to finance their raw materials, always a ominous sign. The strengthening Lira, mainly attributed to improving international relationships particularly with the USA, may take some of the pressure off the banks balance sheets and allow them to refinance their foreign currency loans, but inflation is still rising and reached 25% in October, so the crisis is not over yet, and the risk of renewed pressure on the Lira is significant.

Growers have now sold the majority of their fruit, those who have not in the main will hang on to it until bloom. Prices of quality fruit, in particular large fruit continue to increase both in Lira terms and in $ terms. A differential of $2000 per ton between size 1 and size 4 has developed.

date:  Nov 12, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Apricot Update November 2018
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More

Almond Board October shipment figures

Today the Almond Board released the October shipment figures at a very impressive 247.11 mm lbs – much above expectations. This is 0.3% from last October and now sets the bar as an all-time record for the industry. Domestic shipments were stellar, up 6.7% at 68.18 mm lbs while export shipments were down 2.0% at 178.93 mm lbs.

In anticipation of the report most observers were speculating a 220-230 mm lbs shipment figure and forecasting sales seemingly flat to last year.  Overall, there were many up and downs in regional shipments, but the most significant performances can be seen below:

  • China shipments are down 8.74 mm lbs, down 25% for the month and 31% for the year.
  • Vietnam shipments are up 5.94 mm lbs, up 74% for the month and up 31% for the year.
  • India shipments are down 2.86 mm lbs, down 10% for the month although still up 3% on the year.
  • Western Europe is up 5.11 mm lbs, up 9% for the month and down 5% for the year.
  • The Middle East is still under performing, down 7.19 mm lbs for the month and down 43% on the year.

Possibly the most predictable parts of the report were easily anticipated, however, China and Vietnam performed much better than anticipated leaving the region down approximately 3 million lbs down for the month.  Obviously the grey market channel seems to be mostly alive and well with few hindrances.

India, though anticipated, was weaker during October.  With Diwali behind them prices quickly capitulated and confidence wavered.

Europe, who up to the report was still fixated on nearby shipments, has continued to improve performance.

Ahead of the report shipments were expected to be the nuance of the report.  To buyers dismay, new commitments stole the limelight at a staggering 276.5 million lbs!  However, despite the staggering figures, commitments and shipments still lag behind historical averages and are actually more in line with the infamous 2015 crop year pace.   Nonetheless we would be foolish to say that the hand-to-mouth momentum has seemingly favoured growers, mostly.

Recent crop size conversations have focused on poor crop yields.  The crop size potential is now rumoured to be in the 2.30-2.35 bb lb range, perhaps still too early for consensus.  This has not yet been reflected in any receipt figures to date.  In fact receipts during October were an impressive 720 million lbs.  Larger sized huller and shellers mostly expected the heavy receipts, saying with the exception of the late crop and a few stick tights the crop has been hulled and shelled very quickly.  Generally it does seem the hulling season is wrapping up faster than normal.  Overall looking into receipts by variety there aren’t too many surprises.

Moving forward it’s hard not to see a hearty November shipment report.  The question again remains: how will sales be for the month?  If confidence is reciprocated from buyers we might see a surge of demand to book up through the end of the year.  In fact, domestic buyers appear to be on the heels of last year’s commitments and shipments slightly ahead.  It’s the export buyers who’s currencies, economies, and trade norms have been volatile that behind.

Prices have largely been flat during October and only very recently showed signs of wavering.  In fact, coming into the month (and last month for that matter) it appeared prices were hanging on (perhaps by a string) – this report will reinforce seller confidence.  Prior to the release of the report standard 5% were trading near $2.35, Cal SSR 27/30 $2.50-3, NPX 23/25 $2.96-98 and Nonpareil inshell around $2.10/lb.

Overall the industry ‘needed’ a strong month to keep market fundamentals in check.  There are still questions to be answered, i.e., will China keep performing, will the Mid-East ever catch up, and what will the final crop amount to?  Needless to say, another report or two like October might create a few other interesting questions…

date:  Nov 12, 2018 comments:  Comments Off on Almond Board October shipment figures
by:  Chris Wilding category:  Latest News Read More