Today our shipper returned back from a field tour through the south Bulgarian growing areas. He has seen a lot of poor fields with low yield expectation due to very dry and hot weather. The Bulgarian officials have reduced their new crop estimation down to 1,3 Million tons comparing with 2 Million tons in 2014. The harvest will start soon during week 33 ( 10.08.-16.08.2015 ) in the south of Bulgaria. The harvest will be at least 2 – 3 weeks later in the North of Bulgaria and in the south of Romania. The raw material quality is been expected very good because of the hot and dry weather. Sunflower will be shelled easier when the product is dry. Framers return per hectare / acre will be less than 2014 because of the reduced yields. Therefore framers asking already a higher price for new crop raw material.
We expecting further increases and do not share the still floating opinion in the market that prices will come down in September 2015. Worldwide demand for sunflowers is too strong and the shortage for the old crop will push the new crop as well. Beside of the sunflower situation we also have lower rape seed and linseed crops. Therefore vegetable oil markets are also firmer.
In Nut shell the low crop expectation for sunflowers in the Black Sea – Area, the current shortage for old crop in combination with firmer vegetable oil markets will end up in a firmer market prospect.