Californian Raisins Carry out estimates down sent to us by Fresh Pacific…

Californian Raisins Carry out estimates down sent to us by Fresh Pacific…

posted by: Simon Heather date: Jun 15, 2015 category: Latest News comments: Comments Off on Californian Raisins Carry out estimates down sent to us by Fresh Pacific…

Exports are trending down at 21% and overall the sales are down 11%. With the reduced crop size the July 31, 2015 carryout should be about 100,000 tons. This carry out is about 23% less than last year which will give a good balance start to the 2015 crop.ingredients1

Packers appear to be more inclined to maintain the same grower price as last and very dedicated to firming up their selling prices. The 2015 crop does appear to have more mildew and mold problems created by the high humidity and light rains that occurred in May. Not enough rain to put a dent  in the drought but enough to be a nuisance for growers. We are recommending to several of our suppliers to continue purchasing 2014 crop for it may be a better quality overall than the early  2015 crop. The 2015 crop is still being projected to be over 300,000 tons. The wineries have advised growers that they have no interest in raisin varietal grapes from the approaching crop. This will put more acreage devoted to raisin production and offset the impact of the pullouts that were executed this year.

You will see in the report that there is a significant amount “Other Seedless” that will be carried into the 2015 crop year. We do expect to see some good pricing for this type of raisins. Possible price levels could be well  below $1.00 for this type of raisins.

 

                                   RAISIN INDUSTRY POSITION REPORT
                               Month: April 2013/14 and 2014/2015
NTS NTS DIPPED DIPPED GOLDEN GOLDEN ZANTE ZANTE OTHER OTHER
13-14 14-15 13-14 14-15 13-14 14-15 13-14 14-15 13-14 14-15
Packer Inventory 1 August 132,407 138,215 1,576 1,341 4,917 7,116 2,353 1,858 4,107 5786
USDA Certified Deliveries to Processors 16-May 345,684 298,017 5,050 3,907 21,228 19,034 2,651 3,069 10,045 13793
USDA Certified Deliveries to Processors  July 31 19,109 tba -125 tba 174 tba 234 tba 424 tba
Total Available Inventory 497,200 436,232 6,501 5,248 26,319 26,150 5,238 4,927 14,576 19579
Sales through May 31 31-May -285,868 -255,166 -2,258 -1,854 -14,883 -16,420 -2,493 -2,058 -7,399 (7683)
Processing Losses -17,152 -15,310 -135 -111 -893 -985 -499 -412 (444) (461)
Total Available Inventory May 31 31-May 194,180 165,756 4,108 3,283 10,543 8,745 2,246 2,457 6,733 11,435
Additional Sales through July 31 31-Jul -59,718 tba -1,297 -2,746 tba -380 -1,004 tba
Processing Losses -3,583 tba -78 -165 tba -76 -60 tba
Total Available Inventory July 31 31-Jul 130,879 tba 2,733 tba 7,632 tba 1,790 tba 5,669 tba

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