Turkish Apricots Market Update
G.Buttner & Co. B.V.
De Korf 54
2924 AH Krimpen aan den IJssel
The bloom for crop 2015 apricots was not satisfiying due to continuous frosts and heavy rains during March – April months. The weather conditions went quite unusual and the temperatures were lower than the seasonal averages for Malatya this year. There was another frost took place on 24th of April as the temperatures hit -3 C at Malatya while the fruit has came out of the flower which is the most risky stage for the product. Luckily, the frost of 24th of April didn’t effect the growing area as bad as the estimations. The freeze has seen at the same regions which were already damaged by the earlier frosts therefore the overall picture didn’t change so much. The regions which were in good conditions before 24th of April are still stabile without any serious damage so far.
The valley of Malatya is the place where big part of the crop is growing and the frosts effected some certain regions of the subject area. The frost damages at the valley is decreasing the total crop quantity directly as there are less apricots growing at the mountain regions of Malatya. The mountain area is just starting up therefore there is no damage reported at these fields so far…
There were also concerns from growers of heavy long rain periods in Malatya during the last two months has stopped some flowers to pollinate which is not turning into fruit. The subject situation will effect the crop quantity in a negative way as well. Actually, the starting point of the bloom was not so good as the frost of last year has left some permanent damages on the trees. There were less flowers than expected on the trees so the expectations for new crop were to be a regular one lıke 100.000 – 120.000 mtons range. The frost of last weekend decreased the crop quantity below 100.000 mtons for sure…
It seems like the frost risk on new crop apricots is over as the weather forecast shows sunny days for Malatya in the next 10 days time. The progress of the fruit during May will give us a concrete idea about next year’s crop quantity, quality, availability, etc… Especially the progress at the frost damaged gardens is very important for the next days…
We are expecting the new crop to be very well balanced in terms of the sizing of the fruit. All types will be available in the market. The bigger fruits will come from the frost damaged gardens and the small fruits will come from the mountain area and the gardens of valley which were not effected by the frost. The quality of new crop apricots will depend on the weather conditions during May – June months as the hail, rains, hot weathers, etc… will be the major factors effecting the quality of the fresh fruit…
There will not be any carry over quantity from this season to the next for sure. We think that all the goods in the market will be finished till July 2015 and the suppliers, raw material traders and farmers will start up the new season with “0” inventory. This is an unusual situation for the apricot market and never experienced within the last 20 years of time… The subject situation will create a huge demand on new crop apricots at the very beginning of the season as the suppliers will be trying to buy as much as fruits to start up the new season production… The subject activity will cause an increase on the raw material prices at the beginning of the season for sure…
The US$ currency against TL will be a major factor effecting the apricot prices at the new season. The US$ reached 2,70 TL levels as of today and the expectations are an even higher currency in the next months. The subject increase of dollar against TL will create a pressure on the export prices in a positive way. Under normal market conditions, we are expecting the price of Type 4 apricots to be staying in the range of US$ 5.000 – 6.000.-/Mton during the new season.
The new crop will be delayed for about 20 days due to late start of the bloom and continuous rains during March – April months. The first shipments of the new season will take place after 15th of August this year. It seems like end July – early August shipments of new crop apricots will be impossible this season therefore the buyers should take their positions accordingly.
We are expecting a volatile market for current crop goods in the coming weeks cause the availability of the goods is getting less and less everyday. Especially the medium sizes like Type 4, 5 and 6’s are getting over in the market therefore we suggest our buyers to take their final position for the current crop goods asap.
We also would like to share the following statistics with you for the export quantities of dried apricots during the new season in comparision to last season.
|DRIED APRICOT EXPORT TOTAL QUANTITYTURKEY||01.08.2013-25.04.2014||01.08.2014-25.04.2015|
|Quantity (mton)||Average Price (mton)||Quantity (mton)||Average Price (mton)|
|THE WHOLE APRICOTS||78.966||2.942||33.995||6.456|