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Turkish Apricots Market Update

Turkish Apricots Market Update

Written by:

G.Buttner & Co. B.V.
De Korf 54
2924 AH Krimpen aan den IJssel
The Netherlands

We would like to update you on the current state of the Turkish Apricot market, based on the information that we obtained from our first quality suppliers:KAYISI

The bloom for crop 2015 apricots was not satisfiying due to continuous frosts and heavy rains during March – April months. The weather conditions went quite unusual and the temperatures were lower than the seasonal averages for Malatya this year. There was another frost took place on 24th of April as the temperatures hit -3 C at Malatya while the fruit has came out of the flower which is the most risky stage for the product. Luckily, the frost of 24th of April didn’t effect the growing area as bad as the estimations. The freeze has seen at the same regions which were already damaged by the earlier frosts therefore the overall picture didn’t change so much. The regions which were in good conditions before 24th of April are still stabile without any serious damage so far.

The valley of Malatya is the place where big part of the crop is growing and the frosts effected some certain regions of the subject area. The frost damages at the valley is decreasing the total crop quantity directly as there are less apricots growing at the mountain regions of Malatya. The mountain area is just starting up therefore there is no damage reported at these fields so far…

There were also concerns from growers of heavy long rain periods in Malatya during the last two months has stopped some flowers to pollinate which is not turning into fruit. The subject situation will effect the crop quantity in a negative way as well. Actually, the starting point of the bloom was not so good as the frost of last year has left some permanent damages on the trees. There were less flowers than expected on the trees so the expectations for new crop were to be a regular one lıke 100.000 – 120.000 mtons range. The frost of last weekend decreased the crop quantity below 100.000 mtons for sure…

It seems like the frost risk on new crop apricots is over as the weather forecast shows sunny days for Malatya in the next 10 days time. The progress of the fruit during May will give us a concrete idea about next year’s crop quantity, quality, availability, etc… Especially the progress at the frost damaged gardens is very important for the next days…

We are expecting the new crop to be very well balanced in terms of the sizing of the fruit. All types will be available in the market. The bigger fruits will come from the frost damaged gardens and the small fruits will come from the mountain area and the gardens of valley which were not effected by the frost. The quality of new crop apricots will depend on the weather conditions during May – June months as the hail, rains, hot weathers, etc… will be the major factors effecting the quality of the fresh fruit…

There will not be any carry over quantity from this season to the next for sure. We think that all the goods in the market will be finished till July 2015 and the suppliers, raw material traders and farmers will start up the new season with “0” inventory. This is an unusual situation for the apricot market and never experienced within the last 20 years of time… The subject situation will create a huge demand on new crop apricots at the very beginning of the season as the suppliers will be trying to buy as much as fruits to start up the new season production… The subject activity will cause an increase on the raw material prices at the beginning of the season for sure…ağaçta kayısı 2

The US$ currency against TL will be a major factor effecting the apricot prices at the new season. The US$ reached 2,70 TL levels as of today and the expectations are an even higher currency in the next months. The subject increase of dollar against TL will create a pressure on the export prices in a positive way. Under normal market conditions, we are expecting the price of Type 4 apricots to be staying in the range of US$ 5.000 – 6.000.-/Mton during the new season.

The new crop will be delayed for about 20 days due to late start of the bloom and continuous rains during March – April months. The first shipments of the new season will take place after 15th of August this year. It seems like end July – early August shipments of new crop apricots will be impossible this season therefore the buyers should take their positions accordingly.

We are expecting a volatile market for current crop goods in the coming weeks cause the availability of the goods is getting less and less everyday. Especially the medium sizes like Type 4, 5 and 6’s are getting over in the market therefore we suggest our buyers to take their final position for the current crop goods asap.

We also would like to share the following statistics with you for the export quantities of dried apricots during the new season in comparision to last season.

DRIED APRICOT EXPORT TOTAL QUANTITYTURKEY 01.08.2013-25.04.2014 01.08.2014-25.04.2015
Quantity (mton)  Average Price (mton) Quantity (mton) Average Price (mton)
THE WHOLE APRICOTS 78.966 2.942 33.995 6.456
INDUSTRIAL APRICOTS 9.608 1.306 2.973 3.577
DICED APRICOTS 5.839 2.250 4.160 5.132
date:  Apr 28, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Turkish Apricots Market Update
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Frost…Frost…Frost…

Crop Development Update in Turkey

Over the last week in the growing region there has been a frost risk.  On the night of the 22nd there was a frost where temperatures dropped to -1 and some damage occurred in the vineyards. The tips and leaves have blackened and these will now not develop in to fruit.

Last night the temperature dropped to -4 and early indications are that there is significant damage,  it is being reported that in some areas the damage could be as high as 70% , but this has yet to be verified.

We have attached pictures of some of the damage from the night of the 22nd and we will give you a further update when we have more information and picture from the vineyards from last night’s damage

At this stage all offers have been withdrawn until a full assessment has been carried out.

22430_10153331158684063_459263747856664265_n 1907438_1029287770433632_6731712951828264066_n 10432534_10153331158924063_457636488840407597_n 11053170_1029287737100302_6338214866850673995_n 11163244_10153331158129063_933713174212215964_n 11173352_10153331157689063_6768696892427645238_n 11174823_1029287600433649_8790867750705233423_n 11175054_1029287800433629_2909897703682754667_n 11188189_1029287670433642_3139538943277816439_n

date:  Apr 24, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Frost…Frost…Frost…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Apricots Snapshot

There are frosts forecast for the next 2 or 3 nights so everyone is withdrawn and we will have to see how much damage they do.kayısı çiçeği 1

Already there have been losses of between 30 to 40% of the crop already with the potential to loose another 20 or 30% over the next few days.

Temperature is forecast to be lowest in Dogansehir and Hekiman which are the high altitude late flowering areas, currently in bloom

date:  Apr 23, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Apricots Snapshot
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Californian Raisins Progress…

CIMG0018In the US the growth in the raisin vines are up to two weeks earlier than usual with stems between 18 to 24 inches in length following the bud break in the first week in March.

However, there is still continuing concern that the drought in California will create stress for the vines which will potentially weaken their resistance to insect and other damage.

Irrigation management will therefore continue to play a critical role to determine raisin yields for the coming year.

Californian raisins do however continue to demand a premium in the UK dried fruit market with exports to date between August 1 2014 and March 31 2015 recorded at 9,723 tonnes.

Although this is less than the previous year, this is still a respectable quantity and places the UK in the third spot after Japan and the US as a consumer of US Thompson seedless raisins

date:  Apr 17, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Californian Raisins Progress…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

What’s happening with Turkish Hazelnuts?

The exporters union are saying that they believe that any damage due to the weekend frosts will be limited to bushes over 900 m, they come to this conclusion by looking at the flowers. If this is correct and we also believe the same, then damage will be minimal maybe 15-20,000 mt but again no one can say for sure until the end of the week beginning next week.047

What is clear is that there are few if any sellers this morning of 2014 crop, we get no deliveries at 36 TL but also little demand. We don’t believe that the frosts are to blame just that there is almost nothing left.

Nominally the market stays at 36 TL but with a weak lira at 2.6750 to the US$ (down 1%) US$ prices are down slightly today raw 11/13 mm Levant’s would be in the region of US$ 14350 pmt C&F Europe market quality in jute sacks gross weights.

date:  Apr 14, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on What’s happening with Turkish Hazelnuts?
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Apricots Update…

Exports for March were 3,953 tons, compared to 9,383 tons last year.Picture 1083

Year to date exports were 36,824 tons compared to 88,644 tons last year.

Exports were in line with expectations, and 14% up on last month. April exports are expected to be similar or a little higher as there has been significant business concluded when prices dipped to season lows during March. Total export figures for the year are expected to reach 45,000 to 50,000 tons with zero carryover.

The bloom continues to face challenging weather conditions

Up to 10 cm of snow fell over the weekend in many growing areas

Following the frost on the early morning of 6th April when temperatures were recorded to –5C in the main growing area, the first half of last week saw temperatures climb to 20 C bringing many of the remaining trees into bloom, before temperatures tumbled 10 C or more over the past weekend, with night time temperatures recorded to –2 C (Darende) and with up to 10 cm of snow.

It is too early to put any reliable estimate on the 2015 crop, we certainly do not expect anything as bad as 2014, but there is damage, and unlike 2014, there will be no carry over cushion.
james
Since the frost the market has been withdrawn pending assessment of the damage. Due to the strong demand during March triggered when prices dipped ahead of the bloom, most of the remaining stocks of size 4 5 and 6 are now sold out, with only small quantities of larger sizes remaining uncommitted.

We look foreword to handling your inquiries via our Apricots trader James Weaire james@chelmerfoods.com or your usual account manager.

date:  Apr 13, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Apricots Update…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

California crop updates from FreshPacific…

Walnuts062

California received welcome rains yesterday in many parts of the State.  Northern California had more measureable rain than areas farther South.  Rainfall amounts were not enough in any location however to change the drought situation in California.  There was some hail reported in specific areas but so far it does not appear to be wide spread.   There however will be specific fields where some damage can be expected but this take some time to be evaluated.   All walnut growers however were pleased with this needed moisture as it will surely help walnut bloom and increases the potential for a better nut set.  Most growers agree that they have always had better crops in years where there has been some rain during bloom as it appears to help young developing nuts by controlling the amount of natural ethelyne produced by the flowers.

Growers at this time do feel that even though bloom has looked very good so far is not fully over, there biggest concern is still centered around the current drought situation.  Northern California just by location will be less impacted than the Southern growing areas but the worry and concern will be the severe shortage of surface water.  Many areas do have wells and pumps but this still does not guarantee sufficient water to produce a normal crop.  Without adequate and continuous supplies of good quality water both walnut crop volume and quality can be affected.

At this time the early and older varieties of Payne, Serr, Tehama, Ashley, Vino and Chico are in full bloom and about one week or more ahead of normal.  These varieties for example last season only contributed to about 12% of the entire California crop.  The slightly later varieties of Tulares and Howards are now at about 30-60% bloom which represent just under 30% of the California crop.  The later varieties of Hartley’s and Chandlers are now just starting bloom with flowers just developing.  These two varieties represent the largest percentage of the crop or about 55% of the total.    It will be approximately another month before bloom will be completely over.  There is the possibility of another storm early next week which again would be very welcome by all of California agriculture.

To  date as a whole, based on the reality of the current California drought situation the potential for a lower volume crop is very realistic.  Even though there will be more barring acres the effects of the current drought and lack of water could easily mitigate the increased acreage with total lower volume on the 2015 crop.  Time will tell and more will be known over the next few months.

Almondsalmond4

Like all California crops this season, almond bloom was earlier than normal.  Bloom appeared to be from 7-14 days earlier than many previous seasons.  Bloom in general however was reported to be uneven

with less crosspollination even though the weather was almost ideal.  Bloom weather during the majority of the time was almost perfect with dry conditions and warm days.  As noted above there was a winter storm yesterday that did have some hail in specific locations.  As noted above some damage is expected but again it should not be wide spread and it will take some time to access the full extent of the damage.

As noted above,  almonds will also be effected by the current California drought and water situation.  Like walnuts there will be an increase in total acreage with new production but at the sametime the potential for thousands of acres to be effected by lack of water is still the greatest concern.  This season on the NP variety as well as others, even though the nut hull set on the tree, the actual nut on many trees never internally developed.  Any trees and or vines when stressed by lack of good quality water may appear to look Ok and healthy but the first defense for survival will be to “shed” the fruit.  This again will be a concern for this season.    At this time it is too soon to know the effects that the continued drought situation will have on this year’s crop.  By mid- June once all chances of frost are over as well as the potential effects of additional rain events,   a better idea on total volume will be known.   An early thought right now is that the almond crop for the 2015 season will not be as large as the 2014 crop of 1.9 million pounds.  we will keep you advised.

Grapes/Raisinsraisins

Grape bunch counts have started. Early indications are a much higher count than 2014. Counts range from 30 to 35 bunches per vine. Additional estimates should be announced over the next couple of weeks . Pullouts of raisin varietals and wine vartietals continues at a steady pace. Rough estimates put raisin pullouts at about 15,000 acres. This is equivalent to a loss of about 30,000 tons of raisins. However, the demand for concentrates is greatly diminished. The wineries use the same grape as the raisin industry to make concentrate. As the wine demand for raisin varietal grapes diminishes the grower is left with only one option,  devote his production to raisins. This will offset the 15,000 acres of pullouts. Last year the wineries crushed 155,000 tons of raisin varietals for concentrate. If 100% of this tonnage is diverted to raisin production, it would produce 39,000 tons or raisins .

Our best guess is that you can probably rely on about 50% going to raisin production. In all we feel that there will be a continued oversupply of raisins going into the 2015 crop year.

Water continues to be a national topic. Now we are beginning to see arguments against our high speed rail system and the public wanting more attention to the current water crisis. The water problem could impact the 2015 raisin crop due to reduced irrigations which could stress the fruit development. Regardless of the water problems , we still believe that the drought will not have a significant impact on the yields overall. The 2015 crop should still be larger that 2014. Through last week , 286,000 tons of NTS has been reported by the processors. Undelivered tonnage is probably around 15,000 tons putting the total around 300,000 tons plus. With the increase in bunch counts and yield per acres increasing it is safe to say at this time the 2015 should be over 300,000 tons easily.

Reports above courtasy of Steve Troehler from FreshPacificFresh Pacific Logo

 

date:  Apr 10, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on California crop updates from FreshPacific…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More

Greek Currants update…

Offers prices of Greek Currants from origin are presently stable and are likely to remain so, at least until any risk of frost damage to the new crop development has passed (early May).

 

Whilst the rapid fall in Greek raw material prices, over the last two seasons, combined with the reduced subsidy, paid to the grower, may well impact upon total production within the next few years, we do not expect this to significantly affect production from the 2015 crop. As shown below, we also expect a carryover of around 5,600mt, at the end of this season.

currants

2014 crop estimate 19,000mt
Less packer retention (say average 12%)   2,400mt
16,600mt
Plus 2013 crop carry over   6,000mt
Estimated Total supply @ 1.9.14 22,600mt
Less anticipated export demand 1.9.14 to 31.8.15 17,000mt
Predicted carry over @ 31.8.15   5,600mt

 

 

 

 

Assuming  that a 2015 crop of around 20,000mt is safely harvested, this will give around 17,500 after retention (Although no longer compulsory, packers typically retain and about 12% of their raw material, as being too large or underdeveloped.  This is used in production of alcohol etc). To this we must add the 2014 crop carryover of around 5,600mt, giving a total supply of 23,100 mt, against anticipated total demand of 17,000mt – 18,000mt.

 

Based on the assumption that there are no significant crop issues, in other World origins, we would expect that the average price for the 2105/6 season, will be slightly lower than that of this season.

 

This also assumes that Greece remains in The Euro-zone, and that the average Sterling/Euro rate for the period is 1.37 – 1.40.RIMG0059

 

For any enquires of Greek Provincial or Vostizza Currants please contact our buyer Tony Smith tony@chelmerfoods.com or your usual contact…

 

date:  Apr 09, 2015 comments:  Comments Off on Greek Currants update…
by:  Simon Heather category:  Latest News Read More