- Export: 625-650,000 mt (Exports will be boosted by lack of Italian Hazels, relative competitiveness of the Turkish market vs Caucasus, and the wish for major users to take long cover).
- Domestic Demand: 100,000 mt
- TMO/FKB: 100,000 mt in shell (So far, they’ve collected 70/75,000 mt and booked 150/160,000 mt)
Today we see the market in Turkey at between 15.50 and 15.75 TL/kg in shell (31-31.5 TL kernels). This is a minor increase from last week and it is predicted that more supply will be coming into the market and in turn not going to TMO. This gives the private market the opportunity to get ahead of any squeeze on supply next year which may be created by TMO purchases. Hence in the short term we see a stable market around these current levels. At these prices there remains good demand.
Obviously, what remains unknow is currency and ultimately the eventual size of the 2019 crop. Forecasting the crop at present is very problematic, we have seen forecasts being 10% up and down many times!