New Californian Walnut crop is predicted to arrive both later and shorter than expected. There are reports from orchards that suggest the early varieties are down significantly compared to last year. Chandler variety crop represents about 60% of the total California walnut crop. This is expected to be received shortly and in turn should help provide a clearer picture of total new crop production.
Reports have shown that the average nuts set per tree has declined for the total walnut crop (16%) and for all varieties including Chandler (5%), Hartley (31%), Howard (25%), Tulare (29%), and Vina (25%). There is a percentage of Californian Walnut growers that are expecting to come in below the estimated measurement of 630k tons. However, the total crop size will be made clearer when the Chandler harvest ramps up and more receipts are seen.
Many walnut packers are off the market or only offering selectively. This is due to the unclear crop size. This has encouraged many handlers to hold back on their marketing to avoid selling early at lower prices and to avoid being oversold when the crop comes in below expectations, which is what many people estimate.
Business has been done at a higher price recently and the global demand does look strong. The shorter and later crop has affected the marketing season for in-shell and shelled walnuts this year, it is expected to be much longer in duration compared to last year. The is a continual and promising potential in pricing,
We have seen business done at higher price levels and so far, the global demand appetite looks strong. Given the shorter and later crop, the marketing season for in-shell and shelled walnuts this year will be much longer in duration compared to last year. We continue to see upside potential in pricing assumed by the unsatisfactory receipts of early varieties and the potential for Chandler to be down more than expected.