Californian Walnuts Market Update
The July 2022 Walnut shipments were +29,969 tons in 2022 versus 35,377 tons in July 2021 on an in-shell equivalent, for a decrease of -16.1 percent
Season To Date Shipments
The industry has shipped a total of 654,516 tons for the 2021 crop, compared to 716,305 tons at this point for the 2020 crop. This is a decrease of -8.7%.
Final crop receipts for the 2021/2022 crop is 720,163 tons, which is an 8.3% reduction from the 2020/2021 crop of 785,000 tons.
Domestic / USA:
July 2022 shipments versus 2021 shipments on an in-shell equivalent were down -by 8.8%
July 2022 shipments versus 2021 shipments on an in-shell equivalent were down 23%
Shipments for the year are down 8.7%, with a crop down 8.3%, which doesn’t appear too bad, all things considered. However, the remaining old crop is extremely difficult to sell, causing prices to hit lows not seen for a long time. New crop selling has started at levels well below the cost of growing. The cause for such low prices despite shipments almost matching the decrease in crop size can be summarized as a global oversupply of walnuts, and overseas markets dealing with a strong dollar, a war in Europe, and inflation, all resulting in decreased demand for nuts.
The weather has been favorable so far this summer. Chile still has inventory, China has a record crop, and California 2022 crop is estimated to be between 780,000 and 810,000 tons which also will be a record. In September, we will have all the major countries that produce walnuts shipping simultaneously. As a result, it is imperative that California open at competitive levels, which they failed to do last year. It seems California learned their lesson from last year as our early contracts for California walnuts are at highly competitive prices. Those who have already taken the risk to book will receive the earliest shipments once the harvest has begun. With some luck, we will continue this pattern, resulting in excellent quality.
2021/22 Walnut Supply (inshell tons)
Carry-in from prior season: 98 054 MT
2021 Crop Receipts: 729 770 MT
Total available for shipment: 827 824 MT
Less: Shipments to date thru July 31: 654 516 MT
Remaining unshipped supply: 173 308 MT
Less: Commitments as of July 31 - 109 113 MT
Remaining supply available for sale: 64 195 MT
Remaining California walnut supply:
As of July 31, 2022, the estimated unshipped supply was 173 308 in-shell tons. This exceeds unshipped supply as of May 31, 2021, by about 73 000 tons(+73%).
Assuming August shipments similar to last season at 32 000 in-shell tons, the carryout would be about 141 000 in-shell equivalent tons.
Commitments (product sold but not yet shipped) as of July 31.2022 were about 109 000 in-shell equivalent tons. When shipments are similar to last season at 32 000 in-shell tons, the carryout would be about 141 000 in-shell equal tons.
The graph below illustrates the season-to-date shipments both in terms of total volume and the % of the crop shipped as of July 31. Strong shipments over the past few months have improved the overall sold/shipped position, but the carryout is still forecast to be higher than in past seasons.