Hazelnuts Market Update, 2022

International demand has been “stable” for a long time which indeed means “low stable”. There is around a 30-35% decrease in exportation volume compared to last year. Therefore, the main differentiator in the hazelnut industry has been Ferrero for many weeks since the beginning of the season, and they bought only from certain suppliers and for limited volumes. TMO has also been an alternative but not an attractive one for all parties. As a result of some restrictions, appointment issues, late payments, logistic barriers, quality issues, etc. Therefore, low demand kept raw material prices at a certain “low” level and prevented it from rising despite high inflation in Turkey (this is what happens when it's mainly an export product).

Lately, the local market has seen a certain increase in demand due to the incoming new year period. That demand has pushed up raw material prices sharply and unexpectedly. It increased to 7-8% now despite relatively stable currency movements. Some parties consider it as a“fake” increase, believing that it will be decreasing after new Year, especially considering that TMO will be out of the scene by the end of the year.

On the other hand, some expect (or hope) prices to go even higher. Thinking of approaching general elections (probably May-June), we believe the government will somehow support hazelnut prices as they cannot risk a huge vote potentially in Black Sea Region, and they would like to keep them happy somehow.