Peanut, Market Report
Like most other agricultural commodities, the peanut market is facing problems such as the effects of the pandemic, transport difficulties and, last but not least, the Ukraine crisis. Above all, the global effects of the war are still difficult to assess at present.
Brazil has been shipping their new 2022 crop since March. Quality looks good and they could have 15-20% more compared to last year. Unfortunately, with the war in Russia/Ukraine their position in the market has changed 360 degrees. Brazil exports over 50% to these countries and because of this ban they have many containers afloat and in several European ports that are blocked.
Prices have dropped significantly from Brazil for both edible and bird feed market. This is combination with the lack of small sizes like 60/70, so the bird feed market should be open to receive bigger size kernels. Obviously, the European buyer expects that the remaining origins should lower their prices as well but for now we do not see this major shift happening any time soon.
On a very recent note, there are rumors about an agreement between China and Brazil, which could state that China can import Brazilian peanuts. With this info, the Brazilians have changed their position and they are off the market for birdfeed peanuts and have increased their prices again (aldebaran.nl)
The past couple of months Argentina had some dry weather, much rain was needed for certain areas in particular. Most probably, those that have planted in the dry areas will face some issues. For now the crop looks OK, but we still have 1-3 months before harvesting, depending on the sheller. We noticed that demand for Argentinian peanuts is low, buyers prefer to wait or are already covered with other origins. There are still some offers for current crop left but these are the 5-10% left overs which usually have off parameters, like grade B, higher FFA, etc. For now, shippers are OK with their sales and do not find it necessary to push new crop sales. (aldebaran.nl)
The market has been quite stable in the past half year, not too many price fluctuations. Compared to 2020, an increase of 16,5% is expected for this origin. These peanuts must go somewhere, so we feel that this market could come down a notch. There are 2 main issues though now, 1st is the supply of the Jumbo sizes and 2nd is the shipment to easter Europe. Booking are being cancelled or vessels are being rolled over, causing a delay of 1 to 2 months. (aldebaran.nl)
Past 2-3 months have showed some decrease in peanut prices, which we noticed because of the FOB prices. However, with high freights the CIF prices remain at firm levels. 2 weeks ago the kernel prices also showed an increased due to sudden demand of the oil crushers. In general, there is a weak demand from EU for Chinese peanuts. (aldebaran.nl)
The crop is growing under good conditions and the yields are looking good. There was some misunderstanding about the crop estimates. Initial plantings were at 37.000 Ha, than 34.000 Ha and now they are quite optimistic with 44.900 Ha. Basically South Africa has their export-hat on again. Another factor that impact this the rules of South Africa on importing peanuts. Recent news is that South-Africa has this new rule of requesting a smut certificate from Brazilian shippers. So when importing from Argentina they can only import blanched peanuts and from Brazil an additional smut certificate must be received. However, question now is can South Africa keep their prices at such high levels for there 50/60, 60/70 and 70/80? Quality wise they are totally not comparable with the much cheaper Argentina and Brazil runner type. They come the closest to Chinese Hsuji (which much shorter transit time to Europe as a benefit) and Indian Bold types (with no risk on aflatoxin as a benefit).