Raw cashew nut 2019 crop scenario:
Crop reports are coming in globally - Some places early and most places a good crop.
At new crop raw cashew prices the processing parity of cashews is coming to 3.60 USD/lb
The prices are expected to move southwards and therefore larger processors are willing to sell April /May /June positions close to 3.55-3.60 USD/lb (some may be at 3.51). There is no raw material in the processing warehouses . It will start arriving in March and April.
Processors have not contracted raw cashew nut as they do not have enough sales in the books so they want to put some sales in the books.
Many buyers of kernels have made their purchase hand to mouth.
Kernel price movement and volatility
10-20 cents is the impact loss each time market sentiment changes. A lot of kernel in oct contracted at 3.30-3.40... many contracts were defaulted as markets quickly rose to 3.70 levels.
Large traders are short and they are now trying to push the market down and then cover.
Price View :
Vietnam market is skewed to USA and China as they constitute 80% of the demand.
In USA the trading houses have taken shorts from Jan to June .
Chinese demand comes in after one month of the new year and they will be in the market some time first half March .