Seeds Market Update October 2015
The new crop harvest in China will just about be finished in mid October this year. Overall it is thought that the total crop is about 30 pct larger than last year but we must remember that last year’s crop was the worst for several years.
GWS is about similar in size to last year’s crop but the quality is thought to be better due to kinder harvest conditions in September.
Shine skin tonnage is up but the general feeling is that the crop is OK but not as huge as we were thinking it may be back earlier in the Summer.
Demand is increasing domestically in China for the national holiday from 1 st to 7 th October 2015 and also demand is expected to be strong up until the New Year holiday that starts on the 8 th February 2016 next year.
Would suggest taking cover up to February/March 2016 to see yourself through the busy domestic period in China.
The harvest is nearly completed for the oil seeds in Bulgaria. The overall size of the crop is good and the quality is fair , maybe a little smaller kernel size than last year due to the very hot Summer Bulgaria had this year.
Demand is very strong for the new crop at the moment and most sellers are booked up until December 2015 /January 2016 shipment. We may see a weakening in the market after Xmas when buyers worldwide would have had their first few shipments and demand may slacken a little putting pressure on growers and processors to be more competitive. Would advise to cover up to January/ February 2016
The confectionery crop in China is down from last year’s big crop due to farmers planting more pumpkin but overall the crop is OK and prices are steady.
USA origin is looking good but still considerably more expensive than Chinese origin. Argentina is waiting a while before offering for their new crop next Spring.
Overall prices from China look attractive.
India has enjoyed a good Monsoon as reported earlier in the Summer and the new crop is about 4 weeks away from being harvested and the overall size is looking good.
This coupled with less demand from some traditionally large buyers such as Greece and China at the moment means that growers / processors are keen to secure business and prices have eased from the highs of last Autumn and earlier this year.
Would suggest taking cover into 2016 at current levels.
Prices remain historically very attractive both for brown and golden linseeds – good crops from Russia, Kazakhstan and Moldavia this Summer mean that prices have already come down and we feel any further significant price reduction is unlikely.
Hulled Millet seeds
The crop in the Mid West of America ,Dakota and Colorado, is looking very good this year – new crop will be shipped in late October.
The market is rather quiet at the moment but demand is expected to pick up for the traditional Xmas trade in Europe as usual very soon.
There are no shortages in supply and the Czech new crop plantings were about 20 pct higher than for 2014 but overall the crop is similar to last year’s due to dry conditions during the Summer.
Overall we feel prices are stable and likely to move up and down about Euros 50 pmt this season.
Hoping the above overview is of some use and if any firm offers etc are required please do not hesitate to contact us.