Turkish Vine Fruit Update 06.09.24

The new crop harvest has been underway for the past three weeks, and several developments have already shifted the landscape.

In the three months leading up to August, the weather conditions were nearly perfect for fruit development. As a result, the fruit was ready for harvest slightly earlier than last year. However, many farmers in Türkiye, adhering to traditional practices, continued harvesting on their usual dates, regardless of the earlier fruit maturity.

The slight delay allowed the berries' Brix levels to increase, making them heavier after drying. Consequently, the dried berries are denser this year, and the counts per 100 grams are no longer aligning with standard size specifications. As a result, small-sized fruit is expected to be scarce, with a notable premium attached to this crop. Over the past 10 days, heavy rains in the drying regions have further disrupted the process, raising concerns among farmers about the impact on fruit quality during drying.

Before the new crop, raw material prices for type 9s hovered around 120 TL/kg, translating to an export price of $4000 - $4150 per tonne. However, when the Taris cooperative announced a mid-to-late August purchase price of 100 TL/kg, farmers expressed dissatisfaction, even uniting on social media to withhold material from packers. This coordinated effort seems to be having an effect, as packers report a year-on-year decline in daily volumes received. This has driven raw material prices up to around 105 TG/kg, leading to export prices of $3500 - $3700 FOB.

While these prices remain lower than last year's crop, there's potential for further increases due to limited carryover, a smaller crop that doesn't meet export and domestic demand, and rain-related quality concerns. It's shaping up to be another challenging year, and the only factors that could ease the upward pressure on prices are a significant devaluation of the Lira against the US Dollar or a sharp drop in demand as customers seek cheaper alternatives.