USA Almond carry-out estimate
The USA Almond carry out is expected to be roughly 900 million pounds (lbs), a 300 million pound increase in comparison to 2020 carry over. This along with news of the shipping reports has led to market pricing decrease further than expected recently. A strong market prediction in November 2021 was that pricing may reduce further, but not to the extent that we feel we may see this year. As a result, we may well see a two-price scheme in 2022 and possibly into 2023 if crop carry in next year is in a similar way. This would mean one price for old crop and one price for new crop.
The total carry out is around 38% of total sales. This shows the strong hesitation to buy Almonds at present, which may lead to a price decrease in the future, on top of current news and market conditions.
California droughts have been a significant problem for new crop growth, which may result in a smaller yield than expected. With this in mind, we may see a large price difference between old crop and new crop pricing if we start to see a two-price structure from packers.