Walnuts Shipment Report 11.12.24

The outlook for the 2024/25 California walnuts crop has become clearer, with production estimated at approximately 600,000 inshell tons. This figure is lower than most industry stakeholders had anticipated, leading many packers to sell more of their inventory than planned and contributing to a rise in prices. For growers, these higher prices are a welcome shift from the unsustainability low levels or recent seasons. However, the benefits are tempered by the smaller crop size.

Sales and shipment trends this season reveal a significant divergence depending on the market. Key markets such as Europe, Japan, the USA, and India, which have strong annual demand for California walnuts, have actively purchased despite increasing prices. In contrast, regions like the Middle East and North Africa, which are more receptive to Chinese-origin walnuts, have pivoted toward the lower-cost, higher meat yield options from China. The coming months will be pivotal in determining demand from critical markets. With China now largely sold out and raising prices, and Chile expected to open its pricing aggressively in response to California's supply and price dynamics, the market will likely see further shifts.

Although new business activity has slowed recently, packers remain in a strong position. They are busy fulfilling existing orders and express little to no concern about selling or shipping the remaining volumes. Looking ahead, we expect tight supply and firm pricing to mark the season. This underscores the competitive landscape and potential challenges in balancing demand.

via Derco Foods