Current Market Conditions
Shipments have continued at a steady rate though Q3. It is apparent that many Buyers are favoring purchasing on a spot basis rather than contracting across the remainder of the year. Prices have steadied or strengthened depending on the size of the kernel with halves displaying limited availability in the majority of improved sizes. Pecan prices remain scattered for the current crop with decent positions for most sizes.
Tree nut crop projections
The past month has been many early predictions for the almond, walnut, and pecan crops. All three are estimated to decrease or produce a similar size crop when compared to the last season.
The first two estimates for the pecan crop (the tri-state and Texas growers association) have estimates for the US crop produce to 120,655 tons (266 million lbs.) and 116,677 tons (257 million lbs) respectively. If correct, the Us crop will be of similar size to the previous seasons.
Another historically short crop has been predicted to occur, reasons for this include: decreasing production in the native crop, destroyed south-eastern acreage from the 2018 hurricanes, and decreased production out of the state of Texas. The westerns US growing regions continue to produce at a steady rate, but this increase is overshadowed by decreased production in the east.
This season projections remain similar; improvements on pecan halves will persist to strengthen and pecan pieces will likely remain in an open position. However, there it is a likelihood that the pecan piece position will decrease and prices could strengthen in light of another possible short crop. Q4 could see a slight increase in all pecan prices.