We are at the beginning fringes of new crop and the field prices have still not dropped. The heavy rains in the Southeast are slowing the receipt of the crop which is forcing the shellers there to buy out of Mexico for near term supply. The shellers in the Southwest are trying to keep their buying to a minimum right now so as to weaken the field prices. This has not worked. So, between the weather and the holiday season buying the market price has been supported at the prevailing levels.
We are all keenly aware that the market on almonds and walnuts have had deep corrections. But, the forces that have undermined those two crops have had no bearing on pecans at this point.
*China buying has been steady. Pecans were not a heavily speculated item by the Chinese so the overall slow down in their economy has had a negligible impact on pecans so far.
*The crises in India and Dubai have had no impact on pecans as very little product sells in these markets.
*The European and USA domestic markets are actively buying
The true direction of this market is dependent upon the crop receipts which will only be known by late Jan/Feb. I believe that this market will hold up until then. I would be more guarded going into late first quarter which is when we will know more when the holiday demand subsides and the crop size is determined.