Market is just starting to get a bit tighter in terms of available unsold raw material. Stocks in Western Europe are very low with deliveries into processors really starting to slow up. Every pre-supplier is struggling to get linseed into Europe ant they are now starting to have to pay a premium for prompt shipments. Y-O-Y costing has been hit by increases in the cost of paper and transport costs (mainly fuel driven). Paper bags went up in price with 10% in 2019 & transport rates went up with 5% in 2019. Our supplier is reporting they have product unsold but enquiries are starting to trickle in for Q3/Q4 and that they’ll start to see pressure on their unsold material as we get closer to Q2.
We are expecting the market to remain difficult throughout the crop. Buyers have been trying to source better prices from across USA, Poland & Ukraine, and now many origins now have very limited volume remaining. Packers in USA are reporting a full forward book for 2/3 months when previously they had spare capacity for prompt shipments, this is likely to get worse as shipments from Ukraine & Poland slow down with available material really drying up. A hot summer will continue to put pressure on European harvest as we experienced with last year. Prices are only expected to continue to rise in the coming months.
Market has been fairly flat recently however we are seeing some additional demand from China. The expectation is that the market would expect to remain fairly stable at around €620/mt FOB with only currency variations really pushing prices up.
It is apparent that the demand for pumpkin seeds, especially for European markets, is currently slow however other markets such as Indian and America continues to have strong demand. At present the raw material availability is starting to tighten but packers are actively chasing new business and as such are offering competitively against each other in the hope of securing sales before the expected squeeze on raw material strikes. The coming months we are expecting the prices to rise steadily. Domestic use of material for the roasted industry is increasing year on year with this now showing the initial signs of putting genuine pressure on the quantity that China will be able to export.
Prices rose sharply during 2018 hitting all time highs. Problem is though, that while these price levels indeed have been noted, availability is still very scarce, so demand keeps on constantly exceeding supply, certainly at the current levels and most probably also at, again, a tick higher levels. Demand remains healthy, with prices being adjusted by the week and all over the globe, where fresh inquiries are landing more and more in the EU from the other continents as well, which resulted in a solid floor under, as well as being further supportive to, the current price levels.