Yesterday afternoon the Turkish Exporters union announced their final estimate for the 2015 Turkish crop at 733,243 mt in shell this is up from the 683,000 mt they had made in the spring. This is very good news and will be welcomed by manufacturers who have had to endure the most difficult last twelve months. A crop of this size will produce a sizeable surplus enabling prices to come back to more sustainable levels.
Currently there is only very limited interest in new crop with most manufacturers preferring to wait. New crop prices currently discount current crop by about 20%. Raw 11/13 mm Whole graded market quality would be in the region of US$ 10,000 pmt C&F Europe. We would hope that as we approach harvest prices may track lower. What is unknown is the reaction of farmers to such a good crop. Many do not need to sell quickly as have other sources of income whilst also having gotten used to a higher market, how long they can resist is unknown but with very little carry over stock in Europe the early shipments should be in demand.
We will keep you updated with any new developments.