You can find below last 10 years Average Dried Apricot export figures of Turkey . Details of these figures are available click here>>Apricots Data Last 10 years – World ( 2005-2014 )<<.
We do not have the numbers of Crop 2014’s last two months yet .
|From August to July next year|
|Quanity ton||Total Amount $||Average Price $/kg|
As you can see on the above chart in an average value of last 10 years Turkey exports nearly 100.000 tons and with domestic market total demand is around 105.000 tons.
In Crop 2014 Season we have the lowest export quantity since Crop 1997 Season. Most probably we will end up with an export quantity around 50.000 tons at end of July . This lowest quantity decrease the average export quantity of last ten years a lot .
We foresee the Crop 2015 size as 92000 tons ( you can refer to my market report dated 27-05-2015). If we consider Turkey’s average demand ( exports + domestic ) as 105000 tons ,we estimate that in Crop 2015 season Dried Apricots supply will be smaller than possible demand .
We will start Crop 2015 season with empty warehouses and supermarket shelfs both in Turkey and importer countries. We do not expect any significant carry over from old crop to new crop ( You can refer to my market report 13-05-2015 ) . Remaining quantity will be very poor quality and for sure not for human consumption
Normally , we see New Crop Dried Apricots in the market during mid July but this season we expect intense new crop delivery to the market during mid August . This will create an important shortage at the begining of the Crop Season .
Closing prices of Crop 2014 wil have an influence on Crop 2015 prices . Growers will be reluctant to accept any lower prices .
World’s biggest Dried Apricots market and Turkey’s second biggest Export partner is Russia. Middle Asian Countries Uzbekistan , Tajikistan , Kyrgyzstan are the main supplier of this gigantic consumer.
Due to the severe frost damage , Uzbekistan , Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan lost majority of their Apricots crop . According the news we receive from that part of the world , the effect and size of the frost is as big as frost in Malatya in march 2013 which left Turkey without any fruit in Crop 2014 season.
Usually Russia imports around 15.000 tons of apricots from Turkey in a Crop Season and much more than this amount from other sources .We expect that Russia will import minimum its usual quantity from Turkey this season as there will be no alternative sources .We beleive that Turkey will also receive additional demand from other countries like Ukraine , Belarussia etc .
If we consider that Turkey is almost the only Dried Apricots supplier in Crop 2015 season and its Crop is not even enough for its traditional markets , possibility of high prices during entire season is more than possibility of low prices .
Despite of above pessimistic indicators currency rates may help us to lower our export price offers . Turkish lira is weak and it is very likely that will lose further value by the help of FED and unstable political situation .