We remain in the transition period between 2017 crop and soon to be available 2018 crop. Trade is thin as most shippers prefer to wait till 2018 crop is physically available before setting prices. 2017 crop is still available at 20.5 TL a price which hasn’t changed for the last three months.
New crop should start to appear from the lower farms about mid-August, then we will start to get a better idea as to size of the crop, quality and price farmers are prepared to sell at. With the harvest taking place over several weeks and dependent on weather conditions, these insights to the new crop will not be instant but will become apparent over time. We expect the crop to be about 650,000 mt (min 600 max 700,000 mt), the last Exporters Union figure was constant at 634,000 mt in shell.
Should we have no surprises with the crop the big unknowns will remain TMO policy and the Turkish lira.
The TMO probably won’t announce their intentions until they know more about the crop. How much they intend to buy and at what price will depend on the opening of the private market. Some speculators offer new crop on the basis of 24 – 24.5 TL
We can only work with what we know and that is 2017 crop at 20.5 TL.
Report received from our partner supply in Turkey.