Turkish Vine Fruit – The Frost Report – April 2015

Turkish Vine Fruit – The Frost Report – April 2015

posted by: Simon Heather date: Apr 30, 2015 category: Latest News comments: Comments Off on Turkish Vine Fruit – The Frost Report – April 2015

There was a significant frost on the night of the 23rd April in the growing regions. The frost was wide spread and temperatures dropped between -1 to – 3 degrees between 4.00 and 6.00 am. There was already some dew on the vines at this time which resulted in a negative affect combined with the frost and this effectively burnt the developing bunches and leaves.

DSC_0149The damage is very severe with some vineyards losing 90% of their bunches. Although this is in the extreme cases, very few vineyards have escaped and the extent of damaged is different throughout the growing regions.

DSC_0073

In the regions of Ahmetli, Turgutlu, and Sahili the damage is around 50% on average. In Alasehir the damage is lower around 15 -20%. In the region of Saruhanli, Akisar and Golmamara the damage is in the region of 60%.

The above is an estimate and in some cases, one vineyard has no damage and some have 100%

Prior to the frost of the 23rd April there had been another frost a week before which did some limited damage, but critically hampered new births on the vines. This combined with the already developing bunches being damaged has had a huge impact. It is now very unlikely that the vines will now have a significant number of new births and those that are developing are male flowers and will not go on the develop fruit.

On speaking to growers their view is now more about damage limitation to the vines. In most case they have written off the crop from this year and will prune back the dead stems and treat the soil for the 2016 crop in order to protect the vines they have.

DSC_0124As you tour the various areas it is clear to see where the frost has damaged the vines as they have all turned brown. In the coming days there will be more new vine leaf growth and it will look like that the vines are more healthy again, however this is leaf development and not fruit, so although you can see healthy green vines the fruit has already been damaged and will not recover.

Typically the yields from a deciare of vines would be 500kg, last season this was much higher as it was a bumper crop, so we were seeing yields of up to 700kg. This year in the severely damaged vineyards they will not get more than 100kg.

The growing area is approximately 900,000 hectares, of this we estimate that 360,000 hectare has been lost due to frost damage, this is effectively 90,000mt of fruit. Those areas less effected such as Alasehir which also produce for fresh grape exports, typically 35% would be sold as fresh grapes. DSC_0139With losses of 20% this area will now account for half of its production as Fresh as this will take priority so the availability for dried will be less from this area.

Last year the crop was approximately 320,000 mt, this year based on an assessments of early development the crop was not looking as good and was estimated to be around 270,000mt as well the birth rates were lower.1

Using this as a starting point and applying the level of damage we do not expect to see a crop greater than 180,000 mt and this is an optimistic figure. We are expecting to see a carry in of around 35,000mt so the total available quantity will be around 215,000mt.

The industry, particularly that in Turkey has been much maligned for exaggerating the situation in the past, but this year there are very genuine reasons why we can expect a tough season.

Based on the area size last years and the yields, and what we have seen he have tried to estimate what the total crop will be. It has to be stressed that this our assessment and is only estimated

2014 Crop         2015 Crop      
 
 
Area KG/DA Yeild Tonnage   Area Yeild KG/DA Tonnage
                 
Menemen

30450

352

10718

  Menemen

30450

175

5328.75

Kemelpasa

28750

200

5750

  Kemelpasa

28750

175

5031.25

Toprbali

7900

300

2370

  Toprbali

7900

150

1185

Manisa

85638

355

30401

  Manisa

85638

200

17128

Suruhanli

85585

465

39797

  Suruhanli

85585

200

17117

Turgutlu

76800

385

29568

  Turgutlu

76800

200

15360

Ahmetli

50000

418

20900

  Ahmetli

50000

205

10250

Golmarmara

23200

544

12621

  Golmarmara

23200

200

4640

Akhisar

18000

500

9000

  Akhisar

18000

250

4500

Salhili (1)

108215

490

50374

  Salhili

108215

300

16232.25

Alasehir (2)

182500

520

61685

  Alasehir

182500

426

50158.06

Sarigol (3)

81523

688

28044

  Sarigol

81523

344

18093

Ruldan (4)

31700

640

8115

  Ruldan

31700

320

4610.909

Cal (5)

123000

174

14981

  Cal

123000

75

9225

Bekilli (6)

9940

174

1211

  Bekilli

9940

150

1146.923

Denizli (7)

41858

326

2631

  Denizli

41858

150

1255.74

 
Total

985059

………..

328166

  Total

985059

 

181261.3

(1) 50% deducted for fresh grape production
(2) 35% deducted for Fresh Grape production
(3) 50% deducted for Fresh Grape production
(4) 60% deducted for Fresh Grape production
(5) 33% deducted for Fresh Grape production
(6) 30% deducted for Fresh Grape production(7) 80% deducted for Fresh Grape production

 

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