Stocks are coming to an end, exports are likely to taper off further in the remaining 2 months of the season leaving final figures estimated as follows
2013 Carry In 40,000 tons
2014 Crop 15,000 tons
Total supply 55,000 tons (Note this is the exact figure we forecast in our 14 April 2014 report, pat on the back for our survey department)
Exports 51,000 tons
Domestic cons 4,000 tons
2014 carry in Nil
The weather has been a little cooler than usual, therefore the crop still looks late, we expect harvest to start 2 weeks later than usual, and August shipments will be tight. There has been some hail damage, and there appears to be more fungal disease in the branches than usual possibly the result of the hard frosts on the bark, this has resulted in some cases in tnear total loss of orchards.
We continue to cautiously forecast a crop of 70,000 to 80,000 tons but we increasingly expect that it will be closer to the low side of our estimate.
Business for new crop organic and sulphured has been reported, with the opening prices for new crop conventional fruit some $200 to $300 per ton higher than closing current crop prices. Small sizes will be tight on new crop, and premiums for larger sizes will shrink or possibly disappear.
We will be happy to answer any questions and quote against specific enquiries.