Across the board 2018 Indian walnut crop is almost sold out, meaning shortly we will be getting into the coming crop with negligible stocks both with farmers and exporters. First arrivals of new crop are expected around the last week of September 2019.Shaking news has come in with regards to 2019 crop. Very cold weather in Kashmir Valley across April and May, the blossom of all fruit trees including nuts like walnuts has been severally affected. The crop appears to be not more than 60% of a normal crop. The quantities available of 2019 crop from Indian walnuts will be quite restricted.
The Indian government have imposed penal duty on Californian almonds and walnuts. And now the rate of import duty on Californian walnuts is effectively 122%. Due to imposition of very high import duties over previous year imports, there will be strong domestic demand for Indian walnut kernels particularly of Light grades at reasonably high prices.
Diwali will fall on October 27th 2019 in India, and due to the scarcity of alternatives to Kashmiri walnuts, the suppliers of the same shall increase their prices making offers unfeasible before this rush slows down. Thus, all early deliveries of walnuts will be geared to meet Indian domestic demand and there will be very few quantities available for shipment during October/November 2019. The earliest shipments will be only from second half of November 2019 onward.
Due to mentioned reasons we expect prices to open at levels far higher than last crop prices.