The Walnut board have released the in-demand October shipment report. Total shipments for the month were 93,870 tons, up 2.7% from last year. Total shipments YTD are now 120,102 tons, up 1.7% from last year. Inshell shipments were the star, up 8.2% on the month and 7.8% YTD. Kernel shipments are down 2.5% for the month and down 2.4% YTD. Total receipts are now at 583,199 tons.
Shipments deemed higher than a lot of people predicted. It is now important to consider that the industry is ahead of last year and this year’s crop, potentially 30-60k tons less than last year.
The middle east and Europe, with Turkey, UAE and Germany as the outliers. YTD, the middle east is up 47.1% on inshell and Europe is up 6.87% on inshell and 21.02% on kernels. Germany is up 228% on kernels (down 2.7% on inshell). Although parts of this could be contributed due to them stepping into the market before other regions, it is still very impressive.
Looking at the other major regions, the USA market is nearly flat to last year on kernels. Asia however, was down 62.6% on inshell and 26.7% on kernels.
Since the 2014 crop, the industry has been anywhere from 88.8% – 92.3% received by October 31st.
Processors thoughts are that the numbers are believed to be at the lower end this year. Reasons behind this include the crop starting late but finishing early. A few packers were rumored to be almost fully received by October 31st, with the later ones estimated they were only 90-93% received. Next month’s report however will help clarify crop size.
Landing into the report, we have seen walnuts trading at the following levels: JL Howard at $1.33-1.35, JL Chandler at $1.42-1.43, LHP 20 at $3.25-3.30, LHP 40 at $3.35-3.40, Chandler LHP 20 at $3.35-3.40, Chandler LHP 40 at $3.45-3.50, Chandler LHP 80 $3.80-3.85.
Although the above is a good indication to what degree the market is committed and sold still remains ambiguous, despite this there is indications that packers are ‘historically’ on pace.