Walnut Carryout Estimates 02-2016 << Click Here
Above you will find attached the latest Walnut report for sales through February.
As we expected February was up significantly March shipments last year were much higher because the dock strike hand ended so March/April/May were up quite a bit last year while shipments resumed back to normal after the dock strike. Also sales were quite strong on Chandler product late last year.
If sales remain at the 13% that we has seen through February 2016 and we continue with more government purchases, the carryout into the 2016 crop year will be about 84,000 tons. Just slightly higher than last year’s 72,000 tons. Overall we should see a very stable market with prices for Chandlers holding near the $3.00 into the new crop. Demand overall has been very good with the lower prices in 2015/2016 crop year.
Major Market Regional Sales Status
Korea – Sales of Shelled product for the month of February were up 61% over last year’s February shipping period. Increase primarily due to the dock strike that created a large reduction in sales last year. Overall sales are down 20% for the year. In-Shell sales remain flat.
Japan– The Japanese market is strictly a shelled product market. Sales we up 22% for February but remain down 6% for the year. Prices remain very competitive in the market but should see some strengthening due to current shortages observed in the Chandler market.
China– We are seeing a little rebound in the Chinese market. February in-shell sales were up 45% and shelled product up 164%. Overall for the year in-shell is down 40% and shelled product is up 45%. The in-shell market is still 6 times large so reduced sales in this category has a tremendous impact.
Asai Overall – In-shell sales for the month are up 15%, for the year up 2% . Shelled for the month are up 29% and for the year up less than 1%.
Europe Overall- In-Shell sales for the month are down 14 % , for the year up 5%. Shelled for the month are up 9% and for the year up 40%
Middle East Overall– In Shell sales for the month are up 21%, for the year up 56%. Shelled for the month are up 82% and for the year up 76%.
Right now the Linden area is pretty much sold out of Chandler product. We have been going to processors in the Northern Sacramento area to find Chandlers. We are only finding one container here and there. It is absolutely moving towards a completely sold out position. Some importers are starting to look at Non-Chandler LHP 20% products. Colour remains very good on the non-Chandler material and is the next best option in light of a sold out Chandler market.
With the reduced availability of California Chandlers , we will be looking at our Chilean partner to market Chilean Chandler product. We will be getting pricing on the Chilean product next week and will advise availability and target prices.