Almond Market Report, June 2023
The June 2023 shipment data for almonds reveals a significant decline in shipments compared to the previous year. June Shipment volume stood at 187 million pounds, marking a 33% decrease. However, new sales for the same period experienced a positive trend, reaching 155 million pounds, indicating a 30% increase. (colconut.com)
The sold position for almonds in June was reported at 2.829 million pounds, showing a slight decline of 3% compared to the previous year. Additionally, commitments for June were recorded at 451 million pounds, representing a marginal 1% decrease.
Examining the crop for 2022, the carry-in stock from the previous season was 837 million pounds, reflecting a substantial 38% increase. Receipts year-to-date reached 2,568 million pounds, indicating a growth rate of 12%. However, shipments for the same period experienced a slight decline of 3.5%, amounting to 2,377 million pounds. The stock or inventory for the crop stood at 976 million pounds, showing a decrease of 2.4%.
Analyzing specific market segments, the US home market experienced a decline of 4.8% in almond shipments. Europe faced a significant setback, with a 41% reduction in shipments, while India experienced a substantial decline of 61%. The Middle East/North Africa region witnessed a decline of 59% in shipments due to piled-up stocks.
Considering the remaining month of the shipping season, it is expected that approximately 770-800 million pounds of old stock will carry over into the new season. This carryover is higher than the anticipated reduction, indicating a need for increased sales. Moreover, new crop sales for almonds are significantly lower compared to previous years, with only 122 million pounds sold to date, compared to 236 million pounds in the previous year, 326 million pounds in 20/21, and 458 million pounds in 19/20.
The focus for the almond market is now on selling both the remaining old crop, which has four months' worth of shipments in stock, and the new crop, which has only seen less than 5% of its projected volume sold. This emphasis on sales is crucial to stimulate demand in the main markets. (colconut.com)
Looking ahead, the 2023 objective crop estimate reveals a surprising figure of 2.6 billion pounds, exceeding previous estimates. This increase is primarily attributed to the larger size of almonds found. The number of bearing acres continues to grow, reaching 1,380,000 acres, indicating a 2.2% increase. Additionally, there has been an increase in the number of trees per acre, influenced by the planting of newer varieties, which grew by 18%. However, the yield per acre saw a slight decrease of 1%, amounting to 1,880 pounds. As a result, the overall forecast for the 2023 crop is estimated at 2,600,000 pounds, reflecting a 1.3% increase.
The higher-than-expected crop estimate, combined with the larger carryover of old crop stock, suggests that the total supply for the 2023/2024 season will be similar to previous years. Spain, in particular, is experiencing a record crop and will likely compete to gain market share in Europe. With demand currently lacking and low new crop purchases, the market needs to find a new price balance and regain confidence to increase transaction volume. (colconut.com)