Almond Market Update 17.01.24

Overview

The December Position Report unveiled strong shipments for the ongoing crop year, reaching a total of 229 million pounds - marking the second-highest December on record. Although a 4% decrease from the previous month, this signifies an 11% surge compared to the same period last year. Export shipments remain a key driver of momentum, reaching 173 million pounds and reflecting a 12% increase from the previous year. Additionally, domestic shipments experienced an 8% uptick, reaching 57 million pounds.

Shipments

India

Shipments for the month reached 38.6 million pounds, indicating a notable 16% rise compared to the previous year. Year-to-date shipments to India remain robust, surpassing last season's figures by an impressive 28%. The local demand remains strong, and the industry maintains a balanced state owing to supply constraints caused by delayed arrivals. All incoming products are seamlessly flowing through the system, with no cargo being stored. Importers have consistently enjoyed profits since the start of the season. This positive trend bodes well for the industry, suggesting sustained activity throughout January and beyond.

China/Hong Kong/Vietnam

Shipments to the region totalled 13 million pounds for the month. Year-to-date shipments have gained momentum, currently standing 21% ahead of last season's pace, surpassing the previous year by 8%. Vietnam has maintained a strong pace, and has exceeded last year by an impressive 120%. California shipments to China were initially slow at the beginning of the crop year , as importers opted for more economical options from Vietnam. However, activity revived in December, with the market processing and working through inventories in preparation for Chinese New Year. Consumer demand during the holiday season will serve as a barometer for shipment expectations in the coming months.

Europe

In December, shipments amounted to 62.3 million pounds, marking a 4% increase from the previous year and contributing to a 9% year-to-date growth compared to the prior season. The region maintains a strong performance, positioning itself favourably for the upcoming holiday season.

Middle East

Middle East shipments in December amounted to 23.6 million pounds, experiencing an 11% decrease compared to the previous year but showing a 7% increase for the season. The conclusion of Ramadan purchases and challenges in the Red Sea have complicated product transit. Products need to arrive by mid-February to be processed and available for Ramadan. In recent weeks, local prices have strengthened as inventories tightened due to prolonged transit times delaying product arrivals. The demand outlook for this region remains positive, with buyers motivated to expedite product movement to rebuild their stock and safeguard against potential further delays if the Red Sea situation persists.

USA

December witnessed strong shipments, totalling 56 million pounds and showing an 8% increase for the month. This positive performance allowed the market to make some gains, positioning year-to-date shipments up by 0.5%. However, concerns persist regarding demand in the largest market, with commitments consistently lagging month after month, now down by 16% compared to the previous year. Buyers are actively evaluating their evolving demand and opting for short-term positions when making bookings.

Commitments

The total commitments amount to 637 million pounds, reflecting an 11% decrease compared to the previous year. New sales for the month reached 219 million pounds, indicating a 7% decline from the corresponding period last year. Overall, new sales surpass last year's pace by 8%, primarily propelled by export volume. Considering a crop estimate of 2.45 billion pounds, shipments and commitments currently account to 57% of total supply, compared to 53% at the same point last year. With sustained growth in shipments and new sales, coupled with expectations of a smaller crop, many in the industry anticipate a carryout below 600 million pounds.

Crop

The total crop receipts for the year amount to 2.228 billion pounds, trailing last season by 6% With the majority of the 2023 crop already delivered, industry experts predict the crop size to be approximately 2.45 billion pounds. Rejects are anticipated to be higher, ranging between 3-4% compared to the historical rate of 2%. This forecast suggests a potential total supply for the 2023 crop year at 3.15 billion pounds, reflecting a 7% decrease compared to the previous year.

via Blue Diamond Growers