Almond Shipment Update 19.12.23
In November, the momentum of shipments persisted, achieving the second-highest record for that month at 238 million pounds, showing a 16.6% increase from the previous year. This notable performance is attributed to the sustained strong demand in export markets, contributing 177 million pounds for the month and indicating a 25% growth compared to the same period last year. Domestic shipments faced challenges, totalling 60 million pounds for the month, reflecting a 2% decline from the previous year. Despite this setback in domestic shipments, the overall year-to-date figures paint an optimistic picture, showcasing a robust lead of 9.6% compared to the same period last year.
India
Shipments for the month reached 38 million pounds, indicating a notable 14% increase compared to the previous year. This performance contributes to a year-to-date growth of 31% in shipments to the region. India remains a key destination for inshell, and its flexibility on quality parameters makes it an attractive market, particularly given the high quality of this year's crop. Although demand was active in November, it has quieted in recent weeks as vessels arrive to replenish local stocks. Currently, India is focused on managing existing inventory, which has temporarily pressured local prices. Despite this, consumption remains robust, and activity is anticipated to pick up again in early January.
China/Hong Kong/Vietnam
For the month, shipments amounted to 23 million pounds, showing a substantial increase of 122% compared to the previous year. Year-to-date shipments are now up by 7% compared to the same period last year. Notably, Vietnam has experienced a remarkable 114% increase year-to-date, playing a significant role in driving growth in this region. In contrast, shipments to China continue to lag, experiencing a 3% decrease for the season. Importers are consistently turning to Vietnam as a duty-friendly option to meet consumer demand. Monitoring demand will be crucial through the Chinese New Year holiday to assess the need for inventory replenishment.
Europe
Shipments in November recorded a 17% increase compared to the previous year and a 13% increase compared to the preceding month. Year-to-date shipments have accelerated, now standing at a 10.5% increase versus the same period last season. The region anticipated strong shipments as it positioned itself for the upcoming holiday season. In recent weeks, buyers have remained active, securing nonpareil and polliniser kernels, laying the groundwork for another robust month of shipments in December.
Middle East
In November, shipments to the Middle East saw a 22% increase compared to the previous year, contributing a 12% overall increase for the season. The Middle East remains a strong and dependable market for the California almond industry, driven by affordable prices that sustain demand. Although the shipment window for Ramadan has concluded, ongoing demand is anticipated as the region continues to make purchases for consumption following the holiday.
USA
November shipments, totalling 60 million pounds, were lower than the previous year by approximately 2%, equivalent to a decrease of 1.3 million pounds. In the initial four months of the season, sales amounted to 241 million pounds, trailing last year by just over 1%. Commitments have shown consistent improvement each month, with November trailing last year by 13%, a big jump from the 23% lag observed just two months ago. The post-holiday season demand will play a crucial role in determining customer inventory levels, commitments, and shipments as the crop year progresses into its second half.
Commitments
Total commitments currently amount to 647 million pounds, reflecting a 6.3% decrease compared to the same period last year. New sales for the month reached 208 million pounds, indicating a 4% increase over the previous year and marking the fourth consecutive month of higher year-over-year sales. Based on an assumed 2.40 billion bound crop, current shipments and commitments account for 50% of the total supply, up from 45% in the previous year. While the first four months of the crop year have been strong, ongoing sales are crucial to sustaining a strong shipment trajectory and reducing carryout to more reasonable levels.
via Blue Diamond Growers