Californian Almond Market Update, 15.08.2022
The Almond Board of California has released the July Position Report with shipments of 169 million pounds compared to last year’s 229 million pounds for a decrease of 26 percent. It had been widely expected that shipments would be down due to the Trucker Strike at Port of Oakland and key vessels being rolled from July into August.
YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS: The 2021 campaign has come close, with shipments for the year at 2.633 billion pounds compared to 2.898 billion pounds last year for a 9.12 percent decrease.
CROP RECEIPTS: The official 2021 crop receipts are now at 2,922 billion pounds compared to the 2020 crop at 3,106 billion pounds for a decrease of 5.95 percent.
MARKET: The almond prices during July and domestic at the beginning of August have weakened slightly in anticipation of a disappointing July shipment report. It has been known for weeks that shipments would be off due to the Trucker Strike and major vessels being rolled, which impacted our July shipments. The projected ending carry out for the 2021 crop will be at 838 million pounds. Sales in July were at 63 million pounds for the old crop and 62 million pounds for the new crop. The New crop is now sold at 11.5% percent based on a 2.6 billion pound crop and 8.9% percent for the new crop plus carry-in. Sales on new crops have been slower this season as packers and buyers were focused on moving the current carry-over inventory rather than the new crop. Buyers have been more cautious and conservative in their new crop purchases due to the following key points:
1. Strong Dollar and weak local currency.
2. Inflation;
3. War in some regions and concerns over new wars in other regions,
4. Consumers shopping conservatively and buying more staple food products,
5. Larger local inventories of almonds;
6. Impact of floaters arriving into local markets already flush with the product.
One market to highlight is India. India only received 400 containers in July, which is low compared to the previous three months and will assist the local market in moving its sizable inventories now. The price of almonds is extremely low compared to other tree nuts, so they are excellent value for your money!
2022 Harvest.
It has officially started! Trees have started shaking for the past two weeks in the water-stressed orchards. For some areas, the stressed orchards started shaking about 5-7 days earlier than last year. Your solid, strong orchards have started in earnest this week, shaking throughout the state. No information yet on quality as it is too early. Reports from the West Side is production is lower than expected for the quantity of Nonpareil crop thus far. The objective Crop Estimate is at 2.6 Billion Pounds, while this past crop just finished at 2.92 Billion Pounds, so our new crop is over 300 million shorter than last year's crop.
Outlook
We know the August shipments will be strong due to the July trucker strike and major vessels being rolled from July into August. Thus, the August shipments are expected to be good with the large carry-over combined with the early shipments of new crops. The unknown is the impact of the world economy, strong dollar, war concerns, inflation, and overall conservative sentiments globally. From the grower side, overall almond pricing is extremely low and near the production costs on many items, so growers are not motivated to participate in the markets at these current price levels.